So who will rush to buy now.

I know at lot of us on this forum, both frequent posters and lurkers are all waiting to buy (when the time is right, of course). So has the stamp duty reform tempted/convinced you to think about buying in the new year?s

For me, with a young family, equity in the bank from our house sale, and a desperate need to have my own house the answer is a still a definite NO. Want to hold out through the “dead cat bounce” and try my utmost to wait until Sep 2008. It might not be the bottom of the crash but I want to have some proper roots by then.

I’m in no rush - the real fun has not started yet.

The final VI excuse for the slowdown is gone, the bluff has been called. I would wait and see because I can see full scale panic in 2008.

I think you’ll be waiting a long time. This time next year, people will be saying ‘Oh, 2008 was the year of the dead cat bounce - wait for 2009’. This time 2009 people will be saying ‘Oh we’re at the top of the DCB - wait for 2010’. This 2010 it will be some other excuse why the market hasn’t crashed.

As I’ve said innumerable times already, if you see a place you’re “going to put down roots”, then just buy it, if you & wife feel it’s the place for you. And then leave it at that. You’re sorted.

There are as you rightly point out many many people out there ready to pounce (demand hasn’t gone away you know), and once the right property for a family comes along, you will have a right battle on your hands to get it - despite all this talk of buyers staying away, people like you are desperate to get on the ladder.

I think you would have been better off buying before the budget actually, because now vendors think you have more money to play around with (which is marginal), and are thus going to start either raising their prices by e5k - e10k and/or start playing hard-ball on price.

Summary: if not an investment and you really want to have a place for your kids to grow up, then just find the place both of you can agree on and do it.

The stamp duty reform merely means that Brian Cowan can no longer be blamed for the inevitable .

If I were wondering what Brian was thinking right now I would read this article here .

bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= … refer=home

It was a particularly heavily made up and gaunt and grey Bertie who came on the 9 o clock news to bat for the budget . He sounded and looked most unconvincing.

Brian will keep his head down for the next while I should think. Let the inevitable take its course.

What constitutes a crash in your opinion candb???

Really, at this stage, I really struggle to understand where you’re coming from…

Clowen has surprised me today with a politically savvy budget. Nothing controversial, nothing offensive, no fook ups. Just what he needs to be doing in his position, waiting, waiting, waiting for Godot.

According to the guy in the video (in my post - not GB) (04:24):

soft landing: a 5%, 10%, or 15% decline
hard landing: a 30%-50%+ decline (04:37: 50%-80% declines in the most extreme bubble areas)

So a huge percentage of the housing stock will have to start dropping prices by 30%+. We haven’t seen that yet: when you standard 3-bed semis in Dublin start showing those type of price-drops I will duly flagellate myself upon the PIN altar!

thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?t=4952

NOMINAL OR REAL!!! :unamused:

Dunno - watch the video! You’ll find most people are concerned with real though.

Oh I totally agree crash and burn , we (my husband and I) are buying our next house as our family home and have no intention of moving for at least the next 10-15 years. Having bought and sold 3 times in the last 7 years we need to start thinking about schools etc and not about how good an investment a house will be. This time we are buying a home.
However we are being cautious as we want a quality of life which means maybe one of us staying at home to look after the kids instead of putting them in a creche 5 days a week. So until Sep 2008 I think we will hold tight.

Even the VIs are saying that prices will be down by varying degrees next year. If somebody is happy to pay more now for the same house that they will get for less next year then by all means buy. If they want to save a few quid then they should wait. At the very least people should wait until summer and see how the spring pans out.

Personally I think a nominal drop in the order of 10-20% is a crash, especially in an era which was renowned for the 100% mortgage, the interest only and god knows what else…

I see the mother of all domino effects coming and I think the property crisis is small beer in comparison to a situation that looks like bearing all the hallmarks of the early stages of a massive Irish recession…

I thought the traditional definition of a bear market was 20% below the all-time high?

Good idea, once you’re in no rush to move. You may as well hold on if there’s no immediate reason to move, just like Orwellgeorge and A Random Walk have said they are doing, to take advantage of any continuation of the downturn.

In 2005/2006 you’d have probably said: ‘We’d better move now or the price will be higher next year!’: at least we can be pretty sure that the very worst that could happen is the price will be the same as they are now, and who knows - you may save a packet after all :slight_smile:

Good luck!

Buy when you are good and ready . In september you will have more choice, thats all.

If you are a good mortgageable proposition for a bank you will get the necessary funds, same as it ever was.

If you are a cash buyer even better 8)

When cowen got to the “stamp duty” bit, there was lots of shouting in the Dail chamber. The housing market seems to be the most important thing in the economy

In the economy?

I don’t think so…

The most emotive issue going?

Definitely…

You are so right, which just shows how obsessed Ireland is with property…seriously our hospitals are dirty, disorganised and downright dangerous places to be, yet our so called leaders are more interested in pleasing the auctioneers/construction industry!

For stock markets yes - a 20pc fall represents a crash. However, for property a 10pc fall is the accepted definition of a property crash in the US.