Scare yourself a little further.
What proportion of the population has no debt at all? Some (many?) 'pinsters, a few people I know (in my small circle). Maybe a third of the population?
Your 1.58 has just become 2 euro for those who are in debt.
I know very few people who are debt free, I am lucky enough to be in a position to clear any small borrowing I have from funds available to me on deposit. I know quite a lot of people who are up to their neck in debt as a result of reckless spending and see more through work very regularly. I am constantly surprised by how much debt people can rack up buying needless junk and holidays and they will only stop when the card is refused (I think the banks know this to some degree and are waitng on the hard landing from this as well).
I also used to think that the majority of people who are debt free and money in the bank would be the retired variety and it sstill true but have found very often even these people have taken on debt to sponsor gift deposits for property or signed on the dotted line as guarantor only to find their kids have lost the job or interest rate re-sets are forcing them to subsidise further the ill-advised purchase of a shoebox 3 or 4 years ago.
So there is I dont think anyone portion of society free from debt just various shades of red running through all areas.
From recently published FT data, Ireland inflation adjusted new home prices with projections based on inflation adjusted corrections in Japan and the UK. Interesting how the UK bubble came back so soon. DOnie Cassidys prediction seems hopeful.
Think I have to agree with Cactus Flower when he said
Some US multinationals pull out. Not all.
Unemployment of 10-15% could easily happen. I tend to agree with Kerrynorth on the 15%.
Not 100% convinced on emmigration matching the 1950s levels as today you need a green card or qualifications and experience to go to those places. Europe - Im not sure, the language barrier, we will see how mobile the Irish are. But 1980s levels could be seen.
Population, as per 2Packs predictions a long long long time ago, of sub 4 million. Some disagreed with him at the time. Seems like a natural progression now.
And my pet problem - PENSIONS
dear God our pensions…
We will get booted out of the EU soon. According to the Sunday paper (Indo I think), Brian wants to borrow bunches of money to shore up the economy, far more than the EU would like. This coupled with Lisbon ‘No’ vote surely must mean the boot from Brussels?
Remember, that all Ireland has left is Tourism/Agriculture/Foreign firms.
There is no process for booting us out, all attempts by any group, even if it had the undivided support from all other states, would be illegal. They’re stuck with us for as long as we want them to be, with one exception:
they could, if they wanted to, each withdraw from the EU en masse, then set up a new EU sans us, leaving only us out.
That, I think, would require an incredible amount of trust between the other members. If one of them broke ranks…
End of the day, most Eurozone governments will borrow many multiples of what we will. The borrowing of the city of Paris will interest them far more than our deeds.
Interesting that the “hope” is that things in Ireland only get as bad as has been seen following down turns in the established, diverse, significantly larger and stronger economies of the UK or Japan.
By many metrics, Ireland is only a step away from being a third world country, not a world economic power like Japan or the UK.
They could withdraw from the EU and set up EUv2 in a single piece of legislation which was only active when they all (excluding Ireland) passed it. Then again, they might take the chance to drop-kick the UK while they’re at it
Maybe they’d allow them (and maybe us) back in with much less influence than before, after a while, when lisbon and more are done and dusted.
Since the bill has been passed:
Best and Worst Case Secnarios for the Govt Guarantee?
Ruination of the nation?
What scares me is how little comprehension people have of the figures involved. I understand that the state has been put on the line (like going all in in poker with a strong but not perfect hand) and feel I have a good handle on the potential costs. Talk to people about worst case scenarios though and they start asking questions like “do you think it’ll mean an increase in income tax” or “we’ll be paying increased bank charges”. Worst case scenario and income tax doubles and the IMF is called in.
On the positive side, it makes the budget deficit look tiny.
Worst case scenario:
Regulator, Banks and Govt believe their own spin that its not our fault
End result: Ireland set back for 15-20 years.
IMF comes in.
Ireland gets kicked out of Europe.
Unemployment are stratospheric levels.
Population decrease and emigration.
Pensions - forget them.
The fact that this is a realistic scenario is deeply disturbing
The IMF is the only unrealistic part…
Best Case scenario:
Europe bails us out.
Ireland culls bad bank execs, regulators. Improves banking practices, political ties get investigated.
Ireland gets on track to sorting out its other economic problems.
how about “Bono meets world leaders in bid to slash Irelands debt”
How about a tax on Irish citizens…
Was talking to a Finnish colleague at work about his experiences from their bubble.
Said things were pretty normal for quite a while but by the time unemployment hit 20% it was just misery.
Shops with empty shelves and massive queues for bread each day.
Thankfully, we’ve had no bubble and our banks are ok.
I’d be worried otherwise