.
Just in case anyone forgot,
Second Wave of U.S. meltdown starting about now.https://www.smileyvault.com/albums/forum/smileyvault-popcorn.gif
70% of Option Arms might default?!
From InvestorWords.com
The characteristics of an Alt-A mortgage wouldn’t be unfamiliar to the average Irish broker or the mainstream lenders here.
- Reduced borrower income and asset documentation (for example, “stated income”, “stated assets”, “no income verification”)
- Borrower debt-to-income ratios above what would be “normal”
- Credit history with too many problems to qualify for an “agency” loan, but not so many as to require a subprime loan
- Loan to value ratios (percentage of the property price being borrowed) above at higher than “normal” rates.
Blue Horseshoe
That’s true and Hilarious, practically every mortgage made in most of the last decade in Ireland was in reality Alt-A or sub-prime.
Average Prime mortgage =
30 year fixed at about 6.5% ,
20% down-payment ,
no more than 30-33% of back end income (net disposable income) for mortgage payment.
My friend has a 100% , 35 year , 525k tracker(.9%) mortgage from AIB he got in may 2008,
The same type of house on the the next street in Sandyford is asking 350k and is still a ripoff.
A sure we just don’t have a sub-prime problem in Ireland that’s only in America.
Edit: I believe he could also have had interest only for the first 2 years.
This report, while still relevant, is from December 2008.
The theory is that the low interest rates now mean that interest rate resets on ARMs aren’t going to be a problem. I think there are a couple of problems with this.
- Refinancing a negative equity mortgage. The FHA has been looking at bending its rules to allow these to be qualifying and so cheap. ( calculatedriskblog.com/2010/ … ative.html ).
- While ‘vanilla’ hybrid ARMs offer a fixed period followed by a floating rate are addressed by low interest rates, option and Cash flow ARMs are not. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adjustable … M_Variants . In these cases, the resets are from a reduced payment to full amortisation (it is more properly referred to as a recast as the interest rate may not change, but the terms of repayment do).
See the wonderfully coherent CR for more details: calculatedriskblog.com/2010/ … chart.html
Really was ludicrous when you look back on it, my brother got into a similar situation with the flat that he bought although on a lesser scale. Easy to say it now but the government should have regulated much more effectively.
Ever wonder why the reset graph falls off a cliff near the end 2012,
yep there are so few mortgages been issued now and over the last few years,
down 60 - 70%. How can they possibly stop the collapse of house prices with
such drops in lending no matter what government program they come up with.
September 5, 2010
Housing Woes Bring New Cry: Let Market FallThe unexpectedly deep plunge in home sales this summer is likely to force the Obama administration to choose between future homeowners and current ones, a predicament officials had been eager to avoid.
Over the last 18 months, the administration has rolled out just about every program it could think of to prop up the ailing housing market, using tax credits, mortgage modification programs, low interest rates, government-backed loans and other assistance intended to keep values up and delinquent borrowers out of foreclosure. The goal was to stabilize the market until a resurgent economy created new households that demanded places to live.
As the economy again sputters and potential buyers flee — July housing sales sank 26 percent from July 2009 — there is a growing sense of exhaustion with government intervention. Some economists and analysts are now urging a dose of shock therapy that would greatly shift the benefits to future homeowners: Let the housing market crash.
When prices are lower, these experts argue, buyers will pour in, creating the elusive stability the government has spent billions upon billions trying to achieve.
“Housing needs to go back to reasonable levels,” said Anthony B. Sanders, a professor of real estate finance at George Mason University. “If we keep trying to stimulate the market, that’s the definition of insanity.”
The further the market descends, however, the more miserable one group — important both politically and economically — will be: the tens of millions of homeowners who have already seen their home values drop an average of 30 percent… nytimes.com/2010/09/06/business/ … ?src=busln

Arbitrager:
That’s just pure unadulterated corruption !
Aha! By the time I saw the FDIC’s refutation of that video I’d forgotten where I’d seen it posted. Now that this thread has been bumped, I noticed it again. FWIW, here’s what the FDIC says:
"It is unfortunate but necessary to respond to blatantly false claims in a web video that is being circulated about the loss-sharing agreement between the FDIC and OneWest Bank. Here are the facts: OneWest has not been paid one penny by the FDIC in loss-share claims. The loss-share agreement is limited to 7% of the total assets that OneWest services, and OneWest must first take more than $2.5 billion in losses before it can make a loss-share claim on owned assets. In order to be paid through loss share, OneWest must have adhered to the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP).
The producers of this video perpetuate other falsehoods. The FDIC has not requested to borrow money from the Treasury Department. Indeed, we continue to be funded by the banking industry through assessments, not by taxpayers as claimed in the video.
This video has no credibility. Regardless of the personal or professional motivations behind its production, there is always a responsibility to be factually correct and transparent. The FDIC made available a fact sheet on the day that the sale of IndyMac was announced that details the terms of the contract. It’s too bad that the creators of this video opted to premise it on falsehoods."
It is a bank holiday weekend in the US ( Labour Day today). The New York Times has relentless probed the double leg of the dip in a series of articles over the past few days. Here is another version of the chart Arbitrager started the thread with. Look at the right hand scale
https://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/files/2009/05/reset-chart-for-blog-april.jpg
Same data rebased to when subprime resets were still a problem
https://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/files/2009/05/reset-chart-image-for-blog.jpg
.
About 2 million houses will be seized by lenders through 2011.
U.S. Home Seizures Reach Record for Third Time in Five Months
U.S. home seizures reached a record for the third time in five months in August as lenders completed the foreclosure process for thousands of delinquent owners, according to RealtyTrac Inc.
Bank repossessions climbed 25 percent from a year earlier to 95,364, the most since the Irvine, California-based data provider began keeping records in 2005. Foreclosure filings, including default and auction notices, fell 5 percent to 338,836. One out of every 381 U.S. households received a filing, RealtyTrac said today in a statement.
“We’re on track for a record year for homes in foreclosure and repossessions,” Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac’s senior vice president, said in a telephone interview. “There is no improvement in the underlying economic conditions.”
Foreclosures are contributing to a growing housing supply that may add as many as 12 million homes to the U.S. market. Demand is crumbling amid high unemployment and following the expiration of a federal homebuyer tax credit in April. Sales of new and existing homes fell in July to the lowest level on record. Home prices have fallen 28 percent since 2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index of values in 20 U.S. cities.
About 2 million houses will be seized by lenders through 2011, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. Home sales this year will be 7 percent below the 2009 total, Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. mortgage finance company, said yesterday in a report… bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-16/ba … onths.html
Ally’s GMAC Mortgage Halts Home Foreclosures in 23 States → bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-2 … -n-y-.html
Ally Financial Inc.’s GMAC Mortgage unit told brokers and agents to halt foreclosures on homeowners in 23 states including Florida, Connecticut and New York.
GMAC Mortgage may “need to take corrective action in connection with some foreclosures” in the affected states, according to a two-page memo dated Sept. 17 and obtained by Bloomberg News. Ally Financial spokesman James Olecki confirmed the contents of the memo. Brokers were told to stop evictions, cash-for-key transactions and lockouts, regardless of occupant type, with immediate effect, according to the document, addressed to GMAC preferred agents.
Interestingly this could be about a legal problem → stopforeclosurefraud.com/
GMAC stops some evictions, foreclosed home sales → google.com/hostednews/ap/art … wD9IBT5VO1
GMAC, which is owned by Detroit-based Ally Financial Inc., did not identify the specific internal issue that prompted the moratorium in its statement, but it has been linked to lawsuits this year surrounding the alleged falsification of a key foreclosure document.
The Florida attorney general is investigating three law firms for allegedly providing fraudulent affidavits that identify who holds the original mortgage note in foreclosure cases. In Florida and in other states, this document allows lenders to bypass a costly trial and proceed with a foreclosure.
Two of the three firms being investigated — the Law Office of Marshall C. Watson and the Law Offices of David J. Stern PA — have represented GMAC in foreclosure proceedings. And the person who signed many of these allegedly false affidavits was an employee of GMAC.
**
In a deposition taken in December, GMAC employee Jeffrey Stephan said he signed 10,000 affidavits or similar documents a month without personally verifying who the mortgage holder was. That means many foreclosures could have taken place based on false documentation. Stephan could not be located for comment.
**
“That’s hundreds of thousands of cases,” said Ice Legal PA attorney Christopher Immel who took the deposition. “And there are other people at other places who sign these kinds of documents as well.”GMAC did not address how many homeowners would be affected by its suspension of evictions and foreclosure sales. It expects the issues to be resolved within a few weeks or, at latest, by year-end. The company didn’t respond to questions beyond its statement.
When quoting the Case Shiller index on a regular basis without taking
the whole picture into consideration, you get the equivalent of lipstick on a rhinoceros.
Even though it may not look very pretty, it still looks a lot prettier than it actually is, and dangerous too!
Notice how the Case Shiller index kept increasing in value as the economic housing activity in this country dropped off sharply!
By the time the CS index turned down by a single percentage point, home sales value had already declined by 19%,
which meant when you saw prices starting to decline you would already have encountered a problem selling your house.
For those that wait to hold out for that best price, their issues are just compounded over time as both price and activity tumult"…zerohedge.com/article/those-who- … -are-missi
https://boombustblog.com/media/wpmu/uploads/blogs.dir/1/files/2010/10/image015.png
moneywatch.bnet.com/investing/bl … arket/511/
The Foreclosure Mills: How This Could Really Hurt the Housing Market
Oct 4, 2010
By **Jane Bryant Quinn **The law finally caught up with the home foreclosure mills. Some of the leading lenders and mortgage servicers — including Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and GMAC Home Mortgage, a unit of Ally Financial — have conceded that they’ve mistakenly filed for foreclosure based on faulty or even forged affidavits. At some mortgage service firms, an employee might robo-sign as many as 6,000 legal documents a week, making it impossible to verify the facts.
All of these borrowers are in default and most will almost certainly lose their homes. Some, however, might have been able to recover if the lender had offered to modify their loan. Their gripe, a fair one, is that lenders have been fatally unresponsive and in too big a hurry to evict. My MoneyWatch colleague, Ilyce Glink, says they’re in “loan mod hell.”
Various types of moratoriums are now in place in the 23 states that put foreclosures through the courts. Foreclosures in the other states are less affected, because borrowers can’t bring a challenge to a judge. Even so, title insurers are taking more time to examine documents, which can drag the process out.
What does this mean to people buying and selling homes? Plenty.
nytimes.com/2010/10/04/busin … tgage.html
Flawed Paperwork Aggravates a Foreclosure Crisis
Published: October 3, 2010
By GRETCHEN MORGENSONAs some of the nation’s largest lenders have conceded that their foreclosure procedures might have been improperly handled, lawsuits have revealed myriad missteps in crucial documents.
The flawed practices that GMAC Mortgage, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America have recently begun investigating are so prevalent, lawyers and legal experts say, that additional lenders and loan servicers are likely to halt foreclosure proceedings and may have to reconsider past evictions.
Problems emerging in courts across the nation are varied but all involve documents that must be submitted before foreclosures can proceed legally. Homeowners, lawyers and analysts have been citing such problems for the last few years, but it appears to have reached such intensity recently that banks are beginning to re-examine whether all of the foreclosure papers were prepared properly.
In some cases, documents have been signed by employees who say they have not verified crucial information like amounts owed by borrowers. Other problems involve questionable legal notarization of documents, in which, for example, the notarizations predate the actual preparation of documents — suggesting that signatures were never actually reviewed by a notary.