TCD Professor Agrees with 2Pack

I should put this in the signs of recovery thread maybe :smiley:

The last Daft report received coverage like so

As this prediction prediction was made in April 2010 the 18 month period brings us out to October 2011.

Those of you with long memories will remember that October 2011 has long been my predicted market bottom date

I would like to send a message over to Trinity that I am not changing that date either and to congratulate them for getting on the program. Mind you Morgan Kelly in UCD contemporeaneously gave more or less the same prediction that I did minus a specific month so I am giving UCD a joint credit with me for this :slight_smile:

He doesn’t say prices will stop dropping in 18 months, he only says they will not stop dropping for 18 months. They may continue dropping thereafter.

Sneaky professor coving his ass!

Where is the link to what this anonymous TCD professor said?

Anything about Fruit juice by any chance?

So who’s an arrgoant git today then. Well done yet again 2Pack

Link in there,

Or in October 2011 like 2pack said in 2007…and never changed since.

bit premature seeing as you will both be wrong

Giz a month so ewd3 :slight_smile:

Settles back with a nice cool glass of Orange juice in Ireland

Koolaid not available.

well I’m following the advice of the financial markets…

So what happens to prices after October 2011 ?
Do they rise again or flatline ?

Personally, I don’t go by dates, but on de fundementals (yield, income multiples, supply and demand etc).

No doubt these predictions take into account the interest rates, so whereabouts in the cycle will we be in October 2011? The top? I doubt it, but if we are, it’ll only be because we are sliding back into the mire. The only scenario I can see where house prices bottom out with rising rates is if there is a panic about the currency. Even with high inflation, affordability will contract quicker than wages will grow. If the economy improved (home and abroad) Dublin might bottom out by October '11, but nationally the slide will continue.

With interest rates still on an upward trajectory along with declining real incomes and increased taxation I think price falls will continue beyond 2011. Thereafter I think prices in real terms will bounce around the bottom for upwards of a decade.

I believe I also said late '11 early '12 :wink: (edging towards 2012 now) Agree with the above re a long time flat.

Talk about blowing your own trumpet. We’ve had the most outrageous property bubble in the western world. We are stuck in a deflationary cycle as we are locked into the euro. Your off your mind if you think everything just goes back up after 18 months. Why not 15, 20, 25 months?

All serious analysis points to a decline beyond 2012. At this point in time, I cannot predict the bottom as there is too many factors telling me otherwise.

Unless your predicting NAMA will put a floor on the market :neutral_face: :open_mouth:

Taking a national agerage price we may well see a bottoming out in late 2011 but I am still of the belief that it will be a long slow slide in the west and north west for 5 + years after this date. This is the problem inherent in averages.

A halt to declines is not the same as “everything going back up”. As odd as it may seem it’s possible for property to be experiencing neither massive gains nor massive losses.

I assume that is nominal bottom not real bottom. Generally around 50% of the post bubble drop in real prices is in the initial fall in nominal prices over the first 3 or 4 years. The rest of the real price drop happens during in a long period of little or no price increase where inflation does its work.

With the all the current attempts to distort the market by the government the real bottom will probably not be till the late teens / early 20’s and we are looking at an eventual drop of 90% in real prices over peak in 2007.

So maybe not only will Ireland have the most expensive bank bailout ever but it is on track to have the largest post bubble fall in real property prices since the Black Death…

Bring out your dead…

October 2011 is too soon IMO. I’d give it another year after that.

If 2Pack is right though (and let’s face it, that’s pretty likely) it will mean that the period between the end of the mortgage moratorium and October 2011 will be a bloodbath. The whole shooting match would need to unwind in those short 8 or 10 months or whatever it is. I can’t see it being that quick.

Glass of orange juice? :stuck_out_tongue:

It’s more a case of trying to figure out exactly what type of debt forgiveness we’ll see.

Will be “sure let them pay what they can afford and keep the house” debt forgiveness, “everyone gets 20% off their mortgage” debt forgiveness or simply some sort of scheme to try and mitigate the negative effects of NE (e.g. portability).

Repossessions seem unlikely to me without riots.