The Best and Worst Case Scenarios - Your predictions here


#61

For you maybe.


#62

Didn’t they lose 7bn with that trader.

Either way, they produced three scenarios and AEP has editorialised appropriately.

And @wttw, definitely.


#63

Here is the Soc Gen report

scribd.com/doc/22756491/SocGen-Worst-Case-Debt-Scenario

Lots of scary chart porn


#64

Absolutely worst case scenario is being played out right now.
Current best case scenario at this point is the ECB and Feb printing money and creating enough inflation so that we can pull off the bank and mortgage holder bailout.

Second best scenario at this stage would be a sovereign default

Worst case scenario would be stagnation for the next 10 years not going bankrupt just always on the edge.

Of course whether you believe we need to learn harsh lessons or not means you could swap the places of best and 2nd best scenarios. The danger is we could not learn a thing. Clearly 99% havent learnt a thing.


#65

columbia.edu/~xs23/papers/pd … _VX3.2.pdf

Best case scenario - Developing countries grow and create new markets for western services. Somewhere we can invest our money in for retirement with real returns…we can hope!


#66

New Worst Case scenario :slight_smile:
I am gonna do my absolute worst here :smiley:

Ireland refuses to pay debts…Expelled from EU & EMU
Trade Embargo
UK adopts low corporation tax and multinationals leave
New currency worthless
Irish Assets frozen
jobs non existent

now for the twist…
UK hands back 6 counties and violence restarts


#67

Finally Ireland is nuked by Credit Suisse subs pour encourager les autres.


#68

Finally finally, oil is discovered in Dublin bay and things are looking up for once. Over-enthusiastic horizontal drilling unzips Ireland from the continental shelf and it slips under the waves en route to the abyssal plain.