Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?


#2068

Well the problem I have with that argument is - So did John DeLorean…

And I did not have to pay tax to pay for the DeLorean gamble. Although the UK taxpayer did lose 100M on the Belfast factory.

So far all that Musk has produced is about 200K’ish cars that are about twice as expensive as their gas powered market sector competitors. And lost somewhere north of $6B to do this. Plus about $1B plus of taxpayers money.

The hype around DeLorean was just as positive as the hype around Musk. Right up to the moment DeLorean was busted for the coke deal.

Anyway, this soap still has someways to play yet. With either a OD, a 5150, or a Robert Maxwell finale. Because Musk is no Bill Lear or Edwin Land. Not by a long long way. Both of those guys were actually the real deal. If a bit rough around the edges. Thats what true technically innovative entrepreneurs really look like. Not just some coked up media whore who lives in Bel Air.

Tesla is basically little more than a multi billion dollar reality tv show.


#2069

Im no fan of Musk but Tesla is one of the companies making batteries suck less, along with Panasonic and a few other mainly CHN, US and JP companies
Credit where credit is due. The price differential in Europe is not as great as we already have expensive cars due to taxation
Anything to ween us of the Saudi / Middle East basket cases is a good start


#2070

But you did pay for the GM bailout, and it was a lot more than $100 million

Tesla seem to match their competitors on price but beat them on running costs and some might say performance

As I’m sure you know its not really that simple, even if zero barrels of oil from Saudi Arabia/Middle East reach the US, disruption to Saudi production will cause price rises everywhere, and the Saudis also recycle their petro dollars back into the US/Western economy, its a complex issue lot of a lotta ins, lotta outs, lotta what have you’s.

But the oil is still there, its not going anywhere, it can be extracted at a later date

I disagree, a country like Ireland has a lot to gain from EVs, and most people will love them, a large number of people switched to Diesel to save a little at the pump and on tax, they won’t be long moving to EVs once the right cars hit the market


#2071

So? GM was bailed out to support the supplier chain. No other reason. More importantly, every time I pump gas into my car I am not directly paying for the GM bailout. Still. Almost $1 of every $4 per gallon goes directly or indirectly to the EV/etc scam artists.

The exact non EV competitor of the Model S is a Porsche Panamara. Its almost half the price. The direct no-EV competitor for the Model 3 is a Honda Accord. Its about half the price. That same size, same trim cars, side by side on the street. They do not look competitive to me. BY far the biggest running cost of a new car around here is not fuel but depreciation. Which Teslas do very very well. At $2.50 a gallon hybrids let alone EV’s are a very bad deal even on the fuel cost side. So thats why they have been jacking up gas prices every way they can in the state. About $4 at the moment. Rather than less than $2.60 a few states over. Not that long ago we were in the $2 range. Even in CA.

We have lots of oil. The greens just wont let us drill for most of it. EV’s were created by partisan distortions of our regulatory regime. Pretty much end of story. You want to stop buying ME oil guess what, the Chinese will gladly buy it. If you want to destroy your economy through artificially high energy costs go on ahead and do it. The Chinese and other SE Asians will love you for it as they grow their very strong economies on top of cheap energy. The recycled petro dollar argument might have been true 10 or 15 years ago but not any more. The US is the biggest producer, the Chinese the biggest importer. And as the Saudi’s discovered recently, the Permian Basin guys can turn capacity on and off far faster and far cheaper than the Saudis can. So OPEC is dead.

Completely agree. But in the meantime they have destroyed the states manufacturing economy. All moved out of state.

Well given that Ireland has always had exceptionally expensive cars and running costs cannot disagree with you there. But when the MNC tax haven business model runs its course and the country has to fend for itself again I can see motoring returning to be a luxury for the few. Just like in the old days. The first time I drove in Ireland it was still the norm for people to wait the roads out of every village and town to thumb a lift. And it was the norm to give people a lift if you had a spare seat. That past will be Ireland driving future if it bets its transportation policy on EV’s and “renewable” energy. Both very very expense luxuries.


#2072

California proven oil reserves according to EIA (Federal Government agency)

eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_pres_dcu_SCA_a.htm


#2073

Whatever about jmc’s points on the “real” costs of EV, there’s 2 very, very good reasons for moving away from a oil-based ICE:

1 - burning that stuff creates poisonous fumes. regardless of any opinion on global warming, burning oil (and oil derivatives) poisons the enviornment
2 - much much more important: oil is a great, finite, natural resource that is so much more useful for hundreds of thousands of different purposes that it is borderline insane to set it on fire.

I mean you can recycle a lot of stuff and reuse, and we do that already, but you can’t recycle oil that has been refined to petrol or diesel and burned in an combustion engine. When it’s gone, it’s gone.

I think that nuclear power plus renewable energy combined with battery improvements is well worth spending money on. More electric cars, trucks, transport!


#2074

A 30% reduction in proven reserves in five years, at that rate it’ll be gone in ten years.
Realistically, 20 years as production tails off.


#2075

Well if you ever talk to any petroleum geologists who works out West you will discover just how low and meaningless those numbers are. I think the “proven” reserves number have budged little in 40 plus years. Despite all the production. I think they have produced about 3x “proven” reserves in that time. Which are still about the same as when they started. For a start, there are very good tax reasons as well as business reasons to vastly understate your “proven” reserves. For any given oil lease. If you have every had to read through oil lease income / production statements you will know what I mean. Arcane does not being to describe this area. Deliberately obscure and misleading by design. At each stage of the process and between all parties. The oil companies, especially the small indies, may be lying thieving bastards who will screw you if given half the chance but they are still far more trustworthy that the greens and their politically motivated “science”. Ultimately the oil business is about profit. Whereas with the greens its little more than a revealed religion to be taken on faith. So me, I’ll put my faith in the dollar guys.

I also remember reading a quite interesting technical discussion of the Monterrey formation back in the 1980’s which the most recent BOM report tried to rubbish. Seems the geology is now “wrong” for development. Which it wasnt 35 years ago. Just like what the same sort of people said about the Permian Basin. Before it became a major oil province.


#2076

Batteries are getting cheaper every year.

cleantechnica.com/2017/12/11/ba … g-cheaper/

You’ve now got multiple big car vendors going into electric cars in a big way.

It’s ludicrous to think they won’t be cheaper compared to ICE cars over time…And then you add in the govt incentives to switch.

JMC is just as zealous as the greenies he constantly criticises.


#2077

Nope. Just been living the politics for decades. Not second hand and via PR press handouts which seems to be most of the postings here.

It only became personal when one of the side effects of the CARB’s MTBE scandal back in the 1990’s they destroyed the fuel pump of my car. About $300 repairs. I was lucky it did not fail on the freeway where my car would have burned. Like many thousands of others. They also poisoned the water table in several counties. It was the complete non coverage of this story, apart from places like South Lake Tahoe losing its drinking water supply due to MTBE contamination, that first got me interested in CARBs very corrupt history. And how remarkably little coverage it got in the media. A very incurious lot for some strange reason.

Which inevitably led to the EV saga. Which like “renables” is another multi billion dollar scam. Follow the money. Always.

To you this is all terribly abstract. You only see the odd EV on the road in Ireland and you are used to being utterly screwed on energy prices. To me this is something I have seen in my energy bills for years and every time I fill up my car with gas. Mostly because of the “renewable” energy scams. Costs me several thousand dollars a year. Whereas Ireland , and most of Europe, is now where California was back in the late 1990’s. You guys are a few decades behind the curve. I have seen this movie before. It does not end well. As the Germans are beginning to discover. And you will, with time.


#2078

Eh no. The US is catching up with Europe in terms of making energy more expensive. Ireland specifically has applied punitive rates of VRT based first on engine size, and then on carbon emissions (yeah, apart from the gaming of the measurements by VW etc), with the result that Ireland has had for a long time a fleet of small, relatively efficient cars. This is bad from a petrolhead perspective but even aside from the environmental impact, taxing consumer goods made outside the State is probably better for the economy than taxing other things.

You will learn to appreciate this, with time. Or not, probably.


#2079

The instant benefit to switching to EV’s even if you still make the electricity by burning fossils is the massive improvement in air quality in cities.

Try explaining to a child what would happen if you breathed the stuff coming out of the tailpipe of the cars passing for even a short length of time as you walk them to school and look at the reaction on their face.

Its ludicrous that we actually pump out huge volumes of poisonous gas and lung damaging particulates in the environment where we live.

As for JMC’s subsidy’s. The ICE cars massive subsidy is that they dont have to pay for the waste, everyone else fits the bill. The tab for the health damaging effects of breathing particulates and poisonous exhaust fumes is picked up by the tax payer or when you pay for Health insurance that’s not including the loss of tax and productivity that comes with ill heath and that before we get into the environmental costs from all the CO2.

This is the massive subsidy for fossil fueal cars that we are all paying. Its just until very recently we had no alternative.

What price would petrol be if it had to pay for the ill health, early death, loss of productivity and environmental damage it costs?

To say that EV’s are subsidized and fossil cars are not it disingenuous at best.


#2080

No some states are making energy more expensive for purely ideological reasons. Those states that don’t have high rates of growth. Those states that do have low rates of economic growth. The state of California has lost many hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs due to ideologically driven high energy cost, mostly to states that dont. The latest trend is for regional logistic distribution centers to move from the ports to the states of Nevada and Arizona. Yet another sector priced out of state due to artificially high energy costs.

I’d take the EV people more seriously if, in the case of Ireland, they were pushing for a massive increase in base load generation capacity using French / Finnish built nukes and natural gas generators and building out the infrastructure to support than. But no, more fucking windmills. A great way to pump water on a farm but thats about the limit of their usefulness. The tax / regulatory regime for cars in Ireland, especially the more recent changes, have far more to do with forcing people to buy new cars and keeping the average age low (courtesy, and for the benefit of, of the car dealers) than any sane national economic policy. Just like Japan.

EV’s have always been, and always be, a way of giving a taxpayer subsidy to affluent drivers. The only question left to answered is will the greens be allowed to game the system in such a ways that only the affluent will be able to afford to drive in the future. The certainly looks like their plan at the moment. The well-to-do keep their expensive EV’s to tootle about in comfort while the rest of us, mere plebs, have to shuffle about on public transport.


#2081

The locals may not do it in Ireland but there has been very active monitoring of emissions in places like California for many many decades. We are talking p.p.m. And often p.p.b. In your car air intake while stuck in a traffic jam. Take it from someone who remembers when the default color of the air in LA was reddish brown and whose eyes stung and teared on a regular basis from the smog. Even then that was p.p.m. So the “we are poisoning the world” argument is pure hokum.

Now the high sulfur Polish coal burnt in the fireplaces of Dublin, that was a very different matter. That was high p.p.m H2SO4. You probably grew up breathing in that nasty shit.

But we are back to the magical thinking of the EV people. Where is the E of the EV to come from? The base load capacity? The only “renewable” that can be used for base load is hydro. And you cannot build dams any more. Because of the greens. In fact they want to knock them down.

The modern economy is based on cheap hydrocarbon energy. You want to get rid of it for purely ideological reasons, because there sure are no scientific or economic ones, then start by living by you own principals. How long would you survive in a pre industrial society? Because thats what the greens are proposing. And what about all those “excess” people? Because the carrying capacity of a non hydrocarbon based economy is about 1/20’th of our current one.

Here is the simply fact. The Chinese, Indians and other developing economies are not buying into this bullshit. They will try, for very good economic reasons, to maximize GDP per m.b.e oil consumption but thats about it. Their interest in EV is purely as just some more new shit they can sell to the west. But when push comes to shove they will base their economies on what what them richest / fastest. Which is petrol/ diesel bases transportation and coal/gas/oil electric generation.

China already buys far more cars than the US or Europe. And India buys more than Germany. All arguments for EV’s pushed by the greens are based on a world that existed maybe 30/40 years ago. If it ever existed outside their minds. It certainly does not exist today. In the not too distant future the combined US/Europe automobile market will smaller than the Chine/India/ SE Asian countries. I have been hearing “we are running out of oil” argument since the mid 70’s. Its wrong. We have more oil than ever. And the “carbon emissions” argument is about as scientific as astrology and homeopathy. In fact the logic chain is exactly the same as homeopathy. And just as spurious. You really should read up on the history of Lysenkoism. Its exactly the same. With the same end results. Economic disaster.


#2082

Whoa Whoa hold your horses JMC

I don’t think I made any comment about the economy or how to generate electricity.

But I did say:

  1. If we all switch to EV’s there will be am immediate and tangible benefits to health, productivity, life expectancy from cleaner air in the city’s.

Even if that electricity is generated with fossil fuels we will get those immediate benefits as the smoke stack will not be where people live. It is also way more efficient to burn fossil fuels in one large plant and transport the electricity rather than have millions of little power plants driving around spewing out their inefficiently generated fumes and noise where people live.

  1. My major point which you chose to ignore was the massive subsidy fossil fuels get by everyone else picking up the tab for the harm to heath and the environment caused by burning those fuels.

Fossil powered cars get a much larger subsidy than EV’s, its disingenuous to say that they don’t when you ignore the waste problem.

I would be €600 a year richer if I could ignore the cost of disposing my garbage I’m not even sure what it costs to get ride of my sewage but you get the point. You cant claim EV’s get unfair subsidies while ignoring the massive subsidy and real economic costs of fossil powered cars that keep the cost at the pump low.


#2083

ireland would have to double the amount of electricty generated to keep 2 million EVs powered.

if you enjoy battery angst with your mobile phone, you’re going to to love it with your car. 5mins pumping petrol once a week into your car, instead of everyday.


#2084

I’m not even sure what point you are trying to make?

Are you saying we shouldn’t invest in electricity generation? or that electric cars will use too much electricity so we shouldn’t bother?

In the style of JMC: If like me you had actually talked to someone in ESB who’s job it is to plan this sort of thing you would know that the biggest headache for supply is new Data centers which require Jigga Watts of electricity just to run the servers, and they are popping up like mushrooms. The ESB inst even worried about the electricity required to power the average household driving of 35 km/day. It takes less than 1 hour to charge an EV for 35 km driving so it will have minimal impact on the grid. Your EV will be fully charged every morning. So again I don’t know what your second point is.

It takes more than 5 mins to refuel a fossil car.
Every morning you wake up your fossil car has less range (unlike the EV). At some point you get range anxiety and then you have to depart from your planned journey/commute, Go to a petrol station, pump then run the gauntlet of the crisps, bad coffee and great unwashed then and que up at the till pay etc then get back on your journey. 10-15 mins minimum to refuel more if you have kids.

I for one am looking forward to the day that I never have to go to a smelly petrol station again. There has never been an alternative (since horses) until now.


#2085

Is there any proof that working in a city means you are likely to die younger?


#2086

How many electric cars are there in Ireland right now?

ask your friends what would happen if everyone switched their toasters on at the same time!


#2087

All the toasters get turned on every workday morning. :angry: