Sherry Fitz: Second hand house prices fall 18pc in 08

verbatim · January 5, 2009, 4:54pm

**Second hand house prices fall 18pc in 08 **
businessworld.ie/livenews.ht … ngnews.htm

Second hand house prices slumped by 18.1pc last year after falling
by 7.1pc during the final quarter of 2008, according to Sherry
FitzGerald, Ireland’s largest estate agents

This is the highest level of price deflation ever recorded in the
Irish market, it said

The results for the Dublin market are even more marked with price
reductions of 7.8pc in the fourth quarter and 20.1pc in the year

The true extent of the market correction however is more
significant than this figure suggests. The first evidence of
market correction began during the third quarter of 2006. Assuming
the market peak occurred in June 2006, this suggests a market
correction in Dublin of approximately 30pc in nominal terms over
the 30 month period

The Cork market recorded price deflation of 5.2pc in the quarter
and 15.3pc in the twelve months to December

Commenting on the results Marian Finnegan, Chief Economist, Sherry
FitzGerald Group said; "The results of the Sherry FitzGerald
barometer of house prices give us a clear insight into the
correction which has taken place in the Irish and perhaps in
particular the Dublin property market. The combination of this
dramatic price reduction and the 1.75pc interest rate cut which we
have enjoyed over the past 6 months has had a very positive impact
on the affordability of property, a factor which bodes well for
enhanced activity levels in the weeks and months ahead.
An analysis of the purchaser profile in the year to date reveals
that first time buyers bought approximately 31pc of the properties
traded in that period, compared to 36pc during 2007. Not
surprisingly investors were less active in the year to date
purchasing 9pc of the properties traded in the period, compared to
16pc in 2007

The trend of rental inflation which has been a feature of this
market during 2006 and 2007 effectively ended in 2008 with the CPI
index of privately owned rents falling by 10.8pc in the twelve
months to November 2008, compared to an annual average growth of 9.
98pc in 2007

An analysis of the profile of vendors who sold their property
through Sherry FitzGerald in the year to date revealed that 21pc
of vendors were selling investment properties, this compares to
29pc in 2007. Furthermore, approximately 35pc of vendors sold with
the intention of purchasing a larger property. Finally,
approximately 13pc of vendors were selling their home to relocate
to a different county within Ireland

Come on Marian, don’t be coy, is now a good time to buy?

spqr64 · January 5, 2009, 4:59pm

That woman gives me a pain in the gonads and Im not joking. Would someone pleae tell her the f***ing Celtic tiger is dead and now we are waiting to bury canny Mc Savvy, the builders, the banks and then her ilk after we dispose of the shower in power.

whizzbang · January 5, 2009, 5:04pm

I haven’t enjoyed the rate cuts. Rabo are paying less on my cash now.

Captain_Bolitho · January 5, 2009, 5:09pm

Dear Seller,
We have finally realized that the pyramidal line “get on the ladder before it’s too late” will no longer work for us to get young suckers into a lifetime of debt. Hence, going forward, in a strategic recalibration of our core competencies we no longer wish to pull the wool over their eyes as because we make money from transactions, we have recently noticed that we are actually fucked.
Therefore, in an unprecedented move we are going to apply something close to the truth, loath as we find it. Prices have collapsed so dear seller, please lower your price or we don’t make a penny.
Regarding you, affordability, or first time buyers, we actually don’t give a shit but we need the money.

onestepbehind · January 5, 2009, 5:10pm

I am astonished that this woman is the Chief economist for anyone to be honest. She’s not fit to make tea.

spqr64 · January 5, 2009, 5:11pm

How funny, but how true.

whizzbang · January 5, 2009, 5:37pm

Everyone has the right to make me a cup of tea. EVERYONE.

Captain_Bolitho · January 5, 2009, 5:42pm

No whizzbang, everyone has the right to try to make a cup of tea.

whizzbang · January 5, 2009, 5:55pm

You are quite right, thanks for the correction.

oceanclub · January 5, 2009, 11:03pm

Unfortunately she can’t even win a Plain English Campaign’s Golden Bull award (plainenglish.co.uk)
I nominated her several months ago for the classic line:

“The results of the price barometer illustrate that the reprieve in the pace of price inflation evident in the first quarter has abated”

It’s possible that the campaign doesn’t give awards to non-UK residents, but she doesn’t appear in their list of winners which was issued on 9 Dec:

plainenglish.co.uk/news.htm#awards

Sorry, Marian; I tried my best.

P.

onestepbehind · January 5, 2009, 11:17pm

onestepbehind:

The combination of this
dramatic price reduction and the 1.75pc interest rate cut which we
have enjoyed over the past 6 months has had a very positive impact
on the affordability of property, a factor which bodes well for
enhanced activity levels in the weeks and months ahead.

I am astonished that this woman is the Chief economist for anyone to be honest. She’s not fit to make tea.

Unfortunately she can’t even win a Plain English Campaign’s Golden Bull award (plainenglish.co.uk)
I nominated her several months ago for the classic line:

“The results of the price barometer illustrate that the reprieve in the pace of price inflation evident in the first quarter has abated”

It’s possible that the campaign doesn’t give awards to non-UK residents, but she doesn’t appear in their list of winners which was issued on 9 Dec:

plainenglish.co.uk/news.htm#awards

Sorry, Marian; I tried my best.

P.

I humbly apologise to every tea maker in the world

Green_Bear · January 5, 2009, 11:20pm

Here was last years oeuvre from SF - viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5771

We should also be getting the word from the property economist in CBRE about now as well.

Just like 2007 - viewtopic.php?f=4&t=417

and 2008 - viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5834

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5813

Coles2 · January 5, 2009, 11:35pm

Some vendors are clearly confused by all the spin. It can be hard to set the price…

Stifster · January 5, 2009, 11:47pm

Children’s Favourite Stories by Marian

Humpty Dumpty enjoyed a correction from a wall yesterday.

Jack and Jill corrected themselves down the hill.

etc etc

Proximo · January 6, 2009, 12:55pm

The Bizworld piece does not quote Marian’s article in full … there’s a few extra [MarianSpeakEsperanto] nuggets in there:

sherryfitz.ie/ABOUTUS/NewsItem.aspx?id=506

Looking to the immediate future, Ms Finnegan suggested that "Activity levels will remain somewhat subdued in the opening weeks of 2009 as consumers begin digesting the impact of the price correction and mortgage rate reductions on the affordability of their desired property. That said, we do anticipate an uplift in viewing levels in quarter one leading to an uplift in transaction levels in the post Easter market. Given the limited quantity of new stock coming on the market it is likely that choice will begin to be eroded over coming weeks.

For the Dublin market larger family homes are unlikely to see significant further correction with price reductions of 40-50% already realised and supply levels now tightening. Heightened affordability should result in increased first time buyer activity as the year progresses while investors who have been burned by the turbulent equity markets should begin to revisit the market for self financing properties in good locations.

Taking a longer term perspective Ms Finnegan noted, “Overall we anticipate that 2009 will, in football parlance, be a year of two halves, with a somewhat sluggish opening months replaced with a period of heightened activity and notable price stability.

That said, there is no doubt that the year ahead will remain a challenging one for the economy. However, the pace of price reduction and the speed with which it has transformed the market place, though difficult to digest on an individual basis will facilitate a speedy realignment of market conditions with increased affordability returning to the market place.

In conclusion, Irish property is unlikely to experience again the exceptional performance enjoyed between 1995 and 2006. That said we can take comfort in the fact we can anticipate an evolution to a mature, resolute economy with a solid housing market which is more affordable and accessible to our population than it was at any time in the past decade.

ends -

For any further information, please contact;

Jill O’Neill

Communications Director

Sherry FitzGerald Group

01-2376324 / 086-2523277

Note to Editors:

Founded in 1982, Sherry FitzGerald has grown to become Ireland’s largest firm of estate agents with over 100 owned and franchised branches throughout Ireland.

The Sherry FitzGerald barometer of second-hand house prices is one of the longest established indices of price performance in the Irish residential market. Originally established in 1992 the barometer provides a quarterly analysis of price trends in the Irish second-hand residential market.

23rdbuchan · January 6, 2009, 1:02pm

“That said we can take comfort in the fact we can anticipate an evolution to a mature, resolute economy with a solid housing market which is more affordable and accessible to our population than it was at any time in the past decade.”

Well that wouldn’t be hard now would it?

Forget the last decade, maybe go back another one, or two.

Pill · January 6, 2009, 1:27pm

With approx 150K to lose their jobs in 2009 and most probably a cut in public sector pay of approx 5-7% (who knows) it’s difficult to see any upswing in transactions in the 2nd half of 2009. Another 30-50% falls over the next 2/3 years and we may be there.

conor_mc · January 6, 2009, 2:17pm

Who the fuck is anticipating an evolution to a mature, resolute economy any time soon???

When she says mature, does she mean on its death-bed???

ibelieve · January 8, 2009, 12:27pm

irishtimes.com/newspaper/pro … 58154.html

MORE PRICE CUTS AS SEASON STARTS
ORNA MULCAHY

There will be a drop in the supply of houses new to the market in 2009, but sellers are still having to cut prices - again

THE DUBLIN property market has opened with price cuts at all levels of the market, as sellers digest news of the country’s deteriorating finances and economists’ gloomy forecasts.

Estate agents are taking a fresh look at their stock and advising sellers to reconsider prices. The reassessment is going on at all levels of the market, according to Peter Kenny of Colliers, where notable price cuts include €130,000 off a three-bedroom penthouse in a development at Old Conna, Riverdale, on Dargle Road, Bray, Co Wicklow. The 130sq m (1,400 sq ft) apartment with river views has has been reduced from €560,000 to €430,000.

Colliers has also dropped the price of a four-bedroom semi at Burnaby Mill in Greystones from €720,000 to €580,000 in an effort to attract buyers, while in Dún Laoghaire, Gunne has just dropped the price of an attractive three-bedroom semi with good gardens at 39 Highthorn Park from €700,000 to €660,000.

At other end of the price scale, Colliers has slashed €2 million from the price of a large detached house at 9 Temple Villas in Rathmines. The six-bedroom redbrick had been on the market since last May, priced at €10 million. At Christmas the vendors agreed to drop the price to €8 million.

Some economists have predicted that Irish house prices have considerably further to fall in 2009, but according to Sherry FitzGerald, house prices have already dropped by as much as 40 to 50 per cent since the peak of 2006, with the greatest fall off in values occuring at the upper end of the market.

The average price of a second-hand property in Ireland fell by 7.1 per cent during the final quarter of 2008, according to a report by the agency earlier this week. “This brings the level of price deflation for 2008 to 18.1 per cent - the highest level of price deflation ever recorded in the Irish market,” says the company’s chief economist, Marian Finnegan.

The results for the Dublin market are even more marked with price reductions of 7.8 per cent in the fourth quarter and 20.1 per cent in the year. The combination of this dramatic price reduction and the 1.75 per cent interest rate cutover the past six months has had a very positive impact on the affordability of property, a factor which bodes well for enhanced activity levels in the weeks and months ahead," says Finnegan.

Still, she says, activity levels in the coming weeks will be be “subdued” as consumers begin digesting the impact of the price correction and mortgage rate reductions along with continuing bad news on the economic front.

For the Dublin market, larger family homes are unlikely to see significant further correction with price reductions of 40-50 per cent already realised and supply levels now tightening, says Sherry FitzGerald. The agency has cut prices in the first week of business to stimulate interest. In Dalkey, Co dublin, Inishowen, a large five-bedroom family home on Knocknacree Road with spectacular views across Dublin Bay, is now priced at €2.175 million, down from €3 million last February.

Across the city in Castleknock, Dublin 15, features like a swimming pool and sauna have not been enough to sell Huntington, a lavish five-bedroom redbrick on Outfarm Lane for sale through Newcombe Estates. Sales agent John Newcombe has just dropped the price from €4.5 million to €2.9 million to tempt would-be buyers.

spqr64 · January 8, 2009, 12:38pm

From Orna Mulcahys article

Where did they come up with that idea? Prices have fallen 50% so they are not gonna fall any further? 50% of too much is still too much, jaysus it amazes me the cheek of these people sorry I should have said the f***ing arrogance of these people. The market will decide not ferryshits.