Supply is down. Is it time to trade up?

irishtimes.com/newspaper/pro … 32643.html

ORNA MULCAHY, Property EditorFewer properties are coming on the market and some are being withdrawn altogether as buyers wait for the bottom to appear

AFTER TWO years of over-supply in the Dublin second-hand housing market there are finally signs that the glut is ending. Would-be sellers are holding off putting their homes for sale at today’s knock-down prices, while others have withdrawn their property altogether, postponing a sale until conditions improve. The result is a tightening of supply that could stabilise prices in the coming months.

Market data points to a dramatic slowdown in new supply, following price erosion of between 35 and 50 per cent.

The number of fresh properties coming on the market in January was 60 per cent down on previous years, according to property website myhome.ie which tracks new instructions with the country’s estate agencies.

According to myhome.ie chief executive Jim Miley, the number of properties offered for sale in January was “probably a third of what it was in previous years”.

This matches anecdotal evidence from estate agents who say that they are getting far fewer calls from potential sellers. One Dublin agency which has several branches across the city says it received less than 40 new instructions in January, compared to around 160 in January 2008.

Sherry FitzGerald, the city’s largest estate agency chain, says its new instructions were down by “about 32 per cent” in January. However, the agency has also seen an increase in sellers withdrawing their property from the market unsold.

“The number of properties that were on the market, but vendors withdrew, has increased by 46 per cent in January,” says MD Michael Grehan. “In some cases, because interest rates have dropped, peoples’ holding costs have halved. Maybe people are happier to hold on to property now that pressure has eased,” he said.

Meanwhile a report from Goodbodys Stockbrokers shows that Dublin now has the lowest supply of second-hand homes for sale in the country. It shows that 1.2 per cent of the second-hand housing stock is on the market in the capital, which contrasts with 3.8 per cent in Galway, 2.6 per cent in Cork, 4.9 per cent in Leitrim, and 6.1 per cent in Cavan.

Traditionally, many homeowners wait until the spring is well advanced before putting their home for sale with April and May being the busiest months of the year for transactions. This year there are indications that supply will be limited, particularly at the top end of the market. There is unlikely to be the usual spring rush of houses, apart from those being sold because of what estate agents are calling the “three Ds” – Death, Divorce and Difficulties of a financial nature. But at least one of these categories is also being restricted – in the case of divorce, judges have stopped ordering family homes to be sold, on the basis that they are unlikely to sell.

The lack of fresh supply is most obvious at the mid to upper end of the market with supply and sales at starter home level relatively strong.

“There has been no significant fall off at the more affordable end,” says Simon Ensor, a director at Sherry FitzGerald. “That is where the activity is at the moment. Sellers know that they won’t get last year’s price, but they also know it’s a good time to trade up.

“However, in the middle sector of the market – between €600,000 and €1.5m – there has been a significant fall-off in supply, and it’s most noticeable of all at the top end of the market, in the €2.5m-plus bracket where there is a very limited supply coming on. If people are being told that their house is worth €2m, when at one stage it was worth €3m, that is a difficult pill to swallow.”

Ensor points out that for most people thinking of trading down, conditions are not favourable. “You are going from a quiet market to a more active market, and the price differential and the potential gain has narrowed.”

But for those planning to trade up, the narrowing differential is an incentive to move while prices are depressed. “Trading up makes huge sense at the moment. Trading down doesn’t.”

However, it is still difficult to “motivate people to trade up”, says Pat Mullery of Douglas Newman Good. “It is a brilliant time to move up the property ladder if people have the confidence. The old supply is being reduced in price, and the new supply is coming at much more realistic levels.”

However, he says, buyers are still extremely cautious. “There are very few people in normal circumstances out there, sitting at home saying to each other, ‘let’s move house’.”

He is hoping to tempt buyers to view one upscale property that is new on his books – 32 Orwell Park in Dartry. The 279sq m (3,000sq ft) detached house is in good decorative order but has plenty of scope to extend. The asking price is €3.6m.

Two years ago, Sherry FitzGerald sold a semi-detached house on the same road for €4.6m, while across the road from number 32, two large newly built detached houses sold for an estimated €7m and €6.2m apiece.

Are you fucking kidding me?

Perhaps supply is down because there’s no point in putting anything on the market until the spring ‘selling’ season?

I expect an avalanche of supply next month…

How many of the properties that came on the market last January are sold?

Meaningless numbers.

“Oh we only got 40 new properties on our books in January, where we got 160 last year”

And you sold 40 properties in January, did ya? If not, then fuck off with your ‘predictions’ of tightening supply.

Per Daftwatch for Dublin:

Jan 2008 - For sale : 5,000 (approx)
Jan 2008 - To Let: 3,500 (approx)

Jan 2009 - For sale : 6,800 (approx)
Jan 2009 - To Let: 7,000 (approx)

daftwatch.thepropertypin.com/county-breakdown/dublin/

What Orna is witnessing is a dawning realisation as people stop advertising their property as for sale. These properties were not ‘on the market’ in the commonly accepted understanding of what a market is. The market for middling houses at figures in excess of €1,000,000 was a fleeting aberration of a manic speculative bubble that will take this country a generation to recover from. *‘The past is a foreign country they do things differently there’. *

Hmm… not entirely convinced by this my survey of Ranelagh redbricks does show that the numbers are down. 3 beds are down from 16 (in November) to 12 now. 4 beds are down from a long standing 7 to 4. In the 3 beds the main drop outs have been at the lower price levels (under 800k) and I guessed that these were sales. In the 4 beds the three that disappeared were over 1.25m and I kind of assumed that these were withdrawals as they weren’t significantly better buys than those under 1.25m

Overall numbers of properties for sale in Ranelagh have fallen from 43 to 34.

A couple of weeks ago my devious mind began to think that EAs were withdrawing stuff from Daft to screw up the figures. I had a quick walk around Ranelagh but didn’t see any evidence to support this - anything with a sign up was on daft.

There is still a wide range of property for sale in Ranelagh so I wouldn’t view it as a shortage of supply. I also bet that if any of those currently on sale actually sold everybody with something to sell would be back in like a shot. This looks to me like an artificial restriction - the EAs saying to anyone that they know doesn’t have to sell - ‘You know, things will probably be better in the autumn, I’d give it a rest and come back then’. This gives them another few cm of speculative fluff in the papers.

Looking around middle class Dublin I see a lot of people not working. They’re not on the figures because they’re self employed - they’re still living off the bit of fat that they built up but very few have more than six months. I know - I’m one of them! This is the spare cash that might have allowed someone to trade up - but its going fast and I would guess that the Autumn selling season will see the real dive in prices - perhaps because people are trading down (and through neccessity rather than choice).

Supply down !!!

ha ha ha ha ha hhhahhahhaahaaaaa

oh Jesus wept…

next they’ll be tellin me we have a shortage of housing and our banks are over capitalised…

Wishful wishful thinkin…

The piece written is void in my opinion as it does not take all the factors into account when purchasing a product. The supply side has weakened some what in the last few months. This is due to the fact that most home owners are brain washed into thinking that their (inflated) house prices are worth and so if it was worth 300k a year ago it wont be long before it returns to this level.

Money is the problem here, jobs are at present are being lost at an astonishing speed, and without the jobs the house prices will continue to drop. Until we address the high labour costs here we are screwed.

Daftwatch has certainly shown a more pronounced leveling off in the Sept-Jan period. There is a seasonal slow down in this period but that is smaller than the overall slowdown in supply growth. It would suggets that daft has saturated for the moment. The Feb figures are heading up again.

Maybe there is a pause happening before some serious breakdown. There’s an awful lot of idle property burning holes in people’s pockets out there and people’s pockets are getting smaller by the day.

C’mon everyone knows 599,999 is perfectly affordable, after all it’s only 17 times the avgerage industrial wage.

It also ignores the fact that at the top end of the market in Dublin there are houses for sale without being openly advertised.

I know people who are looking to buy a trophy home and nothing the estate agents have shown them has been advertised anywhere.

Anyone who has seen a news bulletin or read a decent newspaper in the last 24 hours knows the story.

Using the IT example from todays paper, a quick search on Daft.ie and Myhome.ie lists 5 houses openly on the market in Orwell Park.

Not sure how many houses are actually on Orwell Park, but for someone looking to either rent or buy supply (through whats available on the open market alone) appears to be plentiful on this street.

**28 Orwell Park **
For Sale €POA and available For Rent €8,000 monthly
For Sale Link
daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=427937

For Rent Link
daft.ie/searchrental.daft?id=663815

**34 Orwell Park **
For Sale Region €7,250,000
For Sale Link
daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=396902

32 Orwell Park
For Sale asking €3.6Million and available For Rent €5,000 monthly
For Sale Link
myhome.ie/residential/search … APME389258
For Rent Link
daft.ie/searchrental.daft?id=674440

51 Orwell Park
For Sale €6.6 Million
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/search … PKSCP304972

7 Orwell Park
For Sale €3.9 Million
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/search/brochure/renvyle-rathgar-dublin-co&-city/RNSDR335638

https://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/property/2009/0212/1233867932643.html

Another addition to Orwell Parks sale/rental listing.

69 Orwell Park, Rathgar, Dublin 6
For Sale €3.7 Million
myhome.ie/residential/search … XOIW396675

Orwell Park is different :angry:

Metaphysical Economis 101. Lesson 1. When the public fails to understand the intrinsic value or can’t afford to buy homes, the sellers should remove all properties from the market. This will immediately result in pent up demand for property as buyers, or even would-be shoppers, suddenly panic at the lack of buying opportunities. Think of entering a supermarket one day and finding the shelfs empty; although everybody knows all the merchandise is in the back waiting to be stacked on the shelves. Sure, you can ask any price now.*

*This supply and demand technique works particularly well during recessions but is not usually needed during growing economies, or should only be used sporadically to gradually ramp up demand. During boom times, you do not need to apply this technique as the feckers will buy any property for any insane price.

Is there a shortage of “family homes” in south dublin?

seems to me that most new builds over last five years or so were apartments which are not ideal for raising kids once the kids a little older

There is a shortage of family homes at realistic prices.

You will be swamped by sub-standard semi-d’s at beverly hills prices though.

You’ll have to define “family homes”

There are plenty of the physical units in S.Dublin, the problem is that they aren’t for sale !

There was an interesting post on here awhile ago pointing out that S.Dublin itself has become distinctly less family friendly by virtue of things like; schools selling their grounds to developers, & the ‘greying’ of neighbourhoods & hence a lot less tolerance of children, (i.e. noise & mess ).

The biggest issue is that there aren’t too many couples who earn enough to have 3-4 kids & pony up 5-600k for a house in leafy S.Dublin.