Tesla - Pimping Elon's Ride?


#23

fool cells, always 10 years away, always

and in 10 years they will still be 10 years away

and what do you think the model S will be like in 10 years or the model 3 or the leaf

the only people who think hydrogen fuel cells have a future in transport are people who don’t understand the subject


#24

Fuels cells are always 10 years away - until they’re not.

And given that they are now in production (albeit not yet ready for the big time) I think the argument that they’re still ten years away is a bit lazy. You’re either extremely brave or extremely foolish to write them off so blithely.

That said, I think the 10-20 year horizon is looking really rosy for electric vehicles, especially if the fast charging issue can be addressed more completely.


#25

thenewatlantis.com/publications/the-hydrogen-hoax


#26

The idea that hydrogen is a fuel “source” is, as you say, total hogwash. I’ve never heard anyone even vaguely knowledgeable suggest that hydrogen will replace oil as a source of energy.

(I only skimmed the article, but from what I saw this is what it’s refuting?)

But batteries/electricity aren’t a “source” either - they’re both just methods of moving energy from one place to another or storing it.

Both have advantages and disadvantages (and in fact they’re very similar in a lot of ways - notably that you need another primary source of fuel). Which will ultimately win out is still up in the air, and in fact it might very well come down to regulations that favour one or the other, or some PR issue, rather than necessarily the pure technical merits.


#27

Well I think it’s safe to say that Apple is seriously investigating getting into the car biz. Whether that actually happens…

Musk, who’s been accused of poaching Apple employees in the past, now says that Apple has been offering signing bonuses of $250K and salary increases of 60% to some Tesla people. Plus another car battery maker has filed suit against Apple for poaching its employees.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/ … on-as-2020

nytimes.com/2015/02/20/techn … .html?_r=0


#28

Remove the ZEV money and other EBITA hand waving and Tesla’s 10-Q is pure 1999 dot.com. They are just currently putting lip-stick on the pig with the intention of selling it on to a bigger fool. You obviously dont know the back story of the PayPal cash out debacle. Ebay took a very big hit on that one. Musk has form.

ZEV sales in Cal are around .3% market share (and dropping) even though each vehicle gets a $35K / $45K tax payer subsidy. They are the car of choice among the Atherton set. Which is only right and proper that the ultra rich should have an exclusive car and their own lanes on the freeway. ZEV’s and hybrids get special HOV lane exemptions and make up pretty much all the (light) traffic in HOV lanes during rush hour traffic.

Then there are the kickbacks from the ZEV guys to the CARB board members. Those familiar with the CARB fiasco with MTBE know how cheap CARB board members are to buy. And given the current ZEV dynamics the current board is most definitely bought. MTBE was the biggest environmental pollution scandal in the last 30 years. At one stage the water table of almost 10% of the state was rendered undrinkable by contamination and all wells in several cities had to be sealed for a time.

But nary a peep about the story from the “investigative” press. Even though the chain of corruption was in plain sight and involved a Republican governor and a oil company schill on the CARB board. The reason there was no expose stories on the MTBE corruption scandal is because almost every other members of the board was equally bought by the various green factions. The press did not want to push over that particular hornets nest.

The simple fact is the green in “Green” is always the greenback. The greens lobby vie with the gambling lobby for being the most corrupt special interest group in the state.


#29

Does Tesla own any real, juicy patents ?


#30

teslamotors.com/blog/all-our … belong-you

Giving them away? Not quite juicy then.

A couple of years ago I read in interview with the head of Honda. His perspective on R&D in electric vehicles at the time was let others do the work and if it works, buy the use or reverse engineer it.


#31

Oh yummy! Do educate us and entertain us so, with the back story of the PayPal cash out debacle, with specific reference to the hit Ebay took, and to Musk’s form. Have at it.


#32

Tesla: Bonfire Of The Money Printers’ Vanities - -> davidstockmanscontracorner.com/t … -vanities/


#33

that was a loan that was paid back in full

this is just wrong

the imaginary gigafactory is being built now

Tesla shares are over valued but calling it a scam because of that is foolish, if the share price was lower then Apple may well have bought Tesla by now


#34

Stockman is a former US Budget Director and presumably a “smart guy”, but when you label yourself a contra, you’re forced to forage for material, often at the bottom of the barrel to justify the moniker, and sometimes, nay most times, the conventional wisdom is just right, simply because it’s conventional, which is a commodity you would expect budget directors should be familiar with.

Average cost of 2014 new car =$31.25K.
2014 total unit sales = 16.9M.
Total value of US new auto market = $525B.

US population is forecast to grow by 100M or 30% over the next 35 years. Presuming the auto market grows in tandem, the 2025 market should be worth $580B + inflation, say $600B.

If at that time Tesla has a 5% US share alone, (that’s maybe a bit high), at a 25% margin it will be throwing off GP of $7.25B a year just from the US auto biz, to say nothing of other countries, plus home/storage batteries etc. Might even double that. All of a sudden a $75B bid by Apple doesn’t look so crazy. Rather its Stockman who seems crazy.

Ford and GM typically post gross profit margins in the 10-15% range. Tesla has said from the beginning that it’s long term GP goal is in the 25% range, and has actually started to achieve that, see here.

ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/gross_profit_margin

See also:
my.teslamotors.com/fr_CA/forum/f … -1000-2020

Granted, it’s not dispositive, but it’s certainly not pie-in-the-sky either.


#35

I think Musk is great, and am amazed that he has managed to achieve concurrent success in extremely high-risk ventures such as rocketry and the electric car.
However, I do think that the odds of succeeding as a small player in the U.S. automotive industry are stacked against him. (Release a dud model, or even overestimate the popularity of a good model, and your company’s survival is at risk). I don’t think he wants Tesla to gain a substantial share of the market, he wants electric cars to gain a substantial share of the market. I think he would sell if the money was silly enough and he was satisfied the new owners could grow the company.


#36

Forgot to mention in my previous post that one reason Tesla achieves higher margins than Ford GM etc. is that it sells directly to the consumer, just like Apple, as opposed to the franchised dealer system used by the traditional auto companies. Higher percentage of revenue stays in house.


#37

are you sure?
carscoops.com/2015/01/toyota … money.html


#38

Tesla is five years ahead of the competitionand electrIf cars are exploding out of the gate from a very low base…due to excellent performance, lower costs,city pollution controls (look st France and China and shut up about California for once…). Most importantly climate change is here NOW…theUS and China even agree on this.
If climate change continues to accelerate…

There is also anothermassive disruption coming soon?.autonomous cars on demand’ which will be a massive incentive to not own a car…no insurance or parking or big’money’down nor even need to drive yourself!

france24.com/en/20141208-par … ationwide/

Auto industry is the next major area to be disrupted. There is a LOT of money to be made and lost.


#39

I don’t get it. What’s the relevance of this to Tesla?


#40

If oil prices stay low wouldn’t that inevitably bankrupt tesla?
In a nut shell, what are they bringing to the table that hasn’t been done before? Eg- electric motors are everywhere. Batteries are everywhere.


#41

Well as it seems you missed the last dot com bubble the short story is that the Sand Hill Boys organized the shotgun marriage once it became obvious that the 2000/2001 crash was not just a blip but a full scale bust. That after four years the pump and dump party was over. It was around the same time that the VC’s moved from an all upside income model to a hedgie 2/20 model (with all income coming from the 2…)

As EBay VC’s were part of the same informal VC deal circle jerk as the PayPal backers the deal got done even though most people thought the numbers were wrong. Depending on how you do the numbers EBay “lost” at least $2B on the deal over the next few years.

And so the merrie go round continues…

I notice you did not challenge me on the CARB corruption story and the rise of ZEV’s. Which is the only reason Tesla exists. It all one big crony capitalist fraud.


#42

For complicated machinery Dealer networks have proven themselves in many business areas to be the cheapest means of getting product to market often at the expense of the mug of a dealer.

The major manufacturers are expected to return dividends. There is no such expectation there for Tesla yet. They only make one model of car at present. People can project future potential profits for them which may never come a-la Amazon.

There is a Tesla parked about 200metres away from my office in our industrial estate and the big screen is certainly a wow factor but I don’t expect my first electric car will be anything other than a VW or a Renault or one of the other mainstream manufacturers which we are allowed to lease in our company car scheme.
Last Wednesday a meeting didn’t happen because a Colleague was having “car problems”. His car is a new BMW i3.
I was listening to my Colleagues discussing electric cars and how they are not suitable. They were talking about a journey that both of them would likely make from work to Karlsruhe to Heidelberg and back to work and how they’d run out of charge half-way through with some inconsiderate person most likely blocking a charging bay with an ICE car.
Both these Colleagues have the option to lease electric cars at highly discounted rates through our lease scheme but both these Colleagues and myself have all leased new ICE cars in the last few months; electric has a long way to go and it isn’t up to the trip yet.