Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?


#2205

So it’s not an entirely genuine statement then, should be qualified by the older proportion of ICE cars now on the road because EV sales are displacing sales?


#2206

I don’t see how EVs replacing sales makes any difference

A Nissan Leaf bought in 2012 is now producing less emissions in 2020 than it did the day it rolled off the forecourt, its emissions will continue to drop as the grid gets cleaner, every ICE bought in 2012 will see its emissions increase. And the same will be true of any EV or ICE bought in 2020


#2207

And you would have to assume EV battery packs become less efficient with age also.


#2208

Yes but it has been proven that the EV battery pack & electric motor are outlasting the ICE equivalent.
When the battery pack degrades it required less electricity to fully charge it.

It would be like having a shrinking fuel tank on an ICE vehicle, but unlike an ICE engine, EV’s don’t increase their pollution output as parts wear out.


#2209

That bit I highlighted in bold is quite the bold statement and I would say that couldn’t be a strictly correct scientific statement. Electric cars will have a battery, electric motor and various moving parts with friction that cause all sorts of energy losses and I would safely assume that the performance of all these parts deteriorate with age and that it takes more primary energy to have a 10 year old EV travel a kilometre than for the same EV when it was brand new. And by primary energy I mean the energy produced in whatever power plant that’s being used to generate the electricity used to charge the EV’s battery.

Of course having said all that I realise that EV’s cause far less pollution than ICE engined vehicles. I have never looked into the data but I assume that this is more clearly the case where the electricity required to charge the EV’s battery is partially coming from renewable sources and that the comparison takes into account electricity transmission losses from the power station to the home which can be considerable.


#2210

Friction, only if the owner does not maintain the drivetrain (top up the lubricant in the transmission), if anything friction reduces as parts get looser rather than increases.

Wheel bearings/UJ’s would get replaced when they wear out just the same as an ICE car.


#2211

You have ignored the performance degradation that’s bound to occur in electric motors and EV batteries. Not a huge degradation I would guess, but I wouldn’t predict it would be zero either so some extra pollution is bound to occur due to increased production required in the primary energy source to compensate, i.e. in the power station.


#2212

Battery degradation, simply means it can store less charge, so it stops charging up earlier thus taking less energy to get “fully charged”, if the motor degrades then it will simply draw less energy to provide a weaker force to the wheels, it’s not like a knackered ICE engine that produces as much smoke as traction.


#2213

No you can have real increasing losses in ageing electric motors and batteries, losses that produce increased internal heating, eddy currents, stray magnetism etc which are are all real efficiency losses.

Do you think that electric motors don’t degrade in performance (and hence energy consumption required to produce the same work output) over time? Stop the lights, entropy doesn’t increase after all , someone get Newton on the phone.


#2214

You were wrong Onioneater, just leave it at that, battery degradation doesn’t effect overall efficiency, it effects range


#2215

Motor degradation is insignificant relative to all other factors that cause a vehicle to wear out, unless the vehicle has had some severe abuse which causes the motor to overheat then you could damage the permanent magnets or cook the windings all of which would hasten an eventual catastrophic failure.

Under normal operating conditions, an old EV will simply have less range than it had when new.


#2216

Of course degradation effects battery range due to loss of capacity but are you going to argue that a battery will maintain its energy conversion efficiency ratio indefinitely as it ages? That would be a first for science and without looking up electric battery research I assume that this isn’t the case. That is the point I am making. I assume that such battery losses over time will be quite small and electric motors will also last for a very long time without a huge degradation in efficiency as long as used properly but do not tell me that their efficiency does not degrade over time. That would be a first in engineering history.


#2217

I just don’t think its really significant, for batteries or motors, my main point was as the grid gets cleaner, the emissions gap between EVs and ICE will only grow, 8.7% drop this year, looks like the Greens will be part of the Government, so the gap will grow


#2218

That’s fine I am not arguing EVs vs. ICE (although your optimism over the impact of the Greens may need to be tempered by the fact that oil and gas may be much cheaper as an worldwide energy source for a period now, hence redrawing the short to medium term economics of EV vs ICE).

I was simply making the point that electrical batteries and motors do have some performance degradation over time, even though it may be a good deal less than ICE engines suffer from, as they are also subject to the universal laws of science and engineering. I will take that point as accepted.


#2219

The Greens seem to really hate Natural Gas, they won’t allow any exploration for it, they also want to stop us building a LNG terminal, these are all bad ideas but the Greens don’t care, low oil/gas prices won’t stop them, its their religion


#2220

Policy driven by religion is never a good thing, but the policies on their own might bear scrutiny and pushing people to scarp ICE’s for EV’s that are in the main charged with electricity is a marginal gain at best even if you ignore the emissions from scrapping a car before it’s natural life and the early manufacture of an EV.

Generating electricity from natural gas puts sequestered co2 back into the atmosphere, this is inarguable. So lets stop pretending were saving the world by driving a Prius until wind, wave, solar or nuclear combined with storage is built out. Could the capital and resources allocated to the tarbert LNG be diverted to this? If yes then the ideologically driven greens are also rational and reasonable in their approach.

Of course geopolitical concerns might also exist. Security of supply as well, not much output from wind or solar on a cold winters night in January especially when air to water heat pumps are all the rage and you were denied permission to put a stove in your self build…


#2221

Elon Musk: Tesla raises cost of ‘self-driving’ cars,

Looks like he wants to maximise the profits from the self driving hardware & software now. Will be interesting if this turns people off paying the extra.

Tesla is raising the price of its “self-driving” option on its electric vehicles worldwide starting with a $1,000 (£820) hike.
Founder Elon Musk tweeted that the price “will continue to rise” as its technology improves.
But the entrepreneur said the technology it’s adding will be worth more than $100,000.
Mr Musk has been in a battle with officials in California over the restarting of Tesla’s US car assembly.
Tesla’s “full self-driving” (FSD) option is called Autopilot, although it isn’t fully autonomous. Autopilot has a number of features including automatic lane changes, parallel parking and a summon feature, which automatically parks and retrieves the car. Its upcoming features include automatic traffic light and stop sign control.
The self-driving option will cost $8,000 when the price rise kicks in on 1 July.


#2222

From this article and others it seems …

“Battery day” presentation knocked back a month or two.
Battery will last a million miles. That’s longer than the car will I’d imagine.
All cars will operate as a grid back up solution so both the car owner and Tesla will earn.
Old car batteries can be re-purposed for your house.
No more cobalt in batteries, so cheaper.
New battery manufacturing process, so cheaper.
Cars as cheap as ICE cars, will be made in China.


#2223

If this is a scam it’s a durable one:


#2224

Well its more of a business than boeing or uber and they are still around. Stockmarket valuations have long ceased to reflect reality.