The curious case of the fall in crime

economist.com/news/leaders/2 … ention-not

I read an article a while back and the author linked the fall in crime in the US to the reduced usage of lead paint in inner citys, I’ll try to find it.

Lead paint had nothing to do with it. Around here it was three strikes and bunch of Propositions that tightened up sentencing that seemed to really break the back of petty crime by the mid 90’s. The crack epidemic of the mid 80’s to mid 90’s seemed to have also made a big dent in the most problematic demographic. Street crime changed radically between the mid 80’s and the mid 90s’. It mainly disappeared in most neighborhoods. Anyone who had experienced places like NYC or LA in the early / mid 80s will know just how sketchy and dangerous most US cities were at the time. Muggings were a just a part of daily life back then. Its very different nowadays.

Of course we will always have Oakland…

The evidence is certainly pointing at lead in petrol. Here’s a good article on it.

I guess it depends on what the likely age of violent criminals was?

It’s interesting to tie in to the madness that resulted from lead solder in that expedition that went looking for the NorthWest passage. Clearly lead has an effect on adults, but the studies I vaguely remember seemed to indicate that its effects started in the womb - that there were measurable effects from atmospheric lead even before birth.

Agreed. Starting with Giuliani’s “zero tolerance” policy, the USA locked up all the petty criminals for very long sentences effectively removing them from society and their ability to commit more serious crimes.

The downside is that the USA now has a bigger gulag system than the Soviet Union, and people committing victimless crimes like “unauthorised copying” have been swept up into the system as well.

You could make that case if it was only in the US were the drop occurred but it’s everywhere so zero tolerance doesn’t explain the drop in Estonia or Japan. The decrease in lead poisoning would seem more plausible.

Yes, it was lead petrol not paint.

The article quoted by the OP has a few suggestions:

I don’t buy the zero tolerance/‘three strikes’ argument. I would imagine that having the father in prison is far more likely to result in the child also committing crime.

Here’s a good read on the introduction of Leaded Gasoline.

Guess which other fuckup Midgely was involved in?

Think ozone and fridges…

Even for violent crimes?

How come?

It has to make a difference, think of the case of Guido Nasi, the scumbag who attacked him had over 40 previous convictions before he ended poor Guidos life

and thats not a one off, the country if full of scum slowly accumulating a long list of “minor” convictions, they only get sent down when they do some life changing damage to some poor soul, and even then our tard judges give out joke sentences

if these people are off the streets it must have an effect on crime, if all the junkies in Dublin were locked up tomorrow it would be a very different city

The guy who attacked Guido Nasi assaulted my father a couple of months before Guido, during the day, while my father was working. My father went to the guards, with the guy’s name and was told “It’s your word against his really…”.

What evidence?

As oppose to your leftwing do gooder scumbagism?

Why don’t you answer my questions?

No doubt a lot of crime is caused by drug addicts attempting to feed their habit, but I doubt if it’s significant in the final figures. Mostly opportunist stuff like handbags or phones, or maybe some burglaries and car theft. I don’t have figures for the Republic, but in the North the total cost of property crime against the individual (muggings, house burglary, theft, car robberies etc) was only £60 million in 2006/7. The amount that this crime was worth to the criminals (junkies?) was probably less than 20% of this. About £10 million per annum? Seems like a pittance when you compare it to the cost of responding to the crime, or indeed to white collar fraud.

Jailing a drug addict removes the problem temporarily, but the social and financial cost in the long term doesn’t make sense. Better to intensively treat the addiction or, failing that, find ways to mitigate the costs.

What would happen if you jail the drug dealers? More dealers fill the void. Jail the burglars for life? Their kids grow up with no father.

According to the American Correctional Association, up to 50% of incarcerated juveniles have a parent who is or has been incarcerated.

I remember listening to Marion Overpaid a few years ago interviewing a retired guard. His sad view was that you could walk around Holles St and predict the babies who would be in the children’s court in 10 years due to the chaotic/fucked up life of the parents.

But heresay anyway :wink:

Aside from that I think it’s a whole plethora of things. Connectivity (watch the Sweeney communicate), surveillance, security and maybe even some education.

You call that evidence?

And you don’t think calling yourself centrist(oooh, aren’t you great and good!) is box ticking?

No it doesn’t. And to treat people as automatons???

Correlation does not imply causation.

Do you? And I know exactly your positon too. A centrist, so called do gooder,