State knew property market on turn in February 2007...

In an otherwise interesting piece by ncallanan on whether or not Mr. Cowen (as MfF) met Sean Dunne to discuss changes to the ‘resting on contract’ law, there is this line:

All well and good so far. But then we get to what I think is the interesting bit:

tribune.ie/business/news/art … tax-looph/

Shurely some mishtake? Weren’t we being told that there was no evidence of any problems in the property market? The fundamentals remain sound? Nobody, nowhere, could forseen nuttin’?

I think we should be told how soon the government knew there were problems in the property market and when they knew it and to avoid any confusion, by ‘knew’ I mean when were they given advice to that effect and who saw it.

edit: I’m sure some 2007 FTBs who feel they were sold down the swannee would be interested…

Great clips on The Week in Politics on about the miss management by past finance ministers, showing McCreevey and da auld Bert outside the tent. Scum.

The excellent Finfacts is a great resource for this kind of thing.

Also, while doing a Google search (Brian Cowen property, for instance), choose ‘timeline’ from the ‘other options’ and then zoom into the time frame of interest, in this case ‘2007’, then ‘February’.

I don’t want to sound crass here, but I knew that there was a change coming in Feb/Mar 2007, taxi drivers in Galway knew, lads down the pub on a friday knew, although they were only expecting a 10% to 15% fall.

We were moving from preparing to move from Galway back to the east coast during this time, I spent a few weeks in Dublin interviewing and working out what to do with our house. During this time stories abounded of EA’s having to get new “For Sale” signs printed as the ones they had were staying on properties much longer.

Prices didnt really start falling until the end of 2007 and then they were down( in our case) 9%, so there was antedotal evidence of prices moving downwards. Mind valuations done on our behalf by banks were laughable, and werent used.

People should have been aware that this was coming, there was plenty of evidence in the markets place. So I don’t know why anyone should be warned, personal responsibility and all that.

You’re not sounding crass bob, just like an FF apologist is all.

The point of when the market turned or was turning is entirely moot, all this topic is attempting to do is to pull out a few choice quotes from the doublespeak merchants.

It’s not about warnings, it’s about the property pumping the government and the VIs have been engaged in at every stage of the bubble and during it’s collapse.

“Mind valuation”??? What the fuck is that?

The dogs on the street knew the market had turned. I was watching the bottom end of the market in Dublin (the only bit I had any hope of affording). Prices there hit a plateau in the autumn of 2006 and new entrants were coming on at or slightly below this level, never above. People weren’t starting to drop the prices of already-listed houses yet, but the inventory was steadily building up and nothing was coming off the market. It was clear as day that turnover had collapsed. The powers that be knew. They just didn’t want to know and if they did, they certainly didn’t want anyone else to know they knew.:unamused:

Mind valuation, is bad grammar thats all. :blush:

I’m not a FF apologist, all I was saying was that there was evidence in the market at that time that things were turning downwards, we rented for 6 months just to try an understand where everything was going.

I agree there was a lot of double speak going on, but when one did his/her research there were lots of pointers telling people that prices were heading down, with some saying “crash” others saying “soft landing” each side had VI’s, agreed, but I would have thought that its up to the person to fully reasearch the purchase.

Thats the only point I’m trying to make.

It’s just not a valid point in the context of what’s under discussion in this thread.

What do you think this website is? Askaboutmoney?

Back to FF and their duplicity…

What government (no matter what party) is going to tell people that the value of houses was going to fall ?

None.

I don’t believe in government intervention in peoples personal choices, a nanny state is’nt the solution either.

Again, I’m staggered to think you believe you are making a relevant point.

At every echelon of the property market and in terms of accessing that most basic human right, the right to shelter, the Irish State has been involved in both creating the bubble and attempting to squeeze and reflate the burst with more false bottoms than a CIA briefcase.

The Irish Property Market is nothing but government intervention.

NAMA FFS! Nationalised Banks! Instructions not to foreclose! Instructions for FTB kittys within the Banks! Holy crapping Jesus!

There is no market in Ireland. There is only the State.

Sorry but I was adressing the thread title, specifically the period of Feburary 2007.

The point is not whether it was obvious to the dogs in the street. Indeed, it clearly wasn’t obvious, otherwise who would have bought? The point is whether the government knew they were lying to the general population.

A more accurate thread title might be “what they knew and when they knew it” to go with the “what they said and when they said it” thread. I suppose there’s a further step backwards with “what they were told (internally) and when they were told it”.

If departmental sources were telling ministers at cabinet that prices were going to fall; if they had quantified some level of fall; if they had worked out the likely consequences of such falls; we might be able to move beyond the “DoF - what a bunch of plonkers” phase and get to the “FF - what a bunch of liars” one.

The smart and the ballsy.

+1

Easy now, you’re starting to sound like a capitalist.

Exactly. The dogs on the street certainly weren’t buying. If they had been, turnover would have been as high as ever.