Supply is down. Is it time to trade up?

Family home - 1500 sq foot odd house, bit of a garden, quiet road for kids to ride their bikes on, climb a tree, kick a football

Well, the “greying” of areas such as Dun laoghaire is simply because people with young families or about to have them haven’t a hope of buying there because prices went through the roof. Some schools have actually closed in Dun Laoghaire.

Why get 500k now when we can sit on our asses, keep paying the mortgage and then get 300k at the end of it all?

Another reason for that is because teachers cannot afford to live in such areas, get jobs in Navan because they are living there anyway and work out that the commute isn’t worth it.
The damage this bubble has wrought on society…

Fixed that typo for ya.

A+

OK, so at the risk of being flamed … I think supply of s/h homes (we are looking in Sth Co. Dublin, and have been for almost 4 years) is down, and *down a lot *from 2-3 years back.

Why? Well, in the midst of the bubble’s peak (2005/6), we would see property come on and off the market in about 8 or 10 weeks. So although something like Daftwatch (at a given moment in time) would see 1 property for sale, over the course of a year, there would be 5-6 different properties occupying that “slot” in the for sale lists.

Now, in 2009, we are seeing property stay on the market for >1 year (in fact, two properties I looked at in 2007 have just reached their 2nd anniversary on the market). But the supply of new property coming on is incredibly slow - only 8 new houses meeting our price/location criteria have come on this year, contrasting to around 30-40 in 2005 or 06. The key issue is in 05/06, nearly all of these new houses had gone sale agreed weeks after coming on, to be replaced by “new” stock coming on in those following weeks. But that’s not happening at present. So we have little to look at - what’s on the market is over-priced, people are not taking offers - and we are at stalemate.

We need a jump in properties coming on for sale to accelerate things. At present, that’s simply not happening. My bet is that it will in the next 12 months as reposessions/tax rises really impact things. We’ll see :confused:

What the hell is a “S/H” home? :question:

Second Hand.

Tut…damn newbies!! :smiley:

Second hand ?

Fair enough I thought it was some SoCo slang that those looking for “well appointed” gaffs trade in… No shortage of S/H where I’m looking!!!* :wink:

*Not actively o’course… :nin

Well this is backed up with data on the Count of the Number of Properites for Sale (Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2009 6:36 pm) thread.

Properties for sale Jan 08 - just over 55,000. Properties for sale Jan 09 - Just under 75,000.
Hardly a tightening of supply. In fact I’d be so bold as to say that’s an increase of 36% in supply!!!

https://daftwatch.atspace.com/daftwatch.gif

And for Dublin…only an increase of around 1500…approx 27%

https://daftwatch.atspace.com/daftsales_c1.gif

Let me get this right. The advise to sellers is…
If you want to sell your house…the best thing to do…is not sell it?

Wow! you know that could work. Why just this morning I sat in my living room and really concentrated
on not selling any Bank of Ireland Shares, and boom, they went up 6%.

Could we get a million people for a rally at the Papal Cross, all concentrating really hard on not selling houses.
I think this could actually work. And DMcW could write “The Popes Children 2 - Saved by Delayed Gratification”

-Rd

Supply is down???
Perhaps the term “supply” should be qualified:
Supply of newly built proerties are definitely down.
Supply of properties from sellers selling to trade up is most probably down as they know they can’t sell.
Supply of properties from people who have no choice but to sell or have their house repossessed will be UP - there will be a time lag given the grace period and mortgage break given by banks, and mass psychology to “hang on” in the hope of riding out the storm…
But given the economic crisis, the Budget, and the worsening employment situation, and the number of people who bought in 2006 and 2007 who are in negative equity, many more will have no choice but to sell when they lose their jobs or cannot afford the mortgage on a lower income.
THE SUPPLY OF FORCED SALES and REPOSSESSED PROPERTIES will definitely be going up in 2010!

OK, I’ll try again :slight_smile:

If you say that on average 40K properties were for sale through 2006, but that on average they sat on the market for only 10 weeks each, then that says 200K units cleared (were supplied) to the market in 2006.

Now, in 2009, with 75,000 for sale but average time to sell (it seems to me looking in our area) reaching a year for many houses, only 75,000 units are clearing (are being supplied to buyers) in 2009.

So buyers who are active in the market have only 30% of the choice they had 3 years ago. That’s a collapse in supply for me as a buyer.

In 2006, near the peak of the property boom, FTBs accounted for 37064 mortgages and Investors accounted for 28141 mortgages, that’s a total of 65205, say add another 10,000 for cash buyers and trader uppers holding onto their primary residence, and you are only looking at a total of 75K units being ‘consumed’.

Figures taken from the IBF Market Profile report.

ibf.ie/pdfs/IBFPwCMortgageMa … leQ407.pdf

Neffa, where is your 200k figure coming from?

Edit: Ah, you may be including trader uppers buying and selling from other trader uppers? Net effect on actual supply would be small, but they would add significantly to total number of transactions.

BTW, the level of transactions in 2006, 2005 and earlier was unsustainable, predicated on full employment, wildly loose credit and massive population growth. Obviously, none of these will apply again for many, many years.

Yep, no argument that it 2005 and 2006 were madly unsustainable - I’m not in any way defending the prices. My point is that - if you put yourself in the shoes of a buyer now vs. then - there is nowhere near the choice of second-hand stock coming onto the market or turning over in the market relative to 3-4 years back. So although Daftwatch shows higher numbers, it doesn’t show turnover of stock.

For instance, there are about 15 properties near us in our price range and size at present. 9 have been on the market for 6 months or more. 6 for roughly a year or more. 3-4 years ago, we saw 3-4 properties per week coming on which met our criteria in size (although wildly over-priced). So supply has effectively dried up. I am assuming that when unemployment and/or reposessions kick in, we’ll see a deluge of stock coming on.

200K was assumed 40K on daftwatch, 10 weeks per house, 5 “turns” in house units per year. Maybe very high and I’m sure your analysis is better, but the turnover now is a fraction of what it was then and net supply of cleared property has surely plummeted…

the trading up market is effectively dead as difficult to sell starter apartment and gap to the 3/4 bed house difficult to bridge because of bank requirements on lending, find deposit, stamp duty and sale prices of those houses being sticky unless seller has to sell for financial, family reasons

so people will stay put, consolidate as best they can and wait and see what happens