Whether your short or long or you are a bull or bear in it goes here…
Anything to do with the technicals of the mkt’s is fine.
Any news or media related items pick another thread.
I look at price, dont listen to Media type of Guy…
Price pays everything else does not…
**Disclosure:
**
I am not an expert or Qualified in such. Self taught follower of the mkts.
I have had massive losses, so if you follow anything I do be prepared for losses…
Dont forget your fucking Stops…
viewtopic.php?f=19&t=1110&start=2040
Continuation from Gold Thread,
Carry on from above i said if we broke 67.5 on /ES then odds favoured we hit 62.5. Bingo
Currently 1061
THanks for the warning, learned alot yesterday cheers
Boom, your not the only one… All I want is to be right…
Between a number of us we may be able to figure out this mkt…So far so good for me. BUT things do change rather quickly as anyone who has done any kind of trading knows…
Sovereign CDS on the move… Ireland highest widener today…
More than spain now…
Coupelof banks on the move as well, spanish related…
Risk reward favours we hit 67.5 from here…
Add
Dont forgot your stops,
Add 15:04 Bulls need to hold line the sand @ 62.5 for me… 60.75 low…
15:17 internals supporting move up…
15:21 if we dont hit my tgt of 67.5 on this move up, I wont like it one bit for my long…hit 1067@15.17
Gold silver ratio rising curently @70.54 (yg/yi)
I noticed the last 2 days the S&P opened with sharp drops 20/1 and 4/2, were followed by steep declines, 25 and 30 points total respectively. Will be interesting to see if we repeat over the next couple of trading days.
Boom, if your short I think the CDS movements today support that position also I think the Gold Silver ratio rising again supports the move as well…
Silver is getting hammered today…
Here is some cheerleading Give me 1067.50
1067.25 @ 15.31
2 attempts now. not good.
15.38 out 1064
Add
thats what you get for cheerleading .25 of tgt and didnt sell…4.75 pts.
Im finished for a while… Other computer giving problems with Excel.
I turned bullish on stocks last March - got slated here…ok criticised heavily…was told to “read the scary charts thread”. 
Anyway that’s history now. 
I’ve been giving some of my gains back recently, but a 15% or so correct in equity markets was long overdue.
The prognosis now looks similar to the aftermath of the Oil Crisis of '74. It might come as a surprise to some on here, but the world was coming to an end then too. Markets remained fairly flat for the next few years, although one or two sectors significantly outperformed…notably technology**…(hint,hint) **
Hey Flash…I think we will get that 15% correction and more, but when ???
I also think at the moment that those who hold gold in the 1000’s will be wishing they waited for the 900’s…
what concerns me today is the CDS spreads that I am watching
Dubai Emirate again climbing.
Russia climbing near 200
Spanish bank widening
Lot of risk out there…at the moment, this is not over by any chance…
Also some of the HY Corps are rolling over…
Im neutral at the moment (apart from long dated put Leaps)
On Friday anyone long gold was giving a wake up call…
China was biggest buyer of gold in 2009, China on friday decided to raise reserve requirements on banks…
2nd time this year…
This is not news… This is changing the Rules of Play for investing in the long term…
Q… when does the mkt realise this? At the moment it is being ignored according to price… stay nible…
I can see the stocks market at the exact same level 10 years from now. People would have called you an idiot saying that 10 years ago, yet its 30% lower 10 year later!
There of course will always be money to be made running businesses, inventing new products, puntin currencies/commods etc if you are good at it, Developing property in the right places by buying at the right price etc
Yes, one needs to be conscious of inflation, but lets face it…the most important aspect to inflating the value of a home or the amount the stock market can earn is Wages…and at 14% area unemployment end this year etc I cant see significant wage inflation for a very long time. The Japanese tried their best to re-inflate their own economy and as we all know didnt succeed. But so what?!? The Japanese have a very high standard of living and per head are the richest people on this planet. Thats because they save and have and economy that produces useful things. They learnt their lesson on borrowing against low yielding assets 30 years ago. The only place we will see inflation is China and that a BAD thing for many reasons!!
After the US left the Gold Standard the platform was set for ever increasing Leverage with no firewall. It took a while to get things going because the shock of the US effectively defaulting on its obligation meant that the US$ imploded and commodities like Oil / Gold etc went nuts causing rampant inflation…At that point, Volcker stabilised things ramping up interest rates and restoring at least some credibility to the US$. China’s deflationary impact on the price of goods later added a further deflationary force. The fact that Japan and Asia were becoming big savers helped our cause as well…that Capital found its way to our side of the planet. The Japanese at one point saving 25% of disp income, as the property thing had left a sour taste on their pallets!
In any case once inflation was under control and rates started to fall the party started…For the next 30 years we borrowed more and more until it got to the point where we were borrowing 3x as much per unit of income as we were in the late 70s. This made sense to some degree as borrowing was more affordable and the great credit rush began. GDP started to grow, as it always does when credit grows as initially the credit gets put to productive uses. This allowed governments to lower taxes as their tax income was rising etc.
In the late 90s we had reaped all we could from falling interest rates as they couldnt really fall much more and we were borrowing as much as we could justify relative to our incomes. However, we were hooked on 10%+ credit growth and needed a mechanism to make it still look legitimate. Securitisaton provided the platform for another decade and a non-existant credit derivatives market became an 80 Trillion$ market in just 10 years. This was the last play…eventually Wall Street would run out of ways of hiding the fact that as a sociey we had borrowed beyond our means and with interest rates so low and places like Japan/China starting to consume a bit more and save a bit less…there were no more catalysts left. We hit the brickwall…
In any case, I guess my point is that the last 30 years has all been about falling interest rates and the banking system leveraging itself up more and more.
There is no more proof needed than to know that if 30 years ago you invested in 30 Year US Govt bonds at over 12% yield and locked in this return (which was possible in the late 80s when zero coupon Tsys negated the need to re-invest coupons), you would have 30x your money today. This easily beats the stock market and property or any asset class for that matter.
So here we are. Living in a society with no obvious catalysts left. Taxes are going higher, Interest rates cant go any lower and have more risk to going higher, The banking system is deleveraging and getting itself back into shape. The worlds biggest savers (the Japanese) are retiring and starting to consume their wealth (which means we have to pay it back). China is at that point where inflation is about to become a big problem, meaning goods will eventually cost us more (China messed with the minimum wage again last week in some province as people cant afford to live earning what they earn to subsidise our lifestyle with cheap widgets)
In any case, I know little of this is news, but sometimes I think its good to just think about the last 30 years out loud and realise that the easy money has been made. That going forward people will need to be nimble with their savings etc. Diversification and the ability to move easily in and out of various asset classes etc will be the biggest determinant in how one does over the next 10-20 years in my opinion…
+1 This is why any thinking person should take an active interest in the way things are going, not necessarily to get rich, to survive will do. The days of the askaboutmoney.com mantra ‘buy and hold for the long term’ have been over for some time now. No more monkeys and dart boards, well erm apart from gold some would say…
Good post McQueen.
Thaks McQueen. Good post indeed. It’s a historical lesson that needs to be told to people.
“Diversification and the ability to move easily in and out of various asset classes etc will be the biggest determinant in how one does over the next 10-20 years in my opinion…”
+1, very impressive post… Well thought out and put together from start to finish…Nothing new BUT put together better than I ever could…
Welcome aboard…lol…
/yg E mini gold futures…
Clear Body Clear Mind…couple of things I noticed from Friday (bullish)
Main Bull Bear Trendline held from lows…
1080 held on Friday…
Higher lows (when compared to day before)
New smaller term Bull trend line intact from low 1042
Low ted Spread…
However other stuff i noticed (bearish)
Lower High (compared to day before)
CDS action on friday, gold silver ratio rising, corporate spreads (jnk espicially)…
China comment raising Reserve requirements(when again does this hit the /yg contract)
My thinking Friday evening…
For me barring a credit event, Risk Reward favours bullish side…
However at current levels of 1090-1094 risk reward didnt favour an entry… willing to miss another 10-15 pts up, dont care, waiting for opportunity of pullback…
I still think Gold is in an Short term uptrend, but these levels to pricy for me, wait for pullback…Guessing on where the pullback will be to is just guesswork… Wait and see price action Monday around my key levels to pull the trigger…
Neutral waiting for the pullback (that may never come)
/ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures…
Clear Body Clear Mind
For me very bullish action on /ES on Friday, hit my key level of 1062.5 (low 1060) held and bounced…
Note…May need to review 1062.5 as key level… (1061 more appropriate) Changed key level to 1061 going forward…
Bullish
Bull bear trendline from lows held 1042.
higher lows, lower high (.25) void…
Bearish
1080 held again…
Credit stuff from above etc…
For me Risk reward favours those who are bullish, however not at these levels i.e 1079…
Wait and see for me…
UK and European markets are alot cheaper now than they were. By the time its in the mainstream media to invest in shares etc it will be too late to be getting in. When the corporates have paid down their debt then dividends will starting moving back up strongly. Going forward dividends are going to become alot more important as “growth” stories will treating with alot of wariness by shareholders.
Irish business media should be largely ignored as is very low grade and short term.
I think rates for cash deposits will hit the floor about 2 years out. Alot of assets are now offering 7%, 8% and and above and that is long term very good levels to be getting in at. Getting out at the right time in the cycle is going to be key.
Most of us Pinsters can see the macroeconomic situation fairly clearly. Where we differ, I feel, is our strategy for dealing with it.
For me, it has always been about buying good stocks. I say ‘always’ but it took me many years and some gut-wrenching losses to get to the point where I could make a living from it. Looking back, I see those losses as an investment in education. I wouldn’t just buy the index. Blindly “buying the stockmarket” will not allow one to outperform the herd. The private investor has huge advantages over institutions when it comes to investment and, in our world of ever more onerous regulation, this gulf is widening.
The poster above mentions “Diversification and the ability to move in and out of various asset classes”. Apart from the obvious oxymoron here, I believe it is important to specialise if you intend to manage your investments properly. A heart doctor cannot expect to be an expert in mental illness and it’s the same with investors. I prefer to stick with the asset class I understand best (small companies). I have dabbled in bonds, commodities and derivatives with little success. The problem was, I was up against those with many years more experience and always playing catch up.
I’m not saying my way is right way. Far from it. We should all choose are our own path and I’m pointing out what works for me. However, it never ceases to amaze me how a bit poking around at overlooked individual situations can uncover some real gems. I can only assume this is because most investors either can’t be bothered or have their heads in the clouds of macroeconomics.
Well said. I think we are in for a retrenchment back to the mid 9000s on the Dow but it didn’t stop me from a few well planned buys which I was fully confident would pay off. I sold all my shares when we hit 10K as I felt too far too fast but have been jumping in and jumping out which has paid off handsomely on some individual stocks. At the moment I’ll take a punt at Euro weakness. Greece have to roll over a few Bn in mid april and I think A.Merkel will be slow in commiting German cash to shore them up before serious reform is enacted. This could lead to a few weeks of uncertainy and a sub 1.30 on the eurusd=x.
Stay nimble.