Get ready for more government induced rental and property price increases
Thou shalt not increase supply
God help anyone who already lives in one of these estates…
irishexaminer.com/ireland/no … 99649.html
Private homeowners in housing estates, where Cork County Council has acquired properties, should not have to endure any anti-social behaviour from local authority tenants. The mayor of Cork county John Paul O’Shea said…he was prompted to make the call after receiving complaints about some householders in parts of north Cork, but indicated similar problems existed in other parts of the county.
“If the council purchase houses in certain areas there’s uproar,” Independent councillor Tim Collins claimed. “Fear is out there and gathering momentum about the council buying houses [in private estates].”
So 200-300 houses in all (70 million), would that even make dent?
And because of NIMBYism they’ll all be in working class areas where the Government will be competing against some of the people it is trying to help.
Property owners? Estate agents? Banks?
Spending 70 million to further reduce supply while doing nothing to increase it will only help all of the above
In meantime pitty the poor bugger saving for a house who now has to compete against their own government who fleeces the same bugger with the other hand.
Thanks Evil_g I forgot where I was for a few minutes.
They were talking about this on newstalk last evening about half 6
I nearly crashed from laughing
top of my head some quotes “no this will not interfere in the market, since these are rentals”, “we will not buy repos only BTLs”, “we want to buy 1400 homes for 70 million”, “average amount we spend is 150K” and so on, the math is definitely wrong there and the guy sounded sketchy at best
I suppose he doesnt care as long as he gets a nice salary and pension, i wouldnt either
Whenever I get time i will have to start working on my book “Gombeenism for Dummies, a reference for the rest of us”
NIMBYism or thats the kind of houses they should be buying for people who are getting them for free ?
This policy is breath taking in its pointless tokenistic stupidity.
The Rebuilding Ireland report launched so very publically 4 weeks ago (rebuildingireland.ie/Rebuilding% … 20Plan.pdf) had one reference to this policy:
They state the €70 million is likely to yield acquisitions of the order of 1,600 vacant properties means they expect to pay an average of €43,750 per vacant property. This seems absurdly low.
There is no mention of additional funds to repair such properties if such work is needed.
The big idea is then to sell the properties to local authorities at cost who then rent them out. Has the ability or willingness of local authorities to buy these homes been validated? Local authorities have a poor track record in managing occupancy rates of their rental housing stock.
Elsewhere, it is reported:
At these average prices, the €70 million would buy around 400 houses and not the 1,600 initially claimed.
Has anyone validated their confusing claims on prices for multiple unit purchases and the aspirational prices they expect to achieve? Again, how much money would be required to bring these units to a standard where they are habitable.
This is a simple and quick analysis of a basic sample of 40 multiple unit purchases from the property price register for 2016. The address of the first property in the group is listed where the each unit in a multi-unit purchase is listed separately.
Units Average Price Address County Total Price 20 €106,000.001 - 20 Mill Lane Court, Mill Lane, Navan Meath €2,120,000.00 10 €4,000.00Apt & Car Space No. 1, Hobble Court, Leamy Street Waterford €40,000.00 41 €191,463.41APT 1- 41, XAVIER COURT, 21 25 SHERRARD ST UPPER DUBLIN 1 Dublin €7,850,000.00 21 €404,761.90APARTMENTS 1-21, BROADSTONE HALL, PHIBSBORO ROAD Dublin €8,500,000.00 28 €40,522.9623 ALLOW HILL, FREEMOUNT, CHARLEVILLE Cork €1,134,643.00 8 €272,500.0036 An Riasc, Farnham Drive, Finglas Dublin €2,180,000.00 8 €232,405.0021 Ardcahon Drive, Coolkellure, Lehanaghmore Cork €1,859,240.00 54 €134,870.37115 Ashmount Mews, Silverprings Cork €7,283,000.00 8 €430,159.503 Atkinson Drive, Aikens Village, Stepaside Dublin €3,441,276.00 21 €60,870.001 BAILE AN TSAGAIRT, SPIDDAL, GALWAY Galway €1,278,270.00 11 €287,149.1840 Ballygossan Park, Golf Links Road Dublin €3,158,641.00 24 €387,147.638 Belarmine Walk, Belarmine Woods, Stepaside Dublin €9,291,543.00 23 €10,652.17135 BOROIMHE BEECH, SWORDS, DUBLIN Dublin €245,000.00 17 €548,266.2415 Bracken Park Close, Carpenterstown Road Dublin €9,320,526.00 22 €232,500.0014 Bramble Hill, Castletreasure, Douglas Cork €5,115,000.00 16 €156,274.7521 Bremore Pastures Avenue, Balbriggan Dublin €2,500,396.00 21 €90,000.0019 BRINKWATER HOUSE, QUINCENTENNIAL DR, SALTHILL Galway €1,890,000.00 58 €41,795.97402 BROOKFIELD HALL, CASTLETROY, LIMERICK Limerick €2,424,166.00 12 €237,292.67180 Caislean na hAbainn, Castletroy, Limerick Limerick €2,847,512.00 16 €473,437.509 Cannon Place, Herbert Rad, Sandymount Dublin €7,575,000.00 16 €187,030.1315 carlinn court, mullaharlin rd, dundalk Louth €2,992,482.00 28 €20,000.001 Carolan Court, Keadue, Boyle Roscommon €560,000.00 12 €66,051.17104 Cartrun Breac, Ballinalee Road Longford €792,614.00 28 €255,750.0024 CHARLESLAND COURT, CHARLESLAND, GREYSTONES Wicklow €7,161,000.00 12 €343,096.4237 Chelmsford Manor, Celbridge Kildare €4,117,157.00 9 €37,962.6713 CHESTNUT GROVE, LETTERKENNY, CO DONEGAL Donegal €341,664.00 23 €216,640.8720 CITY SQ, GLOUCESTER ST SOUTH, DUBLIN Dublin €4,982,740.00 30 €330,656.6710 CLONMULLION RETIREMENT VILLAGE, ATHY, KILDARE Kildare €9,919,700.00 13 €302,420.85117 Cluain Shee, Sandyford Meadows, Woodside Dublin €3,931,471.00 66 €446,713.3314 Diswellstown Close, Castleknock Dublin €29,483,080.00 11 €382,465.001 DOOROGE WOODS, BALLYBOGHAL, CO. DUBLIN Dublin €4,207,115.00 12 €273,536.7526 Drury Mills, Sagart Dublin €3,282,441.00 18 €122,222.0034 DUNDALK STUDENT VILLAG, DUNDALK INSTITUTE OF TECH, DUNDALK Louth €2,199,996.00 14 €333,645.4313 ELDEN, MARYBOROUGH HILL, CORK Cork €4,671,036.00 19 €251,673.114 Elder Heath Court, Elder Heath, Kiltipper Road Dublin €4,781,789.00 26 €184,807.6910 ELDERWOOD AVE, BOREENMANNA RD, CORK Cork €4,805,000.00 30 €205,171.93123 Evanwood, Castletroy Limerick €6,155,158.00 12 €286,000.003-14 Moyglas Glade, Moyglas, Lucan Dublin €3,432,000.00 50 €123,229.6950 Units at Leas na Mara, Ballymoneen Road, Galway Galway €6,161,484.58 21 €39,735.1021 Units, CLOVER COURT RETIREMENT VILLAGE, Shinrone CO OFFALY Offaly €834,437.00
I have not checked if this sample is skewed in favour of or against certain areas.
40% of Ireland’s population lives in Greater Dublin. 341 units or 38% of the sample above are in Dublin. Their average price is €317,193.
The usual and often-repeated statements about poor quality data in the property price register apply here.
This represents a total of 889 units at a total price of €184,866,577.58 and an average price of €207,948.91.
These are actual multi-unit purchases in places where presumably people want to live or when investors feel people want to live. And, further, in that horrible phrase, the low-hanging fruit has been harvested so the number of future multi-unit purchases available will be lower, in less desirable locations and/or at a higher cost.
At this rate, their €70 million would buy 336 units. So, scratching the surface of the problem while simultaneously wasting money and disrupting the market.
So John, what is it:
• €70 million to buy 1,600 properties at an average cost of €43,750
• €70 million to buy around 400 properties at an “average price of property around the country would be €140,000 to €150,000 but that could rise to over €300,000 in Dublin”
• €70 million to buy 336 properties at the 2016 average multi-unit buy price of €207,948
And bear in mind that all this assumes no refurbishment costs and low or no cost of purchase.
The total value of transactions in the property price register for 2016 up to 5 Aug 2016 is €5,738,528,020.65. The proposed €70 million is 1.22% of this 8 month number. Bear in mind that the proposed €70 million will be spent over four years. So it might account for no more than 0.2% of the annual property market.
This is the same Housing Agency that published a report in May 2016 using 5 year old (inaccurate in my view) CSO data on vacant houses that is now completely out of date: housingagency.ie/getattachme … Agency.pdf.
This blatant nonsense has not yet been withdrawn.
The agency does note:
So there are lots of vacant house in places where no one wants them.
For some analysis of vacant property data on this site, viewtopic.php?f=4&t=66044.
There is also no mention of the problem of offers of social housing made by local authorities being rejected, such as:
So the Housing Agency believes there is some crock of vacant, perfectly suitable, cheap housing gold that meet all their other selection factors in all the right locations at the end of the property rainbow, is going to pump money into a market with low supply and artificially restricted demand and solve the housing problem without any issues of offers of social housing being rejected and these newly acquired houses not being used.
And all this without driving up property prices in an already damaged and dysfunctional market.
This policy has the appearance of a colossal obsession of the Housing Agency that some money is being thrown at to keep them quiet. I have the image of mammoth bees buzzing frantically around their gigantic bonnets.
Meanwhile not a single new house being built, planners running rampant rejecting housing applications and officially-sponsored NIMBYism by Shane Ross (or Ass Nosher which is his anagram)
The inmates are sitting on the management committee of the asylum.
The guy from the Housing Agency explained the discrepancy in money like this: the €70m (or whatever) is a float. They buy houses for an average of €150k, “do them up” and resell them on to the local authorities at cost, which replenishes the float. Why? No idea.
And bearing in mind that part of the selection criteria is former BTLs only (because, of course, only rental tenants can be evicted without anyone giving a shit). Oh, and, these former BTLs have to be suitable for families, since those will be top of the social housing list. I’m pretty sure that when I looked at block purchases on the PPR for the last three years, even those that went for eye-watering discounts were nothing remotely like as low as the prices implied in this plan, and as you would expect, most of what looked like former BTL was one and two bed apartments.
I presume because central government doesn’t want to release funds willy nilly to the LAs in case they get diverted. And because it looks good for some politician – remember when Alan Kelly was minister he wrote to LAs asking how dare they open any new housing scheme without him being there to cut the ribbon. Plus €70m sounds like “loadsa money” to the man in the street who won’t stop to do the sums.
What a crock of shite!
But presumably money still needs to go to the LAs, to buy the houses from the HA, who bought them from the banks, who repo-ed them from the people who the LAs will house in them.
Meanwhile one council acts on abandoned out of commission properties of which there are hundreds in Dublin and returning them to service.
Averaging 100,000 cost according to their interview this morning dundalkdemocrat.ie/news/home … -part.html
I did a quick and simple look for properties with similar addresses:
10/08/2016 €298,000.00 199 CHARLESLAND WOOD, THE GLEN, GREYSTONES
27/07/2016 €260,000.00 280 CHARLESLAND PARK, GREYSTONES, WICKLOW
11/07/2016 €210,000.00 65 CHARLESLAND GROVE, THE GLEN, WICKLOW
06/07/2016 €130,000.00 ** 288 CHARLESLAND PARK, GREYSTONES, WICKLOW
04/07/2016 €261,500.00 212 THE FAIRWAYS, SEABOURNE VIEW, CHARLESLAND
30/06/2016 €260,000.00 40 CHARLESLAND WOOD, GREYSTONES, WICKLOW
10/06/2016 €254,000.00 133 CHARLESLAND COURT, GREYSTONES, WICKLOW
09/06/2016 €345,000.00 186 CHARLESLAND PARK, GREYSTONES, WICKLOW
09/06/2016 €210,000.00 236 CHARLESLAND PARK, GREYSTONES, WICKLOW
02/06/2016 €265,000.00 190 CHARLESLAND PARK, GREYSTONES, WICKLOW
31/05/2016 €200,000.00 284 CHARLESLAND PARK, GREYSTONES, WICKLOW
24/05/2016 €274,000.00 24 CHARLESLAND COURT, CHARLESLAND, GREYSTONES
11/05/2016 €255,000.00 70 CHARLESLAND WOOD, GREYSTONES, WICKLOW
05/05/2016 €262,000.00 16 CHARLESLAND COURT, GREYSTONES, WICKLOW
28/04/2016 €255,000.00 40 CHARLESLAND GROVE, GREYSTONES, WICKLOW
13/04/2016 €269,000.00 127 CHARLESLAND GROVE, GREYSTONES, WICKLOW
30/03/2016 €213,000.00 78 CHARLESLAND GROVE, GREYSTONES, WICKLOW
22/03/2016 €280,000.00 65 CHARLESLAND WOOD, GREYSTONES, WICKLOW
21/03/2016 €263,000.00 9 THE CRESCENT, CHARLESLAND, GREYSTONES
11/03/2016 €330,000.00 137 CHARLESLAND PARK, GREYSTONES, WICKLOW
09/03/2016 €265,000.00 174 CHARLESLAND PARK, GREYSTONES, WICKLOW
24/02/2016 €280,000.00 142 CHARLESLAND COURT, THE GLEN, CHARLESLAND
15/02/2016 €320,000.00 48 CHARLESLAND GROVE, THE GLEN, GREYSTONES
12/02/2016 €335,000.00 125 CHARLESLAND PARK, GREYSTONES, WICKLOW
12/02/2016 €377,500.00 239 CHARLESLAND COURT, GREYSTONES, WICKLOW
11/02/2016 €330,000.00 253 CHARLESLAND PARK, THE GLEN, GREYSTONES
29/01/2016 €225,000.00 155 CHARLESLAND PARK, GREYSTONES, WICKLOW
29/01/2016 €18,000.00 ** 28 CHARLESLAND COURT, GREYSTONES, WICKLOW
22/01/2016 €137,500.00 ** 128 CHARLESLAND WOOD, GREYSTONES, WICKLOW
22/01/2016 €351,000.00 62 CHARLESLAND COURT, THE GLEN, CHARLESLAND
05/01/2016 €250,000.00 111 CHARLESLAND GROVE, GREYSTONES, WICKLOW
This shows 31 entries and I removed three than were not part of the same group, such as:
22/01/2016 €351,000.00 62 CHARLESLAND COURT, THE GLEN, CHARLESLAND
I did add the usual caveat about poor quality data as well this being a quick analysis.
There is no real way to determine if these were bought by the same or different people. Even the date of sale is not accurate. Bulk purchases are either registered as multiple single purchases or one big purchase.
The inference is still reasonably valid. Given that these multiple purchases occured in the same location if an organisation was to try to buy these property in bulk rather than singly, this shows the type of price they could expect to pay.
What is clear is that the Housing Agency has not done even this most basic analysis on the average property price they expect to pay if they feel they can buy 1,600 properties for €70 million.
Yeah and although they’re sold as being “close to the Dart” it’s a 33-min walk from the back of the estate (says Google maps).
Probably more like 25 minutes irl. Google makes my 40-45 minute walk to a former workplace to be 59 minutes.
I find google’s walking times to be very generous, usually based on 4.8km/h, which from various articles seems to be reasonable (e.g. compare to en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naismith%27s_rule). However, if I’m walking to get somewhere (not just for scenery) I’d go faster.
Google’s driving times, however, tend to be fairly ambitious in my experience and rely on driving up to speed limit.