What multiplier should be applied to get the realistic number?
It’s not a confirmation. He’s only quoting recent estimates.
from an ESRI report(Chapter 4) 2017 forecasting 640k - 1.1m population increase by 2030
Max 450k through immigration, rest of the 1.1m from people living longer and increased fertility rates
When the big bang EU enlargement happened back in 2004, the Govt of the day estimated we’d get 20,000 people in total coming to Ireland from the likes of Poland, Romania etc.
That amount arrived in the first few months alone.
So when I hear figures of 500k, I’m assuming it will be double that as they only thing happening here is downplaying the likely outcome.
When the M50 was first opened it was envisaged that at the projections at the time it would not need expansion until 2015 I think. Well that didn’t work out.
I wouldn’t discount that trends can go in reverse, as they did in after the bust, but demographics will actually lead to competition for emigrants from a dwindling pool.
Anyway there’s enough of these treads about demographic changes to make a jumbo tread about it and the effects on migration.
I think your wrong on a number of counts.
1 - Romania joined in 2007
the projections were between 20 to 45 k per year
Project was for 5.2 m in 2021, which by accident is what were heading for
Ok, I got Romania wrong but I could have named several other countries who came in with Poland. Nit picking much?
Looks like I got the 20,000 figure wrong too, as you did yourself…I should have said 2,000!!!
irishtimes.com/opinion/lett … -1.1088489
In my opinion intra-EU migration has been a hugely positive thing for Ireland, with very few, if any, downsides.
Its like they want to punish the leave voters, very foolish
There are always pro’s and con’s in life. From a numbers point of view in terms of the property market, the 2004 accession states expansion certainly fuelled Property Bubble B as a segway out of the tail end of Property Bubble A which suited Politicians and everyone nicely until it didn’t, a pro that ended up as a con that has had innumerable long lasting negative conseicnes for millions of people, but hey that’s hyper population expansion for you, “we are where we are!”
However dealing without the context of the link in the OP, it doesn’t seem to be the point one bit, all I heard was Africa, Africa, Africa, very little talk about our fellow EU citizens of which there is a multi million sized pool of unemployed youth untapped it might seem with pre-existing ability to intra-their-asses from EU state to state, perhaps Europe didn’t train enough rocket scientists in it’s 3rd level institutes.
If they’re benefits for us, and overall I think it’s been beneficial, then there are drawbacks for eastern European countries with already declining populations?
Like living in an 80s Ireland
Latest data on UK migration. The EU migration they can’t really control is falling while the migration from outside the EU, which they can control, continues to increase
Swings and roundabouts, Poland is booming, a lot of educated and professional Poles can boost their own country when moving back.
Romania is doing relatively okay too, our place has most of the IT work done in Romania not just for the EU but for our global business . Mostly it works over the long term.
There’s probably rural depopulation, but the cities, at least in Poland, are booming. It has pretty much shrugged off the departures and I reckon the departure rate from Poland will be low in years to come, albeit like the Irish I think they have the taste for it at this stage!
Is it true that the UN Pact on replacement migration seeks to criminalise any criticism of migration?
There is nothing about criticism of migration being prohibited in the document being signed in Marrakesh, which is not legally binding in any event.
But it was an extraordinary statement from an EU spokesman to reveal this intent. They must be using it to test the waters out there.
From the tanaiste, linked in opening post
Put two and two together, at the very least it’s an unnecessary step to silencing debate. Very undemocratic in nature
Keyword = we
If his intent is to suppress debate then it is dangerous as well as undemocratic, on the other hand if he wants to shape inward migration so that people arriving are integrated and included then perhaps it is positive but the usual path is funding for quangos or NGO’s to produce reports with liberal leanings as fodder for press releases and this is probably all that will happen.