A Danish bank, Saxo, comes out with an annual ‘10 Outrageous Predictions’ every year.
In their own words, they are ‘‘an annual thought exercise to predict rare but high impact ‘black swan’ events that are beyond the realm of normal market expectations’’.
These are not random ideas, but are based on the genuine belief that ''the odds of these events happening are somewhat higher than what is currently priced into the market".
The 10 are …
(German) Bunds yields will fall to 2.25%
VIX will fall to 14
CNY (China Yuan Renminbi) will be devalued by 5% vs. USD
Gold will fall to $870 in 2010 but will rise to $1500 in 2014
USD/JPY to reach 110
Angry American public to form third party in the US
The US Social Security Trust Fund will go bust
The price of sugar will drop one third
TSE Small Index will rise by 50%
US trade balance will turn positive for first time in 34 years