State must not bank on bailout of bad mortgages
Good article , well written. Nothing new arorund here and what the hell is that €75bn figure for mortgages , is it post 2004 non investment mortgages or something ???
irishtimes.com/newspaper/opi … 58137.html
Excellent article by Brian Lucey.
Contains these gems which albeit have been said a few times on here it’s great to see them in the papers.
no, it looks like the amount (approx) outstanding for all residential mortgages as per the central bank data.
May there’s two central banks - good CB & bad CB
sigh 100odd bn on the balance sheets of banks, 48ish bn securitised. From the Central Bank. Tagged as residential mortgages, not investment or commercial.
*edges away grumbling about having to post the same numbers over and over again…
Where is that number from , I thought aggregate residential mortgages were north of €110-115bn and I KNOW that €40bn of the bloody things went out in ***2006 alone ***. Other numbers, maybe including secured loans are €150bn to €180bn
What is total household debt does anybody know ( including unsecured) ???
Residential = €109.9 bn + Securitised €37.7 bn = Total outstanding €147,654 million euro
Source - December 2009 Central Bank Monthly Statistics - page 8
centralbank.ie/data/MonthStatFil … 202009.pdf
And then there are all the canny BTLs on top of that.
centralbank.ie/data/MonthStatFil … 202009.xls
this shows the breakdown of residential (thee and me) canny mcsavvy btl’s and second home
The 109 residential mortgages in the quarterly bulletin includes securitized mortgages , afaik
Nope, they give the total of 147 bn, 109 bn as the ‘unadjusted’ figure.
I knew I was not going mad and that the total was somewhere north of €110m.
In each case we are talking about the amount owed by households in the form of mortgages and not known to be investment mortgages. But that is much more than €75bn so where did €75bn come from AND in the IT of all places ???
Lots of Irish residential mortgages…remortgages/topups or whatever have been pissed away on the BMW X5 and the mafia owned timeshare in Bulgaria So the €150m number is all outstanding residential mortgages whether securitised and off balance sheet or not.
Then there are commercial mortgages used for residential investment in some cases .
Finally there are secured loans where there is a lien of some sort on a family home. Maybe that is the €180bn figure I remember. The reason I remembered it is because it stuck in de membrane that 100% of GPD was borrowed or held against Irish Homes. It may have been DaveMcW or Shane Ross who came up with it.
€75m is what is owed against PPRs and not seasoned and securitised yet, that is all.
As for securitisation there are 2 classes .
- The Full rated and packaged Security such as the Permo structures like Corrib or Boyne (the biggie) …I suppose the Suck Poddle and Dodder are coming up soon
- The covered bonds like those issued by AIB which may be on balance sheet but I think not.
Whatever the rest of them are at??? Dunno. I was pointed at this press release which may have confused seasoned securitised product (€37bn) with Warehouse Lines ( seemingly €37bn) which are cash up front to a lender with a view to securitisation later…and without stating who had the Warehouse lines in place much less what the final drawdowns were. The warehouse lenders died by 2008 , eg Lehman.
10% of 75, 109, 146…any way you cut the cake the banks are toast if they have to absorb the losses. 75 is fair for the “help the poor” argument , frankly theres no reason to help canny mcsavvy and his btl or holiday home.
That spreadsheet says UNADJUSTED for Securitisations.
We lent €40bn in 2006 alone so how is that total only €109bn today …inclusive of securitisations …yes I know what a remortgage is but still ???
In 2006 alone we lent €8.5bn to FTBs and €12bn to Ladderers = €20.5bn Then €8bn to investors many of whom took Brendans advice and got IO. So that is €28.5bn new lending in 2006.
Of the preexisting mortgages at the beginning of 2006 some €6bn were remortgaged. Now I assume 50% were like for like and 50% were topped up along the way by 33% each for that gaff in Bulgaria or the X5 which resulted in a net gain of €1bn through remortgages.
That leaves us at €29.5bn and we add topups of €5bn for a grand total of €34.5Bn in net new lending in 2006 adjusted only for Remortgages as they should.
In 2007 that was north of €28bn ( Remortgages adjusted , €34bn gross)
In 2008 that was north of €17bn ( Remortgages adjusted , €23bn gross)
**So the net add to the mortgage debt stock during those three years was nearly €80bn alone. **
2005 was about €27bn as well meaning that 2005-2008 INCLUSIVE saw nearly €107bn in new lending added to the mortagge debt stock
People don’t pay mortgages off that quickly and mortgages from 1998-2004 were not insignificant either although many have been remortgaged out of course and re-accounted for in those figures there. Still there is another €12bn-€20bn there in the system and of course the 2009 mortgages too.
Source for 2005 - 2008
I think you’re missing the point 2Pack
When have economists ever needed real figures to make the news?! Honestly
Thought yer man was a professor ‘of banking’ in a way _and don’t laugh at the thought of saying that in polite company nowadays _
This is the explanation in the Central Bank monthly statistics (bottom of page 8 ) for the €110b and €147b figures.
There is also this on page 3
I believe the €147.7 billion figure relates to balances on owner occupier mortgages only.
I haven’t seen anything to controvert ( ) that view.
147 billion seems to be all residential mortgages, including the securitised ones. Breakdown for September was 113.5 owner occupier, 33.4 BTL and a bit over 1 billion in holiday homes.
Ah, thank you. At last a link we can believe in! I consider myself controverted.
But it does leave us with a bit of a problem, no? What are all the mortgages on the bank balance sheets? They seem to total more than 109 bn? (i.e. the unsecuritised portion).
Is there a breakdown of how much of each type is securitised?
I think you can work out securitised mortgages by type with the info in that spreadsheet bodyofevidence had and the data in that pdf file. On the spreadsheet unsecuritised pdh mortgages is 78 billion and all pdh mortgages is 113 billion from the pdf. The 35 billion difference is probably securitised pdh mortgages.