Keenan you can’t be allowed to get away with writing such lurid pornography.
You should be ashamed of yourself trying to con the uninformed into buying in a crashing property market.
1 ) Keenan offers a Table with property supply for the year of 2007. His first argument is that supply is tightening based on this table. During peak selling season supply is 4550 for Dublin. Then in December supply drops to 3954.
Keenan. Most sellers will not go to the expense of advertising their homes in December as the market shuts down for Xmas. Why don’t you point this out? This in effect makes your first conclusion absolute rubbish at best, lies at worst.
2 ) Keenan points out that EAs have told him appointments increased after the budget. He doesn’t qualify this with figures nor does he see the need to have proof considering it is in the EAs interest to convince people that the market is improving. Without backing of hard evidence his point here is absolute rubbish at best.
3 ) He says letting figures show rents are continuing to rise. We have plenty of proof on the pin to counter that claim. Once again he doesn’t qualify his claim with any facts so he could be talking about last years rents in which case he may be right. However, we at the pin are ahead of the curve and we, unlike Keenan offer proof. Also have a look at our friends over at treesdontgrowtothesky.com/. These guys now compile a rental drops and rises list along with the Pins Verbatim.
4 ) Keenan the genius points out that
“The law of supply and demand tells us that when supply gets tight, prices go up. And when prices have been falling as they have, scarcity can arrest the downward price trend”
Now he uses this to say the December supply shortage will “arrest the downward price trend”. Very clever. He is correct for the supply part but he fails to realise that the demand part of the law is also of some importance. Since demand in December drops will negate the supply effect Mr Keenan really starts to look stupid.
5 ) Keenan interviews no neutral parties for his column. He does talk to Paul Murgatroyd of The EA Douglas Newman Good. They say
“Stronger rents have encouraged them to put their homes into short lets of six months to a year, with the idea of comming back to the market at a later date. The fact that that the supply of rental property has increased in the same period would also back this up”
Keenan’s job here would be to rip this silly statement apart. He doesn’t so I will.
Using Keenan’s law of supply and demand, as more and more unsaleable properties are added to the already busting rental supply we know that high rents will get no tenants and rents will have to decrease. As rents fall current tenants will find it harder and harder to justify paying their rents which were agreed before the bloated supply. So naturally they will demand a reduction in their rents or they will move to a similar property with lower rent. Rents will continue dropping until supply equals demand. this means some of these new LL will have to withdraw their property from the rental market and put it back up for sale. Now the kick in the teeth here is the fact that it will probably take the seller 6 months to face the hard truths and by that stage they will have lost 6 months rent and the price they could have got for their property (although significantly lower than their expectation) 6 months ago will be significantly lower that what they will get when they do capitulate and sell.
Now lets be fair. We need to sympathize with the seller. They aren’t bad guys. They, naturally just want the best price for their property. Their loss due to bad information can be attributed to the ill informed or deceitful public commentators.
6 ) There is more rubbish but I’ll end it here. Maybe someone else can lift the torch.
Finally. Keenan ends with
“But in their absence I think 2008 will mark the turn in the market and we can anticipate a return to slight growth by the end of the year”
In order to say this Keenan must have a supernatural ability to ignore all economic happenings both in this country, in the countries of our main trading partners and the general imbalances in the world. He also puts himself forward as a smarter man than most top investment bank economists, the gentlemen of the ECB, Mr Alan Greenspan, not to mention our resident Pin economists.
In one foul stroke Keenan has truly joined Desperate Dan, Comical Austin, and Laughable Liz. Welcome on board Mark.