Not if we get kicked out of Europe
Time to update our best and worst case scenarios now!
Default after a failure to rectify the deficit
Im changing my worst case scenario unemployment rate from 10-15% to a 25% government figure at peak to come in the event of default. Seeing as we are at 12%+ our previous estimates were not bad at all.
Some multinationals leave
Unstoppable bank failures
25%+ still Vote FF
Alternative worst case scenario I now have two competing scenarios for worst place
Cuts are made in budget but not the entire amount.
Deficit increases over the years
Unemployment peaking somewhere 15-20%
Harmonization of EU taxes as part of an EU bailout
Some but multinationals leave
Best Case Scenario
Default now(see above for drawbacks ) or
Massive budget cuts 8 billion+ this year or cull almost all quangos 20 billion +
Revolution…but by a group of people who come from different places on the political spectrum and are united only in their hatred of corruption. Some of these wonderful people …cough cough… then go on to form the basis of the new political system forming their own parties.
However, because of their friendly relationships they soon become just as rotten as the previous crowd and go on to be themselves culled
With the greatest amount of respect. Do you actually think that is likely to happen or you think the government simply want you think thats going to happen?
My belief is that the government is drumming up negative sentiment. FF don’t care if people are pissed off with them. They simply want people to leave Ireland. The unemployed, recent graduates, the disgruntled. 200 or 300 hundred thousand liabilities off their balance sheets if possible. Good old 1980’s subversion via the media.
Thinking about the worst case scenario has been distracting me constantly for the last few months, to the detriment of my daily work. It has been, for me, the realisation of the apocryphal Chinese proverb, “May you live in Interesting times.”
My stomach has been rolling, trying to figure what the options are for us, and I don’t mean Irish people, I mean, all of us.
And my thoughts have been leaning in an apocalyptic direction. In his book, Collapse: How societies choose to fail or survive, Jared Diamond outlines the results of resource exhaustion and overpopulation on a series of isolated societies through history. Most disappeared remarkably quickly.
When you look at almost every aspect of modern society, we are doing things fatally wrong.
The markets which we are most concerned with, the US and UK, are self-destructing. Keeping an eye on the business news every day does nothing but instil and renew a sense of fearful anticipation, for the coming crash. I think it almost goes without saying, the money will run out, and there will be a reckoning. These things are never pleasant, and the corrections we have coming in our direction - in the direction of the western world - are not going to be pleasant. And the correction doesn’t just refer to simple economic markers like the Dow or the Hang Seng.
I don’t think this will have a fallout limited to the western world, either. The other sides of the economic coin have been mimicking our “successful” model for the last forty years, and are “slouching toward bethlehem” in our company.
I don’t want to be the dark pessimist, sitting in the corner, but I really fail to see any chinks of light. The American response to the crisis has been to dig a larger hole, a much larger hole than has been dug by any economy since Lloyd’s first set up a coffee house in London, and modern economies began to emerge. Likewise Britain, and the ECB has been fluttering around, approving weakly of profanities like NAMA. We are not the only economy sitting on a bomb with a smouldering fuse. Greece, Spain, Italy, all of the Southern Baltic region, and the UK; all of these countries have much to fear in the coming years, and there are surely many candidates absent from my list because of my ignorance, not because they have healthier economies than those I have included.
Resources and Famines:
This might seem somewhat off topic for a website concerned with the irish property market, but topics here have been wideranging enough in the past, and world events will certainly have an enormous effect on our market too.
When I observe the waste of resources occurring all over the planet, and the accelerating development of this wastage, it rings a big bell in my head, a bell installed after the reading of Mr Diamond’s book, and others on similar subjects. There will be an enforced correction of the way we live, the way we heat our houses, the way we fly our lettuce from Israel, and import drinking water from France and Fiji. It would be nice to think that this could last forever, but it cannot. Make a simple extrapolation of our usage of resources, and our growth of population, and it is rapidly becomes clear that we are not going to be able to stay on this path. An infrastructure is hard to build, easy to take for granted, and very easy to destroy. But very very difficult to replace from smoking ruins. Which leads me to my next thoughts.
The traditional response to situations like this was a good old war, cull the population, steal the resources of another country, and thus stave off the collapse for a little while. Or lose the war, and have them take the resources. Either way, someone won, the pressure is released.
The little wars going on now are minor skirmishes relative to those in the first half of the 20th century, and yet they are stretching the might of the American military to breaking point. In the event of a major conflict, what could they be reasonably expected to do? Withdraw back to their own shores, and turn off the radios perhaps? But where would they source the commodities they have been gorging on since the turn of the last century? Or would they have to resort to threats of a less conventional type of warfare?
And what then?
Science is feted as being our saviour, and it would be. If scientists had any power. The scientific method applied to the world’s problems would solve them in a matter of decades. If every nation in the world ceded power to these fictional scientists, absolute power, and if they could be trusted with that power. And if there were enough scientists in the world.
Nations will not cede one iota of power.
Scientists could not be trusted with that power.
And there are nowhere near enough candidates to take the reins away from the blind deaf drivers of the world’s governments and economies.
There has to be some enormously disruptive event, like the discovery of a new clean energy source, or the arrival of sentient computers, Ray Kurzweil’s Singularity event. Without that, we are racing ever faster into the jaws of oblivion. We need an external factor to save us from ourselves, because we have proven again, and again to be incapable of saving ourselves.
If this doesn’t happen, we are doomed, and I mean in our lifetimes.
This a set of loosely connected statements, which could be referred to as expressions of some form of insanity, but which I really can’t get out of my head. I feel like i am sitting in the front seat of a car, heading for a high speed impact, and can do nothing about it.
I apologise for the darkness of my contribution to this thread, and I hope to goodness that I am wrong, and in fact, I would love to have any of what I have said here disagreed with in a way that would make it plain that I am in fact, in the throes of a mid life crisis, and couldn’t be less correct.
Brilliant post, I too am that scaredy cat sitting in the corner.
It’s going to end badly and by badly I mean really badly.
Thanks for such an eloquent post.
It could be Fatman that you’re a natural bear who’s picking up too many of the spoon fed bad vibes coming the Irish Truth Ministry. I’ve got that bad feeling in my gut too but I know it’s because I know too many people who would crush other people if it saved their precious properties.
here’s something to think about;
“Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us. We ask ourselves, Who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented, fabulous? Actually, who are you not to be? You are a child of God. Your playing small does not serve the world. There is nothing enlightened about shrinking so that other people won’t feel insecure around you. We are all meant to shine, as children do. We were born to make manifest the glory of God that is within us. It’s not just in some of us; it’s in everyone. And as we let our own light shine, we unconsciously give other people permission to do the same. As we are liberated from our own fear, our presence automatically liberates others.”
Perhaps that thing we fear is our ability, desire, and need to change things for the better, the fear that whatever changes we bring could actually be worse. It has only been through the anonymity of this site that I have felt change is posible, but I know that for change to be real, it must be done in the open, in the light.
Evil triumphs when good people do nothing. We’re going to need more good people.
What u said.
I battle every day with the Doomside of the force…
Sorry, Catbear, but this feelgood hocus pocus is straight out of the Women Are From Venus self help manual for better airy fairies -are the problems of this country not ENTIRELY due to too many people believing they are powerful beyond measure (sure, go ahead, borrow another 500k…you’re worth it!), too many people eager to shine regardless of the cost, or at least to have shiny new houses, shiny new cars, shiny new lives?
Liberation from fear is NOT a good thing if the fear is completely justified.
And if you don’t believe me, go ask any number of people who overcame their fear of borrowing too much…and now are mired in debts some of them will NEVER pay off.
Catbears quote referes to people not being afraid to simply hide within the crowd. IMO the Tiger years, despite the Hype, were all about conformity and fitting in. I would suggest it was a fear of being left behind by the crowd that fuelled much of the borrowing and bingeing which went on, which was then ploughed into identical products, each of which claimed to be unique.
A bit like the current political system…
America could win all those little wars in the morning at the touch of a button except it wouldn’t ‘look’ good.
They are not stretched, they are engaged in a rather bad military operated, politically controlled PR exercise.
Bombing a country into oblivion is not winning a war. Winning a war involves the complete subjugation of the enemy, and the admission from your opponents that the war is ended, with you being declared the victor.
This cannot be achieved at the touch of a button, and cannot be achieved using the strategies employed by the “coalition of the willing,” either in the theatres of conflict in Afghanistan and Iraq, or in the greater conflict in which they have found themselves engaged, the laughably named “war on terror.” It could be argued that the last shooting war with the US on the side of the victors, was World War II.
Tell it to the good people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Irony of the username not lost on anyone, I take it!
World War 2 was won with atomic weaponry.
Everything since then was just skirmishes.
We can’t have another proper war, without making the planet uninhabitable for human life. Which is probably a good thing.
edit/beaten damn you TUG
The war was won by more conventional means, the atomic weapons were pointless hammerblows, perhaps saving a sizeable number of American lives, but not really changing the by then inevitable outcome of the war. It was bullets won it.
But in your statement that “we can’t have another proper war,” you are entirely correct.
So, maybe a brighter outlook is necessary, as catbear has proposed.
This is as deranged as entertaining conjectures of a dystopian near future, but somewhat more reassuring.
A German scientist has a theory that the LHC is failing to succeed because if it does, it will destroy the earth and everyone on it, and is therefore plagued with bad luck. Thus, following this logic, you could guess that not only are we not going to have a global meltdown, we are in fact going to have some pseudo-miraculous near escape, because the more people surviving to people a given highly populated future earth, the more likely they are to have a past.
Based on this logic, and not wanting to continue in this pessimistic vein, I thus predict a gamechanging advance, presumably in the field of computer science, with ramifications for all human endeavours.
Now, isn’t that a slightly more heartening statement? (Although, somewhat bipolar in nature, bearing in mind my previous post)
The film of Cormac McCarthys book The Road is out soon, at least we know what to look forward to.
**Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for potential ‘global collapse’ **
Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible “global economic collapse” over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction.
AEP, nuff said.
The more I read the famous Mises quote (in the comments to the above article), the more chilling it gets:
"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.
LUDWIG VON MISES "
Von Mises, nuff said.
When I saw the SocGen in the headline, I was expecting to be able to say “Albert Edwards, nuff said”, but it is not he. I wouldn’t necessarily shoot the messenger on this one. SocGen are the biggest recipients of AIG payouts having hedged their risk and they seem to be on the ball so far (past performance…).