The crash has cometh

I feel that the phoney war is nearly at an end, mainly for two reasons.

Firstly, Daftwatch is just exploding. Most notably, County Dublin is on the up again, significantly for sales, but dramatically for rental.

Secondly, and most importantly, the mounting economic indicators are becoming impossible to ignore. The elephant that entered the room as a baby has now grown to the extent that walls are buckling. The March retail sales figures released today will get a lot of coverage and certainly leave no doubt that Ireland is in a recession.

Hark, what light through yonder window breaks?

T’is the real world you dopey git.

Definitely still massive denial out there,people are a bit scared but everyone (commentators,media) is telling them were nearly there,so they don’t think it’s too bad.Once the dominos start to fall it going to get scary !.

Tell that to a smug-looking Cowen on today’s opinion poll results:

^ pic from front page of today’s Indo

to be fair to him,he didn’t do a whole lot to help the builders at the start,seems to realise that it’s going to happen ,so why waste taxpayers money propping it up.I’d give him a chance to prove me wrong,he’s definitely a leader compared to bertie who just followed the path of least resistance wherever that lead us.
As for the irish electorate , as strange an animal as you will find anywhere !.

But arent we just going through a small correction and the rise can begin again in earnest sometime early 2009?

You’ve got the wrong script there,it’s all doom and gloom here !
Can someone email that man a pin script,so he can get with the programme ?

The crunch is over, please move along, nothing to see here…

I feel that this is a more acurate description of the public mindset. For sure, anyone who actually bothers to analyse all the publically available data could not help but come to the same conclusion about the economy that most of the posters here have. But most do not, so instead the read the regurgitated press releases that qualify as financial journalism in this country. To boot, the story being sold to the average punter alters with every new economic development.

We started off with no slowdown, this morphed into a soft-landing slowdown. When the soft landing became bumpy we were told that house price drops simply served to increase afordability. As the general macro picture darkens, we are now being told that this slowdown was inevitable, but the rebound is on the horizon.

Irrespective of the true state of the economy, there is a lot of spin left to be spun and also remember that lots of people will hear only what they want to hear.

I feel that the public will not realise how bad things are until the soft-bumby-only-a-dip-almost-there-now slowdown begins to manifest itself in genuine economic pain - lots more unemployed, more firms going bust, further detioration in public finances etc…

Sure if every second builder who left school at 18 and still has a bit of youth left in him is heading of going off to Australia, the writing’s on the wall as far as house-building in Ireland is concerned. The builders themselves don’t believe things will last, so what hope have the politicians/media got at convincing us?

Sorry but as Minister for Finance he made a dogs bollox of the budget predictions – out a couple of billion every year! He wouldn’t know what fiscal policy was if it slapped him in the face. And now we should ‘give him a chance’?!

But the minister doesn’t make the predictions,the dept does and when have they ever been right ?. I wonder did the Secretary General get one of them big bonus payments that dept heads get for a job well done afew years ago ?. Obviously you just have to present the figures ,it’s doesn’t actually matter if there right or not !.

I agree

The enlightenment will be developer led.

And there is a couple of interesting articles in today’s Indo that are dangerously off message and talk of developers predicitng a longer and deeper “correction”, plus more price cuts.

Add on to that McInerney’s statements from yesterday.

Looking at CNN this morning Charles Hodgson was speaking to a dude from Bank of America on the state of the German economy. He felt that the the interest rate effect takes 9 months to properly flow through. The scary thing is we have problems competing at the moment which if you believed this guy is at the 1.35-1.40 level.
Austin might get his interest rate cut next March but we certainly won’t be welcoming it then coz our economy should be in some deep do do.

Yep, now the sign makers business for the EA’s has dried up I might get a bargin on a “the end is nigh” before the rush.

Will Faulkner said on his programme (Midlands Radio 3) that many tradesmen contacting station to say they cannot find any work with some out of work for up to a year.

CIF spokeperson came on to say that we were at the end of price falls
and he countered the unemployment figures with the line that (A) Everything would soon be rosy as the ESRI forcasts were saying so and
wait for this … he and the boys from the CIF were just back from meeting with the money men in Washington DC and the good news is that we are nearing the end of the credit crunch so buy now… Where do this boys come from

I have some experience with the boyos from the CIF.

On matters financial they are not particularly well grounded, but are not aware of that fact themselves.

:laughing: :laughing: :laughing: :laughing: :laughing: :laughing: :laughing:

The money men in the case of the US are in NY and to a lesser extent Boston. But if you are looking for the real money then London is the place.

As for the CIF meeting with the money men, these money men must be looking for their money back.
As for anybody being able to say when the CC is over, maybe they met up with some rich palmists. What a bunch of sad saps. They are like a traveling circus, except they don’t have any acts, they have patter.

Cool, so no need for the ECB to act so cautiously on interest rates then. Let’s put those tracker rates up lads.

One of the “Washington money men” recently engaged in erudite economic financial discussions with the boys from the CIF:

what are the odds on the first quarter being negative growth? do any of the bookies take bets on it?

If the bookie uses the ESRI figures as their metric, you might be in luck. :laughing: