Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?


Eh, no. Some people post stuff that indicates they are nt paying attention to a story. Libeled party very quiet. etc. . Suspicious. Must be guilty of something…Whereas he had several interviews including a long one on an Australian ABC TV not that long ago. Plus a bunch of stories out of Atlanta from the lawyers. Who have a long track record in this area of representing private citizens who have been the victims of trial by media. All of this covered by the local Bay Area media. Plus all the other horror stories out of the Fremont factory. Of which there is a never ending stream. A quick look at the SJ Merc will get you up to speed.

Lets just say the tone of your posting gave every indication that you know fuck all about the story, just some random story you saw on a low information cable channel. CNBC…sheesh…

Anyway, if the trial does go to the jury trial stage that is one juror challenge marathon that would be fun to watch. It all depends on the judge whether it turns into a total TMZ style circus.

None of this distracts from the fact that Musk is an utterly criminal scumbag.


Breaking: Tesla is under investigation by the U.S. Justice Department over public statements made by the company and Elon Musk. The criminal probe is running alongside a previously reported civil inquiry by securities regulators wbca.st/NJcUxNw


Looks like they didn’t.

If Tesla are under SEC investigation, how can they possibly expect to raise money?

I have just bought some crazy out of the money put options for the laugh.




The full SEC complaint document is here…


… and its a doozy.

(typical Feds…you need to add the file type prefix to file (.PDF))

Lets just say that a complaint like that usually ends up in jail time. Eventually.


Maybe, but will the US government lock up the man who runs the company that is on track to launch the majority of their spy and comm sats


I was more getting the feeling Musk has been the enthusiastic and unwitting poster boy for the privatisation of space which suited the likes of the five eyes, but since Trump has set the US Space force on a trajectory of ascendancy, the direct conflict has forced a sooner rather than later need to consolidate global five eye assets… and I’ll tack on something to do with the Chinese for good measure but don’t ask me why right now.


All the fun NSA / NRO stuff is always heavy lift. so Lockheed Martin. Plus if Musk thinks the gov contracts are a get out of jail card then he does not know his history. SpaceX will be involuntarily merged with one of the other main contractor if the need arises. A whatever price the Feds deem “fair”. Which might be zero. Its not like it has not happened before.


Which is just ULA

After 2020 if anything goes wrong with SpaceX I think Blue Origin would be the big winners


I dont think he will do jail time. The SEC probably will look to bar him permanently from acting as a director. The most likely thing to happen is he will reconsider the offer when he is high. Either way Tesla as a cult is in trouble. Without Musk its an overpriced car company that makes poor quality cars and good batteries.With Musk, its an overpriced cultish car company that cant raise money and wil be bust in a year.


Electric car rivals revved up to challenge Tesla - ft.com/content/3f5ded00-bd7 … b72926558f via @FT


I suppose because most of the fun stuff is usually lobbed from Vandenberg I tend to think of it as a Lockheed Martin show. I think the McDonald Douglas stuff tends to be Cape Canaveral. Given that these are mostly heavies, and some of the payloads are really really big, I dont see the billionaire toy rocket company operators making much of an inroad into this particular market.

I really wish they would launch the heavies at sunset. It would be one hell of a light show. The Minutemans fired at the Marshall islands sometimes lift off around sunset and its a pretty spectacular light show. And those are small rockets. Compared to the heavies. Definitely worth a trip out to Jalama Beach to see that. Or for an even better view, try to get an invite to Hollister Ranch through a friend of a friend.


I think is about 50/50 that if Musk is still around in decade or so he will be facing jail time in some form or other. In these situations its a pure lottery. There are a hell of a lot of people who can sue Musk, now, and in the future, and which case hits the jackpot so to speak is a pure random walk. For example Milliken went to jail but real crooks like Posner did nt. Go figure.

It takes time. Look how long it has taken just to shutdown an outright fraud like Thearos. Holmes might go to jail but the true prime movers of the fraud like Draper are unlikely to face jail. On a scale of 1 to 10 for financial fraudsters and con artists if Holmes is a 5 I’d rate Musk as somewhere around 11.

We’ll see just how long Musks luck holds out. One more serious multi day coke bender plus years of steroid abuse might land him in the obits column sooner rather than later. Which would save the board and the investors a lot of near term grief and give them time to liquidate their holdings before the final collapse into Chapter 7.


The ULA Delta IV Heavy can send about 25 tons to LEO, the SpaceX Falcon Heavy can send over 60 tons to LEO, for a fraction of the price, the billionaire clearly has the better rockets, not even the Russians or Chinese can match them, and late next year its possible that we will see the upper stage of the BFR being tested

In 2020 Blue Origin will launch the New Glenn with a possible payload of 45 tons to LEO, Blue are also working on a bigger rocket called the New Armstrong, based on the name its Saturn V or BFR sized, the billionaires are winning, longing term I can’t see ULA staying in the launch business, Lockheed and Boeing will just build the payloads, plenty of profit in end of the industry

Yeah I would love to see one, once the SpaceX launch rate goes up in the next few years I plan on making a trip over to watch one


One launch does not make a platform.

Given the history of the Atlas and Delta series, as well as Ariane (let alone the Russians) I’d like to see the payload insurance rates for commercial loads until the new guys have a track record. Fed payloads are another matter.

Call me cynical but I remember when the Space Shuttle type launch vehicles were touted as the next big thing. Never did work out.

As for ULA I see that s just a short term corp marriage of convenience to ride of the era of the deep pocket billionaires hobby companies. Neither Lockheed nor Douglas can compete short term with people willing to lose billions to finance their hobby but the parent companies have a business time scale perspective measure in decades. So in decades to come I expect the LM and McD/D guys to be still building launch systems long after the current interlopers have been long gone. And I expect the old timers to have picked up anything of value that was developed by the interlopers and to have incorporate it into their product line. Just like they did in the past. These are all companies with corp histories of almost 100 years by this stage. They have survived this long for a very good reason. They tend to think in multi-decade scale strategies. So they never ever should be underestimated. Payload fab makes money but its the launch vehicles that have the real multi use tie in. Which is where the real money is.


Musk and Tesla settle with the SEC. Think it’s fair to say, that this is probably the best possible outcome that Musk could have gotten here. The interesting bits below.


It’s also rather funny that Tesla shareholders who have done nothing wrong here will have to pay $20m restitution for the actions of their CEO. Will they care? Probably not.


Yeah but 60+ launches does

If you think this is the same as the Shuttle, well then you clearly don’t understand whats happening

No, ULA started was in 2006, two years before SpaceX launched the Falcon 1, ULA was stared to gouge massive amounts of money from the US tax payer, from the start ULA assumed that SpaceX would fail, Musk wasn’t a billionaire at the time, so TBF to ULA, the Russians, Europe, China, ect, the clever bet was to assume that SpaceX would fail, once the Falcon 9 reached orbit they should have woke up, the fantasy ideas about SpaceX losing money on every launch gets more outlandish every time they deliver a payload to orbit or beyond

Well if thats the case ULA really need to come up with a better plan then the Vulcan, look up the videos on youtube, now TBF their plans might work, but I just don’t see how they can have Lower launch prices than Blue Origin, how the hell can they under cut a rival, if their rival is selling them most important part of the rocket, good luck with that

So if they can’t undercut Blue Origin then how will they undercut SpaceX


I was talking about heavy lift, the only bit the Feds TLA’s care about. Commercial is commercial. Comes and goes. Mostly small potatoes in the bigger scheme of things.

It may not be obvious to outsiders but the US commercial launch business is a small add on (in dollar terms)to the real business of heavy launch TLA payloads and all the ICBM’s and SLBM’s. Which is the serious part of the space launch business. Whether this is value for money is neither here nor there. For a start the DOD multi decade projects are a bit like central bank money, its a completely different universe where normal accounting logic rules dont really apply. Once heard a funny conversation about trying to apply commercial airframe depreciation rules to military airframes. It was Boeing people, or course. Given how many times a typical B 52 has been rebuilt over the decades is it one frame or actually three. For accounting purposes. Or probably five by this stage. Or how about using the EPA / DOE accounting rules for environmental enhancement due to capital outlay and the credits involved. Using those rules just one ICBM wing could net the DOD several hundred billion in credits due to its deterrence of massive environmental degradation due to Russian nukes going off somewhere in the 48. And so forth. Repeat ad-infinitum.

You’re not in Kansas any more. And neither are the ICBMS it seems - mostly in the High Plains nowadays. With a few kept in reserve for second strike capability just up the coast from the Space X facility at Vandenberg. If the shit ever does hit the fan being anywhere within a 200 mile radius of Vandenberg is a very good place to be. Its fully ABM’ed, a multi-layered defense, precisely because of those spare Minuteman III’s sitting in those silos as a second strike insurance policy.

This is a very weird parallel universe of which the commercial space launch business is just a small appendage. So the new guys on the block will have their fun for a while and after a decade or so will get folded back into one of the old timers. Who will keep on churning along as they always do on their multi decade military programmes. Just like their Russian and Chinese analogues.


It will be interesting to read the post game analysis but my initial take is - Strike One against Musk. With the SEC lawyers basically giving broad hints to the Fed DA’s out there - maybe some of you guys should start doing prelim work for a RICO. Plenty to go on.

This is a long game. The fact the SEC moved so fast indicates that they want it out of the DC arena and out there in Fed Court land. Where the lobbyists and pols cannot run such effective interference. Like they can in DC.

It will be interesting to see if any of the Fed DA’s take the bait in the next year or two. As I said, a long game.