Short term view

I will be buying a house this year. Any thoughts on if the madness in SCD is likely to continue much longer or worse increase in pace.

I have tracked the market very closely in dart line areas and am involved in many bidding wars, on the losing side. In the last 2/3 weeks I have noticed less bids and slightly more property, particularly for the over 600k properties, which is outside my range.

Am I better to wait for autumn or get in now before they rise more?

I know the current rises aren’t sustainable in the longer term and once supply improves the prices will drop, but this doesn’t help me now.

Any advice from resident experts much appreciated as I have found the site excellent for property info and insight.

IMHO, they are a half dozen people chasing each sub market or sub area with cash, so there will not be values till they have bought.
Don’t know how long this can last but it could be a couple of years more.

I’m in much the same position as you. I’ve been involved, on the losing side, in more than a few bidding wars. In my definitely inexpert opinion, I do think that until supply starts picking up much more substantially things are going to carry on going up slightly in SCD.
myhome.ie/residential/brochu … -6/2434897 has gone sale agreed at €251,000.
This seemed crazy to me, but the buyers are out there and the properties aren’t.
People have been telling me for the last year that more property is going to come galloping onto the market, but I have seen very little evidence of this in the area I’m looking at.

Where will the supply come from? (genuine question) and how long will it take? I haven’t seen a genuine answer to these questions.

€582 per sq ft for that little cottage in Harolds Cross? You’re telling me that would have sold for €582 per sq ft in 2011/12? :angry:

So you’re saying there IS evidence of price rises in SCD :slight_smile:

At the risk of sounding like a total twat (and many on here would label me as such, mea culpa) perhaps you need to change your mindset?
Rather than waiting for the market to change, you should change.
It could be argued that the market is people like you, or indeed you, yourself. If that were the case, how long would it take for the current impasse to break?

Change your mind, and the world will change; look at another area, look at a different type of house…

yes.

Whooa… Nail meet head. Now what have you done with the very man. :wink:

Perhaps you and I have more in common than we care to think… :wink:

The Short term is takin’ a long feckin’ time. :frowning:

The houses / areas i am chasing are going up in value, most by 50 to 100k in the last 12 to 18 months. Yes you can produce gross stats that show little or no rise , but work out based on certain streets or estates and trust me they have gone up where I am looking.

I appreciate the philosophical argument on my mindset, but for a variety of personal reasons I am going to buy, ideally in my preferred location. Realise that heart might be ruling head, but most decisions are emotional and post rationalised with logic. Mine are anyway!

I was chuckling to myself the other day wondering if the existence of the Pin itself is contributing in some way to “dead cat bounces” etc insofar that there are plenty of pinsters waiting for houses which are at “LTEV” :slight_smile: and eventually their circumstances (whether family or otherwise) push them towards buying. Also, if you we consider the circles of friends Pinsters have who they tell “not yet…stand fast…stand fast” - and considering the average IQ seems pretty high, therefore this advice may be more likely to be listened to by friends or acquaintances, or friends of friends who have never heard of price/sq ft or factored in garden orientation…and these ripples spread, might the Pin have been causing at least hundreds upon hundreds of people to keep their tinder dry while their wedge builds up and BOOM! :slight_smile: pinsters and their disciples finally take the plunge but as they have cleverly been saving their wedge for longer and need less of a mortgage, they inadvertently cause a mini DCB? Let’s face it, the Pin appears to be primarily concerned with prices south of the Liffey, so it makes sense that we are all in competition!?

Anyway… more Chateau La Pierriere!! And one of the reasons I need to buy is to stop my compulsion with checking in on the Pin every day… am sure that some of you wish I went back to being a lurker but we are where we are, eh :slight_smile: 8DD

EDIT: am not being disparaging at all, was just thinking of the irony

Oh, and sorry OP, even though I have bought, sold and owned 6 properties, I honestly have no idea how this pans out… Ireland is different! XD

There are graphs throughout the pin showing that house prices are not rising. So can please somebody explain to the likes of me, who need markers and a ruler to draw a graph, why asking prices on the southside are soaring. The best sample I can think of to illustrate this is broadford in Ballinteer. It’s a big estate, the houses are all the same. Prices dipped to 215k in 2012 but are now asking €375.
WTF?

Desperation.

Yea I know.

Yes you are technically correct.However as you know the CSO index; (a) doesn’t split Dublin by region (b) ignores cash.

We don’t have a credible PPR index yet, one we know works month to month, year on year.

Anyway meanwhile in the real world in SD, where people buy houses, people can see prices being achieved in SD are higher - the pin is littered with threads from credible pinsters detailing same. A review of roads on the PPR shows this also.

How many viewings have you been at in the last 6 months?
How many houses have you bid on?

Supply is down 33% in dublin on this time last year (5k properties on daft.ie to 3.3/3.4k now) or 25% in SD. We had a thread this time last year on the chronic supply issue and it’s only got worse. As I said i’m still waiting on a credible answer to where supply will come from and realistically how long it will take.

I can see 2.5k properties or less this time next year - even if a glut of repossessions started today (years to come on market/drip fed/not family homes- take your pick). So those waiting might want to be prepared to sit it out 3/4 years more for any real impact. How long will it take to get back above 5k properties for sale in Dublin?

We have a thread on letter drops (viewtopic.php?f=10&t=59326) with many pinsters having used or considering using it. Some of those in the letter drop thread i’d consider pretty bearish previously.

We have plenty of pinsters who’d bought recently on this thread (viewtopic.php?f=10&t=50957&hilit=pinsters) and there are plenty more since that thread was active.

People argued the MIR ending would lead to 2013 being dead - sales numbers are up every month has beaten 2012 so far.

I just get the feeling this is the ‘denial’ stage of the cycle of emotions from some bears, a limited few admittedly, (re SD only) just because the crappy statistics that are produced don’t point it out in bright red ink. Are the 200+ threads on the pin since the start of 2013 all wrong?

The CSO index will probably continue to show declines both nationally (actually no doubt really) and for dublin houses (for the reasons outlined above and the fact well they are an ‘average’ - most of the activity is actually at the bottom end.)

Even if prices are still falling are the drops sufficient to outweigh rental cost? To me from reading the pin it seems many pinsters don’t need an index to point out what they intuitively know and you can see the general change of sentiment. (some acted earlier in late 2011, others only doing so now as it becomes more glaringly obvious) I’d say there is but a handful of posters that even bother to challenge whether prices are rising in SD anymore.

Nobody should panic, and it doesn’t mean prices will continue to rise. It could easily fall flat on it’s face but the situation is what it is now. I just find the denial astonishing hence my post. Yes there are some pretty crazy asking prices - pinsters are generally intelligent enough to spot them and avoid them. Do you honestly believe a whole bunch of pinsters are being duped by EA’s putting higher asking prices on a whole range of houses in order to make the market look up? No smoke without fire and all that.

PS I live in ND, so it’s not a big issue this side of the liffey (yet anyway) and i’ve no vested interest in SD. (You’ll have seen my recent post rubbishing someone talking up prices in Swords when they are obviously falling). I’ve just been reading the Pin for about 5/6 years now and find it interesting to see the sentiment swings of the site.

Again I’ll state I’d love to hear credible replies on the supply issue being solved.

I have no statistic to prove that SD prices are up but I can see;

(a) supply down significantly on last year
(b) no obvious fall in demand (from review of the PPR and also reading the pin and other sites)
(c) A very very large sample of anecdotes from those active in the market
(d) Using the PPR to obviously compare a range of houses in an area 2010/11 v’s 2013

Anyone who is able to reliably predict the future from a combination of public information and good judgement would be able to buy any house in Ireland with cash from financial market speculation.

By definition, therefore, anyone buying a crappy 70s semi in Churchtown for 800k or whatever isn’t some future gazing genius.

You are competing in the property market with people taking leveraged bets on the future, in relation to both their own circumstances and wider economic conditions. It’s the same as property development in the boom - the risk-averse were outbid for land by the risk-agnostic. Of course the agnostics might have turned out to be right, but not in this universe.

Personally, I’ve sort of decided that whilst I could scrabble together enough cash and 30-year finance to move to somewhere quite nice that ticks a few boxes, the properties that would give me any deep sense of fulfillment are all well over a million quid, and at that level the medium-term downside risks (Eurozone breakup, tax harmonization leading to destruction of high tech FDI, stock market meltdown, or some unknown-unknown consequence of human stupidity) are far too great to sail into the future loaded up with debt secured against a single un-diversified Irish property asset.

I do also wonder about raising a family in an area where properties cost a million quid and are mostly populated by old duffers and workaholics, but that’s an whole different can of worms.

I am therefore sitting on the sidelines, for now.

If I was renting and able to buy somewhere comfortably affordable in a nice enough area (so probably not south Dublin inside the M50) I’d probably do that as a bit of a hedge.

I am sure the Pin has contributed to price rises in SCD.

It has certainly annointed SCD as the Holy Grail!!!

Think this is very good advice. If you must buy this year then consider that there are 2 markets at the moment:

  1. SCD where cash is chasing property
    (and there are mini-SCD’s everywhere, i.e. somewhat better houses/areas at massively better prices).
    The EA’s and sellers are currently winning the psychological battle with cash buyers - but I don’t believe (hope) this is sustainable for mortgage buyers who must eventually step in.

  2. Outside SCD where the reverse is true, and which probably approach long term value

So maybe buy outside now, and trade up in a few years when SCD reverts to mortgage sales as opposed to cash.