Supply.. or lack thereof

In fairness there’s always going to be more cash for sales in Dublin than Cork, capital city and all that.
Also you can’t just assume that the billion + for the tribunals in SCD just evaporated.

I have MyHome and Daft rss feeds running for 3-bed semis under 300K in Cork (areas: Ballinlough, Blackrock, Ballintemple, City centre)

There has been almost zero supply of nice houses over the past 6 months. I could count them on one hand.

What’s the story?

You have witnessed the calm before the storm.

Not to worry, the Troika have come riding into town and the Dunne Judgement will be overturned by the end of March. By June you will see plenty of new supply to the market.

Source:irishexaminer.com/analysis/troika-to-focus-on-mortgage-crisis-220846.html

Many family’s over stretch to take out as big as mortgage as possible to ‘secure’ the home of their dreams, they cannot possible sell due to the negative equity.

I plotted the supply of houses in Co.Galway and found that the supply started dropping off August 2011, right after the judgement preventing repossessions was passed.
I can only extrapolate that once this repossession loophole has been fixed, the banks will want to foreclose on those who have not paid their mortgage for 18+ months.
Fair enough they are not going to repossess all in arrears, but I would estimate that 15% to 20% will be foreclosed upon, many of these family houses.

If supply has not increased by the end of the summer, then I am wrong and I see no foreseeable increase in supply because the establishment will not allow that to happen. hover since it is the Troika in charge and not the establishment then that is not likely.

IMO, last year was a dead cat bounce.

https://howcanoneknow.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Dead-cat-bounce-graph-yahoo-finance.gif

I suspect that you will turn out to be correct about the second-half 2013 supply increase and renewed price falls after the recent dead-cat bounce but of course who knows for sure.

I really cant see supply going any lower than it is, which is ok as long as demand is restrained compared to last year.
With the supply restrained and peoples enthusiasm for bidding against each other, it is easy to see that if lending criteria was reduced back to boom levels prices would now be rising exponentially.

On that note; we put bids in on a couple of houses last year and got outbid almost right away. I would not increase any bid I entered because 1) I did not want to push up prices 2) I did not want to over pay and 3) I do not want to bid against any phantom bidders.
One of those houses we bid on is still not on the property register and the other one is listed 2k above our bid.

[edit] We have now found far more suitable houses than those mentioned above and will be perusing those opertuinities instead. In reflection we are glad that we did not get either of those houses.