S&P cuts Ireland outlook from stable to negative

That’s all I have right now.

heres reuters on it

Um, what fiscal stimulus would that be?

Fuck me, we are so fucking fucked it’s not fucking true. Excuse my French.

So are there any AA rated eurozone countries? What does an AA rated country normally pay for euro debt? (versus a AAA).

Does anyone remember the monoline insurance fiasco? The first step in the debt death tango was a downgrade on outlook. Same for the banks. This is more than a warning shot from S&P. As the rating agencies have consistently only rerated the horse long after it has been flogged to death, telling us that Irish sovereign debt will be put out to stud is like telling us there’s a residual value to Shergar.

Here’s how the 10 year spread of Irish goverment bond yields over German bunds has moved over the last year.

1 year ago 19 bps
6 months ago 45 bps
3 months ago 61 bps
1 month ago 118 bps
5 days ago 129 bps
today 141 bps

Doesn’t look very AAA does it?

Thought it was 176bp on benchmarks? Anyhow, when you consider that this is on fairly low rates, the percentage spread is horrific

Now in irish times:


Look, no one gives a monkeys what Standard and Poor’s have to say about our economy, it is now a completely discredited company along with the other main rating agencies who played no small part in the catastrophic situation now engulfing this and many other countries.
We make up our own mind based on RELIABLE information about what is going on, the last place anyone now turns for trustworthy ratings information is to a company like S&P.
And why hasn’t anyone there been put behind bars yet??
No doubt the I T still things what S&P has to say is news, as usual showing how far behind the curve the paper is on so many matters.

While the raters may have problems, your implication is “this is pants, were grand”. No, were not.

Rubbish, rubbish, rubbish.

The ratings from the rating agencies are used by all major financial institutions and central banks to assess the value of the securities they support. It is enshrined in law in many countries that these ratings be used (for example in pension law in some countries).

Should Ireland be downgraded, there will be a surge of selling as pension companies dump Irish government bonds and bank bonds. It will lead to a further funding crisis for the banks - anyone know the gap between AAA and AA paper for banks?

Whether the rating agencies know what they are doing is an entirely different matter (personally, unless you are talking about Egan Jones, I doubt they do), but make no mistake, the ratings currently matter.

Lenihan seems to think it’s important anough to comment on

I think we need a taskforce.
Who should we put on it?

Brian X2
Dessie G
D Begg
John “on the ditch” Hurley
Country T
Willie O’Dea :laughing:

When S&P see the dream team of social partners we have assembled to handle this financial crisis, they will surely change their minds.

or “ah jeeze lads, willya gimme a minute here”
No, they wont Brian

are bang-bang and forty coats available?

And some people want to us to maintain public spending at current levels.

Didn’t S&P get the memo about not talking down the economy?

Ratings of European Countries (scroll to bottom of page)

www2.standardandpoors.com/portal … 51572.html

This is all happening for Ireland at an alarming pace, the government need sot get the finger out very quickly. VAT has to come in line with the UK or close to it, excess/wasteful public spending eliminated, efficiencies in public services increased, quangos eliminated, and handouts (too many to mention) slashed. The bank issue is dragging on for way too long and this is the result. The shagging guarantee is now holding the country to ransom, the gov. needs to force the banks to clean the books or esle nationalize them all, ot hell with overpriced preference shares.
The international markets are going to have a field day with Ireland very soon

Nice :laughing:

And in other unrelated news :


The Dail is back in two weeks time. The feckin markets, a la Biffo, will have to wait till hes ready. And he needs to talk to the social partners. And set up a forum. And take soundings.