The AIB thread


#2004

My prime broker says it’s available to borrow. If I actually went to borrow it I’m not sure I could or what it’d cost but I’d imagine that you can short it.


#2005

That’s interesting Daveirl, so at least in theory it’s possible. I would have thought there would be no intersection between people who know enough about stock markets to be prepared to loan out AIB shares and people who don’t realize that there’s a certain price collapse on the way.

I think I’d prefer put options myself - but I don’t think they exist here?


#2006

well, so do I

AIB is not pricing as an “equity”; it is technically broken; I concur that “arb” spreads contracting can be painful and may not happen for x amount of time — which is why I didn’t posit this until the mooted float by the State was discussed; as anybody can see from my post back in June, the same was true of the AIB ADR, it had to close because the share was delisting, it was certain.

AIB is not “overvalued”, it is not pricing. Please see chart below, top segment is Revenue of AIB (green) vs. BOI (white) over last decade; bottom tier is Market Cap of AIB (green) versus BOI (white); it is currently pricing at five times the market cap; why? because it’s not pricing, it’s basically a random number bouncing around the 3c to 16c mark; now the catalyst for it pricing will be a State sale of shares at which point it will price again — where will that price be, well even if you’re SUPER bullish AIB then you might price it at BOI market cap; that would be an 80% drop in the stock from here. So if you want your “long” leg :slight_smile: then buy BOI and short AIB.

Again, this trade is possible because State are talking about selling; that is is the shift that causes the share to reprice as equity in AIB.


#2007

I think you have your green and whites reversed?


#2008

haha, what a tit I am,
yes, green & white are wrong way around :laughing:


#2009

irishtimes.com/business/sect … -1.1964895


#2010

thejournal.ie/aib-mortgage-r … 5-Oct2014/

I’ve been expecting a little heating up in the competition between banks again. It’s playing out a little slower than I expected though. PTSB last year, KBC a little earlier this year and now AIB.

Interestingly there is no 80% - 90% LTV. Was that always the case?


#2011

I suspect Ulster Bank will follow soon enough as they’re pushing the 3 year fixed at the minute.
Once they get enough of them out the door the variable should come down to meet it and likely drop lower again next year.

(BTW I’m guessing)


#2012

The AIB fixed rates are all lower than the SVR!

The 5 year fixed has had a massive 1.3% knocked off it to bring it to 3.9%

What do they know?? New entrants on the way with ludicrous rates?


#2013

Yeah very interested in people’s thoughts on this. Do they expect more round of cuts or what?

5 year fixed lower than revised variable seems unusual.


#2014

They must be expecting deep cuts. Fixed should in theory make the bank more money over the fixed periof than a variable would. The rates seem to suggest that even over the next two years they expect the variable to average less than 3.8%??


#2015

I’d love to know what they know (or think they know).

Regardless of whether I ultimately decide to fix (doubtful) at that rate - hopefully what they think they know pans out. An alot cheaper mortgage would be nice.

Between that, the recent budget, what’s suggested in the next and hopefully a pay rise on the way I’d like to do some serious damage in terms of overpaying the mortgage over next few years.


#2016

Where’s your green jersey? get out there and spend spend spend 8DD


#2017

Hi all

Looking for some help on this topic. Do I have a leg to stand on in any way here. If anyone has any information on this it really would be great.

I have signed and started a 3 year fixed with Haven at 4.2% as of the 7th October it seems. This is the draw down date by my solicitor. The sale did not actually complete until the 17th October. Of course I have not had any payments as of yet. Since 30th October they have now launched 3.8% rate which of course I WANT !!!

Is there any way I can avail of this rate considering I have not even paid my first mortgage payment yet ? e.g. cooling off period or ANYTHING else…

Thanks for the help


#2018

99.9% no.
But worth calling them regardless.


#2019

So really what you want is a rate that is variable, but only downwards?


#2020

Doesn’t everyone? :laughing:


#2021

Reminds me a whole lot of moral hazard. People making a bet but want out if they don’t win.


#2022

Get your solicitor to check the small print. Maybe there is a cooling off period? Might be some admin fees though even were you able to cancel it.


#2023

AIB mortgage scheme sees 1,300 long-term resolutions

rte.ie/news/2014/1104/656729-mortgages-aib/