it depends on how many multinationals come here to domicile their earnings here,
should the government increase corporation tax, all bets are off!
We can expect VAT receipts to collapse naturally enough,
declining population, higher taxes reducing disposable income, less people employed, less government expenditure finding its way into people’s pockets (bankers aside), cheaper electricity bills & gas bills will reduce VAT receipts
As consumer spending plummets, retail employment will plummet so income taxes will fall (more redundancies benefiting from state aid will create a negative income tax flow to the government)
capital gains - well these will fall, because even people that wold have accumulated gains in their properties over the past 15 years will finding no-one buying them, so they can’t sell to realise the gains. Also people will not be spending as much and the number of credit cards will continue to fall reducing stamp duty further.
stamp duty - more people will shop across the border as pubs/off licences refuse to pass on reductions
So its difficult to believe that taxes will remain anywhere near EUR 34 billion - unless the pharmaceutical and locally domiciled head offices of the multinationals start pumping in profits for the Government.