The AIB thread


#2084

Never underestimate an Irish canny.


#2085

Do it. If you’re canny you’ll invest your entire pension into it. Safe as houses.


#2086

Seems to be right - a standard PRSA fund holding a lot of ISEQ funds doesn’t seem to include it anyway.

irishlife.ie/investments/fu … erformance

See Indexed Irish equity and look at the fund holing %'s.


#2087

the only ETF I can find is based on the ISE 20 which doesn’t include AIB - a proper index would tax account of the minuscule free float and would probably be net sellers if anything given historical holdings)


#2088

Maybe this is the reason why

It’s official: one in two of us are bad at maths
Global survey finds just 55%of Irish adults are financially literate compared with 71% in the Nordic countries

irishtimes.com/business/fina … -1.2440788


#2089

There was a frightening statistic on the BBC News “Breakfast” program the other day. It was initially presented as “one in five people don’t know their bank balance”. I actually thought it sounded pretty encouraging – four in five people must be checking their balance regularly. Then when they got to the meat of the story, it turned out that one in five people shown a copy of their own bank statement couldn’t identify which figure on it was the balance.
XX

bbc.com/news/uk-23548745 (Previous survey)


#2090

:open_mouth: :astonished: :laughing:


#2091

So many dumbasses for such a small country


#2092

I never said that. I am of course suggesting AIB would be a good investment AFTER the share consolidation, and it goes without saying, only as part of a balanced portfolio. It’s well capitalized, the toxic waste has been cleaned out, margins are creeping up. Just like the recapitalization of Bank of Ireland, the government will not want to botch this. Ireland’s reputation is on the line, so you can be sure AIB will only be sold once the damage has been repaired and it won’t need to go back cap in hand to the government. I find it amusing that hundred of pages of thread were written here talking about whether Irish banks shares would be worth investing in or not (until now, I would have said no for AIB). We’re now at the stage where AIB looks in decent shape and no one cares.

Naturally, you pay your money, you take your chances.


#2093

Short of changing almost every manager at almost every level, I think you’ll find it’s still run by idiots…


#2094

It doesn’t matter if you’ve idiots running the bank, they’ll still be able to squeeze 1b+ a year in profits out of customers. These banks have always had as Morgan Kelly put it being run by “faintly dim former rugby players”

Banks live in the grey area between public and private sector, connecting the CB to your bank account. Generally they expect best of both worlds, high pay, great pensions, high job security. They’re in a protected sector with massive entry costs, they’re not going to lose their business because someone else is smarter or can make a competing product far more cheaply.

A 10B+ value would be reasonable given profit expectations (still last time I looked over that value, 20B+). If the the company fell to 5B before the share rejigging then I’d buy as many shares as I could.


#2095

Yep. The whole mess has actually simplified the AIB investment completely. They sold off the Bulgarian bank that they owned, the American investment is gone, the really toxic part of the loan book is in NAMA now. What’s left is exposure to the Ireland/UK economy - not a bad thing at all given that asset prices have stabilized. With most of the foreign banks out of Ireland, competition is much lower, there won’t be anyone with an appetite to undercut them. You’ve also got all the Irish banks now charging fees for banking services, that’s a nice little cash cow that they didn’t have for years. With regard to risk, all eyes are now on AIB - they won’t be going crazy growing the loan book (I am sure at some stage well into the future the lessons will be forgotten), so I would expect we will return to the model that we saw for AIB in the 90’s where it had decent if unspectacular growth.


#2096

the fact that they used all their exceptions to the Central Bank mortgage rules by Q3 would suggest the lessons have been forgotten already.


#2097

What percentage of their current loan book by value is in arrears?


#2098

group.aib.ie/content/dam/aib/in … sation.pdf

At this stage most of the banks are over provided and big portions of their profits are going to be reversals/write back of provisions.


#2099

Thanks for the link. Where does it show the amount of the loan book that’s impaired though? I can’t see it.


#2100

Disagree. In the medium term, maybe 5 years, fintech will disintermediate them.


#2101

16bn 2nd last bullet point at top of front page


#2102

impossible with current relationship between banks and central banks…

remember, banks create money ex nihilo (the idea that a loan is funded by another’s deposit being nonsense, the loan creates the deposit)…

certainly will be interesting to see what happens though — I think e-money on a card that is credited by the central bank or government is an eventual certainty ---- that would crush the traditional banks


#2103

I agree with Daniel :open_mouth:

While Paypal, venmo etc are increasingly using incentive’s for customers to use “in account” cash they are not quick to provide meaningful credit lines, this is essentially an arb strategy with paypal about to clip a rate on customer “account deposits”.
An alternative to the credit/debit accounting system (Dan’s ex nihilo loans) is key to replacing mainstream banking. I haven’t seen anything reputable yet to challenge this.