The coming productivity boom


Yep and office365 seems determined to synch every action I take and wait for a response before letting me continue locally. Exchange was much better IMO, as the synch all happened in the background. Outlook has been rewritten as an app, with all the single-threaded, screen-hogging poxiness of apps (don’t get me started on focus hogging :frowning: Yes, I’m looking at you, Webex…).


If you watch any of the above then watch the last one

#43 … study-says

remember this … ion-soars/

or this

This month: … ial-robots



And in 2200, the population of Japan will be 0.
God I hate these extrapolations.
For the record, I predict a rise in Japanese families.
In 30 years time you’ll see the headline ‘‘If only in invested in Japan’’.


Demographics are destiny…


This could of been posted in many threads, its from Australia but relevant to many Western countries: … wtr20.html

The west is run by either idiots or people who actually WANT us to run living standards down to 3rd world levels in order to compete. If competing with 3rd world labour isn’t enough then how about competing with even cheaper robots that don’t have mortgages or grocery bills. But the solution from this genius is to ask for a wage increase! how out of touch are these guys?


And demographers are wankers. These would be the same demographers that had Ireland’s population at 8 million by 2020 with 4 million of them in the Dublin Belfast corridor? Hence justifying 70k units a year? And meanwhile the economists sat on the sidelines on their hands humming “it could happen”…


All that tells me is that Ireland needs better demographers, which is hardly surprising given the facts of the last century.


Perhaps Japan does too given the bubble they had in the 'eighties?



Whatever link you’re drawing, or trying to draw, between the Japanese bubble, and their current demographic destiny escapes me, you’ll need to expand on that.

In my limited experience, bubbles are usually the result of short term tactics, rather than long term strategy.


It’s the fact you view it as destiny. There’s nothing destined about simplistic extrapolation.


This may be a deficiency of internet discussion, but I think you’re trying to paint me as an absolutist, I’m not. Like opinion polling, demographic projections are not an exact science. The phrase is a shorthand, it simply means that on current trajectory, if nothing changes, here’s what will likely happen. Obviously, the opportunity for change, disruption, repair, etc. always exists. Do you have a problem with that? … on-trends/


Yes, because nothing that is published about demographics ever includes those caveats. Rarely does it include “on current trends”. The Axios piece you reference doesn’t:

This is stated as fact rather than projection based on trend between 2010 Census and 2016 Census.

I am not trying to paint you as an absolutionist, you can paint yourself as one by defending straight line projections, but I don’t think you will.


Is an absolutionist one who holds to absolutes or one who offers absolution?

:confused: I’m bewildered.

Still, I’ll forgive you for confusing me. :smiley:





The underlined is itself a “very” absolutist statement, for which you should seek absolution. :smiley:

My default, and I think that of most people is, that just like with polling projections those caveats are always baked in.


McKinsey Quarterly, quoted in Sunday’s N.Y. Times

"In 1990, the top three automakers in Detroit had among them nominal revenues of $250 billion … and 1.2 million employees. The top three companies in Silicon Valley in 2014 had [roughly the same revenue] … and only 137,000 employees.


Truck drivers to become like military drone operators, or maybe air traffic controllers. … their-jobs