250k to 300k seems reasonable enough, or 1500 to 1800 a month over 20 or 25 years
There really are a lot of 200k plus households yet to buy in SCD.
The usual EA twaddle. Knocklyon does not boast a host of amenities. It really, really doesn’t. There is no village, no pubs, and no restaurants. I wouldn’t buy there in a fit.
What about well serviced Dublin 12?
We Dee Twelvers can often see the faint irredescent glow from SCD to the SW at night and easterly winds sometimes blow some of its heady vapours our way, making us giddy with ‘only way is up’ vibes and crave fine wines and rugby!
10/15 minute drive will bring you to the heart of the promised land from here!
According to the Revenue via Cliff Taylor in the SBP today, there are “just under 8,000 people who will earn between €200k and €250k this year”.
Obviously only some will be in south Dublin and looking to buy so it’s not in itself a very useful statistic but I thought I’d stick it here anyway.
We are in a very similar position as the OP, with a larger deposit.
Taking stock of the situation, we think everything is still overpriced if a household with 130k income, secure jobs and early six-figure deposit is looking at a 300k mortgage and getting scared (when stress-testing it for +2% which is not unreasonable).
We will continue to rent for the foreseeable, until the cash either dries up or we decide to leave SCD/South Dublin.
As for original request for advice, i’d take a 330k-350 mortgage over no longer than 30 years (plan to pay back much earlier) if your salaries are guaranteed to rise. Use the mortgage calculator but you don’t want to be paying much more that 2,000-2,200 a month. - that’s if you feel you really must buy now. If you don’t put the head down for another 12 months and get that deposit looking better - the current effervescence in SCD etc. may have calmed quite considerably (but who knows as demand driven by cash buyers is hard to predict as no figures exist for these people - mortgages aren’t driving demand that’s for sure). On the supply-side, things probably won’t pick up that much as repo’s are going to be resisted at all costs by the quasi-socialist society we live in.
Good advice, Thewing.
I would go further and say that last year’s effervescence will definitely not be here next year. People make wild statements about demand and supply. There is no major economic feature that will drive demand any higher than it was in early 2013, so it will not push prices up my more than it did last year. While I agree with you that there are inefficient drags on supply, I believe that supply of houses will increase from a few different streams.
So, on balance, the heat will come out of the market this year. As supply gradually comes back, the market will return to some normal functioning.
I see prices, supply and demand climbing a lot higher over the next 18 months.
The banks are going to start reprocessing PPR while releasing additional credit into the market place. This will allow them to convert non-preforming mortgages into preforming mortgages while minimising or eliminating any loss to their capital base.
BOI just said that they’re pumping 33 bn into mortgage lending in the next three years. How can you be so sure that the supply will increase?
If both supply and demand climb, how do you see prices going up a lot?
TBF €33b new lending into the Irish market of which €13b is earmarked for mortgages over the next few years
Demand rising slightly quicker than supply with your friendly banker overseeing market liquidity.
Its 13bn for mortgages and note the operative word ‘targeting’, you are also implying that lending practices will return to higher salary multiples - not going to happen.
Im not sure who you are asking, but I take anything the financial industry says with a salt mine
Talent like that is hard to find!
It could happen and it could just as easily happen the other way around, in fact I think it’s more likely that a supply will rise with some vendors being encouraged by the recent rises on the market. What makes you think demand will rise more than supply? Panic buying?
Good question, Puesyo. The panic buying was last year. Anecdotally, it looks like most of that has run its course.
Certainly there is nothing to support the idea of MORE panic buying than there was last year, so there is nothing to support higher prices being paid. It’s funny that all that commentary in the media over the festive season has gone quiet. … and that’s less than 2 weeks ago.
No, the banks will manage supply and demand.
Speed up repros, slow repros and he increase mortgage lending to manage the price upwards.
Har Har Har!
The banks having the ability and discipline to controle something!
Thanks for giving me a laugh.
They can’t manage their own balance sheets but they can manage the property market of a whole country?? They might try, they might even succeed for a while but will it last forever? How well did they manage the buble bursting in 2007? Was that to their best interest?
Nobody knows what supply and demand will do this year, we can all venture an educated guess and we can be right or we can be wrong, but I really can’t see your reasoning behind the ‘more demand, less supply’ thing at all.