RTÉ: Prof Philip Lane to be next CBoI Governer


#61

But Robert Watt moved from being an ordinary jobbing consultant in Indecon with no management responsibility to my knowledge and even if he did Indecon is a small organisation with fewer than 20 staff to being sec gen of the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform. He himself had zero management experience when he took over this job.


#62

:smiley: You’re a total spoofer and you got caught out.

No s***! You’re the one trying to link the two!

I see Andy has already picked up on the lack of evidence for this too.


#63

… or you are just rude (and a bit weird) … and over confident about knowledge of markets :smiley:

… it was your (naive) comment … don’t try an dis-own it :smiley:

… didn’t see Andy’s quote, but did past a simple link to one of the ECB’s programs.

As I said earlier, don’t waste your time with an anonymous blogger like me, speak with someone on a main wholesale bond / funding desk and they will explain it to you (unless of course you have alienated them too) :wink:


#64

That may well be. I’m not arguing that Robert Watt should have got the job over Philip Lane, nor that Philip Lane is not the best candidate for the job. I’m merely saying that I don’t agree with YM’s point that a CBoI Governor doesn’t need management skills and that policy expertise is enough.


#65

Ah here, Observer, youre talking out of your hat.

I double checked to be 100% sure I didn’t miss one of your posts.
You posted one link on this thread which you suggest supports your claim that the ECB (frankfurt) is allowing irish banks borrow money for 0% to buy irish govt debt.

The link you posted was actually a reference to the ecb Securities Lending Facility. This is where primary dealers are allowed borrow Securities owned by the Eurosystem. This is a securities liquidity facility to ensure QE


#66

I thought you would appreciate the nuance of the ECB swapping weaker collateral (which is then repo’ed) ? It was only one example (it shows how flexible they are).

This is not advanced stuff ? Wholesale banks didn’t just produce capital out of thin air from Q3 2012 onwards to flatten sov yields. It is still going on today (although the QE will reduce it over time as the ECB buys back the sov bonds it has been financing banks to buy).


#67

I didn’t finish my post.

What your article linked to was primary dealers doing reverse repos with the Eurosystem i.e. they are borrowing sovereign debt owned by the Eurosystem which theyve to return within a week. The Banks are not giving the Eurosystem anything - i.e. there is no crap collateral being posted with the ECB like you said. This is the polar opposite of what you’ve claimed.

This is a liquidity facility, to ensure QE doesn’t buy up the whole market.

Furthermore, this is also operated at NCB level, not central ECB level.

I’m leaving this here. Posts are circular.


#68

Maybe, but I’ve seen excellent managers in large organisations (larger than the CBoI) waste their efforts in micromanaging their juniors. A complete waste of everyone’s time. Leadership in large organisations is different to management - leadership is setting the tone, the personal standard. Not everyone can do that.

And again, we’re talking about the governor of the Central Bank who sits on the ECB policy committee - that is, makes banking policy for the whole of the eurozone and for the EU beyond to some degree - not the CEO of a business. The roles are different and CBs have in the past fallen down when they have leaders with a poor grasp of banking, finance and economics at their head.


#69

irishtimes.com/business/eco … -1.3375525

Lane seems to be quite respected as an economist; reasonable chance of getting the ECB VP spot

previously

ft.com/content/e04c12a2-fe9 … 0ad2d7c5b5


#70

Philip Lane sets out his stall to MEPs in bid for ECB post

irishtimes.com/business/fin … -1.3392359


#71

Philip Lane deserves a lot of credit for standing up against the political forces who wanted to water down the mortgage criteria. Imagine if those fuckers had got their way!


#73

I was, sadly, thinking the same thing.
House prices are now being “limited” a little around Dublin by LTV/LTI rules, and I’ve a feeling this will be publicised by developers/MSM as “de peoples cant borrow enough monies because of the awful rules”.
Hence pressure to just “ease” that 3.5LTI up to 4/4.5LTI…
They’ve already circumvented the LTV with the new gaff/ FTB tax rebate.

Though I do remember reading (maybe here?) that the CBoI had to run any changes to the LTI rules through ECB? Was that just while we were still in the bailout programme? Or was I just imagining that?


#74

This is true, but I don’t see that it’s harmful.

The LTV rules are a macroprudential lending measure, not a savings test. If there was a savings test a large source of deposits (from parental gifts and inheritance) would be cut off.


#75

rte.ie/news/business/2018/0219/941834-lane-ecb-nomination/

Spain’s FM got the nod


#76

Lane is relatively young - his day will come. Maybe as chief economist? Or for some other big job at EU/IMF level


#77

commentary in FT was always that he wasn’t going to get it but that it would give him exposure for chief economist (or something) - or another exec role after Draghi goes?

re the conspiracy of moving Lane upstairs - well maybe but


#78

Central Bank governor fails to rule out possibility of property market crash

irishtimes.com/business/eco … -1.3421091

what a nonsense headline. of course prices will fall at some point…


#79

Interesting, when Sean Neary told us that “fundamentals were sound” it was an excuse for why no crash was imminent. Now we’re told sound fundamentals are no guarantee of future stability.

I’m not an economist but I presume a “tail risk” is something that could turn around and bite you on the ass :smiling_imp:


#80

It’s worth pointing out w.r.t “buying a house is certainly not a one-way bet” that simply “buying a house” was not the cause of the last crash.


#81

Heads prices go up and I pay the mortgage.

Tails prices go down and I stop paying and stay in it anyway.