The AIB thread


#2104

AIB and BoI have been around in some shape or form since the 19th century.

That makes them older than 99.99% of other Irish enterprises and indeed the institutions of the state that (part)-owns them.

They will remain profitable because they are the incumbents in a small market with huge barriers to entry.

I’ve been a customer since AIB gave me £20 a month for three months as a student for keeping my balance above zero.

The only thing that AIB have done with technology is online banking, which actually has a very good user interface and functionality by retail standards.

Their core business of hoarding the cash of the frugal elderly and lending to reckless youth is unchanged. As long as people need savings and loans then AIB will be round and making a profit doing it.


#2105

I see it thanks. So 30.7% of their loan portfolio is impaired (and presumably provided for).

Does this sound like a reasonable amount?


#2106

Anyone else having issues with AIB international payments? I have two suppliers (one Eurozone, one not) who have not received payments this week. AIB are feigning innocence.


#2107

AIB fail the ECB bank stress test.

4-traders.com/ALLIED-IRISH-B … -22782676/


#2108

Never a good sign when your bank is mentioned in a sentence that starts “Like Monte dei Paschi…”


#2109

:laughing: :laughing:


#2110

I believe that redeeming the cocos last week increases the post stress Tier1 position by 300bps so this stress test is somewhat backward looking for AIB. Still will probably push the float out another year or so from an already delayed date. 2019 now?


#2111

Unsurprisingly, the bank stress tests have found that weak rescued banks end up as weak banks. They would be better broken up and sold off in pieces. The japanese lesson is that the long-term damage of zombie banks far outweighs the short-term damage of resolving failed banks.


#2112

How would you ‘break up’ Irish banks? By function? Or geographically?

Who would you sell the pieces to?

What would it achieve?


#2113

Not now, clearly, but in, erm, 2008/9 whenever it was, that NAMA/recapitalisation was made to happen. By the way, it is mostly the ECB I am giving out to. They are the CB that matters in setting the boundaries of possible in the eurozone.


#2114

Looking for 150 voluntary redundancies.


#2115

I wonder how it will compare to the Public Service cap:

"It has been agreed on behalf of the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform and the
Public Services Committee of ICTU that the following will apply, with effect from 1 June
2012, on the redundancy of a public servant as defined under the Financial Emergency
Measures in the Public Interest Acts 2009 – 20112
or group or class of public servants

o Any ex gratia payment will amount to no more than 3 weeks pay per year of
service, subject to the total statutory redundancy and ex gratia payment not
exceeding either 2 years’ pay or one half of the salary payable to preserved
pension age, whichever is less;

o In accordance with the provisions in the Redundancy Payments Acts 1967 -
2007, public servants in employment for less than 2 years [104 weeks] are not
eligible for a severance payment (statutory or ex gratia); "


#2116

Draghi and Trump unlikely allies for Noonan’s AIB IPO - -> irishtimes.com/business/fina … -1.2873996

State’s AIB share sale moves closer with advisory move - -> irishtimes.com/business/fina … -1.2872377

New rules to drive up house prices: AIB boss - -> independent.ie/irish-news/ne … 43988.html

‘Overcorrection’ in house prices since financial crash - -> irishtimes.com/business/fina … -1.2863210


#2117

AIB capable of paying “conservative” ongoing state dividend-CFO - -> reuters.com/article/aib-divi … SS8N1CA005

State to write down value of AIB as share price slumps - -> businesspost.ie/news/state- … mps-370288

AIB gearing up to sell toxic investment property loans - -> businesspost.ie/business/ai … ans-368775

AIB draws up large compensation deal - -> thetimes.co.uk/article/aib-d … -s60mbjm9v


#2118

It’s just dawned on me that, in the event of the Euro disintegrating, we can forgo creating a punt nua in favour of using AIB shares as legal tender.


#2119

Banks will be more aggressive towards defaulters, says Investec - -> irishtimes.com/business/fina … -1.2924233

Noonan may have to lower asking price for AIB shares as he weighs up sale options - -> independent.ie/business/noon … 87219.html

AIB makes it back to investment grade for first time since 2010 - -> irishtimes.com/business/fina … -1.2936330

AIB plans to purge €1.8bn in non-performing loans - -> irishtimes.com/business/comp … -1.2955673

AIB pursues Dublin solicitor over €4.7m loan - -> irishtimes.com/business/comm … -1.2939275

Goldman Sachs and AIB team up for Glen of Downs Golf Club sale - -> irishtimes.com/business/tran … -1.2954220


#2120

Meet Kate and Mick, that couple who’ve paid off their mortgage at last - -> irishtimes.com/life-and-styl … -1.2984027

I am wondering about that advertising campaign, most mortgage ads feature young couples so its out of place, then I see this article in the business post and it starts to make sense.

AIB plan to sell off thousands of home mortgages - [subscription] -> businesspost.ie/news/reveal … ges-380525

Significant blow for mortgage holders: low tracker rates to rise - -> independent.ie/business/pers … 78118.html

Irish market is highly at risk from mortgage rate rises - Boucher - -> independent.ie/business/pers … 81295.html


#2121

From that article:

The EU is all about Germany.
If they begin to recover, but Italy & France lag, then we’re going to see some tremendous domestic pressures when interest rates begin to tick upwards.


#2122

Maybe, but interest rates going up would be in line with what would make sense for the Irish market.

The Bank quotes/comments in that article are weird: all “we’re vulnerable to rate increases” “but of course we’re prepared for them”, “but it would be bad if they went up”, “but no, of course, we’re set for that”, etc., Also, typically, it is not at all clear what is denoted by “the market” in the remarks.


#2123

I wonder is the Irish market highly at risk from mortgage rate rises because the banks did not give people any wriggle room in restructures and so have set themselves up for a crisis? Or maybe they are worried that they themselves will have to absorb part of a rate increase in their variable rates if rates increase?

Banks commenting that Ireland is at risk from rate increases is bizarre when the banks have been pushing very high margins on people with their variable rates. Also, all banks have been calling for an increase of rates to stop them losing money on deposits.

Bottom line - the banks are amoral and mercenary and are not to be trusted (and never were to be trusted). All their pronouncements should be treated with heavy scepticism.