Super Cycle, Inflation.

A surprising new theory high on the radar, with Arun Motianey, Roubini Global Economics senior fixed income strategist.

Can this vid be embeded?

“Oh Dear” to the first one.

But then the second one - does this mean that inflation could be the Obi Wan Knobe of the Irish Economy.

I can see inflation affecting Irish goods and services and if it were a “normal” economy it could impact on house prices.

But given the state of the Irish Property Market (oversupply of property, substantial numbers of homeowners in arrears, possibly more on arrngements with banks to keep them out of arrears figures, emigration, extremely limited access to credit) could a spell of global inflation have any effect on Irish Property.

Does it have any bearing on the rent or buy dilemma?

The Debt Super Cycle and the Great Reflation Experiment of 2009

The real culprit is the US debt super cycle, which has operated for decades, mostly in a remarkably benign manner. The inflationary implications of the twin deficits (current account and fiscal), as well as the steady increase in private debt, have been moderated by the integration of emerging markets into the global economy. The massive increase in industrial output from China, India, and others has enabled persistent credit inflation in the US to occur with virtually no consequence to date (other than periodic asset price bubbles and shakeouts). How long the dis-inflationary impact of emerging-market productivity growth will persist and how long these nations will continue loading up on Treasuries, will be instrumental in determining the course that the Great Reflation will take.
Tougher regulation is surely appropriate, but it will not stop the next inflationary run-up unless the system is fixed. In the final analysis, newly minted money and credit must find a home somewhere

The Tiger Years.