That 40% drop - it's already happened

[verbatim]

That 40% drop - it’s already happened

irishtimes.com/newspaper/pro … 88804.html

Economists have predicted that house prices have to fall by at least 40 per cent from their peak of 2006 but house builders say that’s already a reality, writes JACK FAGAN

NEW HOMES agents have supported a claim by the Irish Housebuilders’ Association (IHBA) that selling prices for newly built houses and apartments have either bottomed out or are close to that stage in the price cycle.

Dominic Doheny, chairman of the IHBA, said earlier this week that prices across the country have dropped by an average of over 40 per cent and that the level of unsold stock was between 35,000 and 40,000. He said that there are 9,000 new homes overhanging the Dublin market – a figure well below other estimates which put unsold properties at 15,000.

Ken MacDonald of Hooke MacDonald said yesterday that judging by the magnitude of the price cuts and the increased number of enquiries and viewings in recent months, there was room for a guarded optimism that the market had bottomed out, particularly in Dublin. “There is now the expectation that we could see the start of a gradual return to an increase in sales activity in the early part of the new year.”

[sharper]

The only problem is some property has way more than 40% to fall. One bed apartments for example.

I’m not really expecting further drops next year, I think the next trigger will be rising interest rates feeding into more drops in 2011. I could be wrong of course but I think NAMA will relieve a lot of the pressure on developers (or at least make them think it has).

[spqr64]

That 40% drop - it’s already happened

irishtimes.com/newspaper/pro … 88804.html

Economists have predicted that house prices have to fall by at least 40 per cent from their peak of 2006 but house builders say that’s already a reality, writes JACK FAGAN

NEW HOMES agents have supported a claim by the Irish Housebuilders’ Association (IHBA) that selling prices for newly built houses and apartments have either bottomed out or are close to that stage in the price cycle.

Dominic Doheny, chairman of the IHBA, said earlier this week that prices across the country have dropped by an average of over 40 per cent and that the level of unsold stock was between 35,000 and 40,000. He said that there are 9,000 new homes overhanging the Dublin market – a figure well below other estimates which put unsold properties at 15,000.

Ken MacDonald of Hooke MacDonald said yesterday that judging by the magnitude of the price cuts and the increased number of enquiries and viewings in recent months, there was room for a guarded optimism that the market had bottomed out, particularly in Dublin. “There is now the expectation that we could see the start of a gradual return to an increase in sales activity in the early part of the new year.”

Ah thats grand, its good to hear a joke on a thrusday morning, it keeps you cheery for the long day ahead.

[BrendanG]

They seem to forget that Morgan Kelly was reported in the same paper as sayinr that in real terms prices could drop by 80%.

Even the opening sentance of the article states:

Economists have predicted that house prices have to fall by at least 40 per cent from their peak of 2006

which of course implies that the minimum fall should be 40%.

I’m also quite sure that it is average house prices which must fall by at least 40% so to be saying that:

selling prices for newly built houses and apartments have either bottomed out or are close to that stage in the price cycle.

is not true either.

[Pyramid5]

In other news ISABEL MORTON reports

Not surprisingly, the Permanent TSB house price index was unable to break down these figures into different categories due to the low sample size available. In other words, there were so few property sales that attempting to collate comparative statistics was pointless.

while the OECD

LIVING STANDARDS in Ireland are likely to remain “permanently lower”, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said yesterday in a new report on Ireland

and the Government

Severe Pain in the forthcoming Budget with more to follow

[Duplex]

Sherry FitzGerald is also selling one of the lowest priced one-bedroom apartments in the greater Dublin area, a well finished unit at Dunboyne Castle for €129,950, a drop of 54 per cent on the September 2006 price of €285,000.

daft.ie/1473383

That’s €266 per square foot. That’s supposed to represent value in Ireland according to the Irish Property Supplement.

In Germany your average flat is selling at €148 per square foot.

hypoport.com/hpx_mean_en.html

[sharper]

Is there any limit on what you can say is in “the greater Dublin area” without being laughed at?

[Duisigh]

No. { Sorry was that a serious question }

[daltonr]

Economists have predicted that house prices have to fall by at least 40 per cent from their peak of 2006 but house builders say that’s already a reality, writes JACK FAGAN

Hey Jack.

lmgtfy.com/?q=at+least

-Rd

[the_edge]

That’s €266 per square foot. That’s supposed to represent value in Ireland according to the Irish Property Supplement.

In Germany your average flat is selling at €148 per square foot.

hypoport.com/hpx_mean_en.html

The markets are not really comparable. Although, granted, I would not pay €130k for a 1 bed apartment in Meath.

[Ozzy]

Sherry FitzGerald is also selling one of the lowest priced one-bedroom apartments in the greater Dublin area

, a well finished unit at Dunboyne Castle for €129,950, a drop of 54 per cent on the September 2006 price of €285,000.
daft.ie/1473383

That’s €266 per square foot. That’s supposed to represent value in Ireland according to the Irish Property Supplement.

In Germany your average flat is selling at €148 per square foot.

hypoport.com/hpx_mean_en.html

Ir more likely at least €266 per square foot.

These particulars and prices are issued strictly on the understanding that they do not form part of any contract. Measurements are approximate and maps are not drawn to scale and in some cases the orientation has been rotated to fit page. **The builder reserves the right to make alterations to the design and specifications **in the interest of the overall quality of the development.

[The_Unwelcome_Guest]

That’s €266 per square foot. That’s supposed to represent value in Ireland according to the Irish Property Supplement.

In Germany your average flat is selling at €148 per square foot.

hypoport.com/hpx_mean_en.html

The markets are not comparable.

You’re right, a flat in a Germany is desirable.

A flat in Dunboyne is not.

[Ozzy]

That’s €266 per square foot. That’s supposed to represent value in Ireland according to the Irish Property Supplement.

In Germany your average flat is selling at €148 per square foot.

hypoport.com/hpx_mean_en.html

The markets are not comparable.

True, theirs is relatively sane.

[The_Naked_Chef]

That’s €266 per square foot. That’s supposed to represent value in Ireland according to the Irish Property Supplement.

In Germany your average flat is selling at €148 per square foot.

hypoport.com/hpx_mean_en.html

The markets are not comparable.True, theirs is relatively sane.

Whats wrong with the edge today?

[the_edge]

Got up way too early. Doesn’t suit me.

[yoganmahew]

Economists have predicted that house prices have to fall by at least 40 per cent from their peak of 2006 but house builders say that’s already a reality, writes JACK FAGAN

Hey Jack.

lmgtfy.com/?q=at+least

-Rd

Very droll. In a techie way

[Mark]

Transactions and inventory lead prices, and given transactions are still low and inventory is still high, prices have only one direction to go for the forseeable future and that is down.

[InForADime]

Transactions and inventory lead prices, and given transactions are still low and inventory is still high, prices have only one direction to go for the forseeable future and that is down.

And any other number of reasons you’d care to mention. Credit, interest rates, wages/disposable income, uncertainty, etc, etc, etc. None of which are in this article.

[daltonr]

I might be going crazy, but I’m nearly sure there was also an article a while back talking about expected drops of 30%
and how they had laready happened, so we must be at the bottom.

There might even have been yet another similar article marking the 15% or 20% milestone.

Shall we organize a pool for who can guess the date of the article talking about expected drops of 50% and
quotes from “experts” saying that they have already happened and we must be at the bottom.

I say Feb 2nd 2010

-Rd

[ewd3]

Shall we organize a pool for who can guess the date of the article talking about expected drops of 50% and
quotes from “experts” saying that they have already happened and we must be at the bottom.

I say Feb 2nd 2010

-Rd

I’m more interested in the first “we must demolish housing so we can build neew ones and get the building industry moving again article”