Shifting Market Psychology ?

The last time I remember the subject of market psychology being discussed, I think the consensus amongst posters was that in the main denial was the prevailing sentiment. So what say ye now Pinsters?

https://www.idorfman.com/Charts/sentiment_cycles.jpg

Fear…cripes!

Still denial for me. Creeping into Fear though.

Agree, the Irish are a stubborn bunch, you will find that some people will never come out of denial and in 15 years when property rises (with inflation), they will be convinced that they are right.

My own hunch is that we are on the cusp of slipping from denial to fear as the Spring Selling Season fails to deliver the anticipated revival in the market. The Spring Season last year saw approx 30,000 homes for sale on daftwatch, this year we have in excess of 60,000 that signifies a great deal of denial. But it also indicates that many sellers are becoming increasingly aware of the state of the market. The next three months will be telling.

Definitely Denial. I think we have quite a bit to go before there is fear. We are 6-8 months off fear. The rental market has to collapse first.

I think we are still in denial as the amount of muck in the media is confusing the issue and people are unsure whether its a good time to buy or sell or stick. I think that if the ECB moves up as a result of inflation pressure in the next few weeks we will move through the next two stages very quickly and then the S*** will hit the fan and their will be repercussions threatened right left and centre with blame being cast not where it belongs but on the ECB not the gombeens who perpetrated this. :imp:

Between denial and fear.

Agree - still in denial.
Agree - the spring selling season will be important, but I expect it will be winter and the failure of the autumn season before we see fear. By that stage, it will be obvious if the credit crunch is lasting and the banks have shut up shop on lending. At the moment, they are still lending crazy multiples.

On the rental crash:
askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=78438

Most potential buyers are too scared to buy. Developers are now slashing prices. Banks are tightening up on the lending.

Asking prices down 15-20% from their peak in many areas.

Fear.

Agreed. I have spoken to people who believe that all will be ok because (a) interest rates will decrease; (b) rents will continue to rise.

Coincidentally, these are two lines that have been oft repeated in the media over the last three months.

Em!
Still say it’s fear driving all that VI propaganda at the moment.
They must be well aware of whats transpiring by now.
Collapse of the spring selling season will induce the first manifestations of desperation I think.

Agreed Bertie. Read this response to Charlie Weston’s article in today’s indo that prices will decline further this year.

"Reality is that the decline is slowing down, with a smaller drop in price in 2008 than in 2007. That is a good sign

Posted by Anna Foley | 28.03.08, 08:01 GMT"

Link:
independent.ie/national-news … 29229.html

That’s practically an exact regurgitation of VI comments that were made in the media yesterday.

Still denial, with the likes of Comical, Desperate Dan and Country Tom still being given almost free rein to share their considered views many are still hoping for an upswing. In fact some of my friends recently told me that now would be a good time to buy :unamused:

1 couple I know, acceptance. Lowered their price, got close to it and are thinking of accepting, very level headed folk, happy to beat the rush for the lifeboats. Another couple I know, still in denial but on the brink of fear. They have an IO and are in NE on it as it was a late 2005 purchase. Still won’t lower it though. Mrs FB2 shot the daggers at me the last time I suggested to them to lower the price. I got the whole blip spiel; rates; what it’s worth; recovering market. I went off to the quiet little spot in my mind till they were done. They are passing into fear though. While I’d take no pleasure from either, a high profile closure or a rates rise could set off a firm shift countrywide.

Bah!
OK then fearnial.

There are still a lot in denial but the numbers that realise exactly whats going on are increasing rapidly.
Also there is an increasing number of people that are being more careful about where they deposit their money 8) especially since the Bear Stearns bail out.
People are starting to realise that the country has very little to fall back on in a post construction boom world.

Still just in denial but I think we are only 3 months away from desperation after spring selling season is a complete flop, the arse falls out of the rental market and the ECB springs a suprise on everyone by RAISING rates.

Still in denial. Fear stage 3-6 months off and even further should the ECB cut rates later this year (although I consider this unlikely).