The David McWilliams thread


#2081

Yep, the main skill of the old bust developers was gladhanding their way round the system. If new entrants aren’t turning up, it is the system that prevents it… With financing costs at near zero, a price set by the CBoI (the mortgage ‘limits’ work both ways), there should be no barrier to financing building.


#2082

exactly.

I’m looking at windfarm developers, of which there are many, and they are building. Basic skillset should transfer to any other type of construction development: planning permissions, EIS, civil design, etc., construction management, building control regs, and so on. Some things you have to do for your residential build that you don’t on a windfarm, but other complexities removed (e.g. don’t need a power purchase agreement or 38kV/110kV grid connection or to negotiate the complexities of contestible grid asset construction and subgroups).


#2083

Possibly need s a separate thread

economist.com/news/finance-a … eartacheis

Turns out Swedish. Housing market is fairly farked too

Talk of Max LTV, property tax,


#2084

ouch


#2085

McWilliams, while full of good intentions, often tries too hard to be an expert on everything, I’ve heard him comment on a range of subjects over the years where his views lack important nuances. He is, however, bang on the money that property in this country is a fully fledged racket. Unfortunately it is always the way with these media types, they can’t get enough of hearing their own voice and so don’t known when to stop. Dan O’Brien is another one who should learn to just shut up.


#2086

Actually the floppy one himself today in Kilkenny on a panel discussing the 1916 rising the economic consequences. He didn’t say much, repeated a lot of demographic stuff he’d covered in the popes children but the star of the show was Des Bishop. I’d never been a fan but he handled waffling from everyone hilariously.


#2087

A half decent DMcW article today decrying election giveaways and calling for stronger budget oversight:

davidmcwilliams.ie/2015/12/1 … a-to-shame

(Link currently broken on site)


#2088

independent.ie/opinion/colum … 74967.html

Sorry bout giving Indo traffic.


#2089

I’ll wait til it’s fixed on McWilliams site :smiley:


#2090

Dublin is not the rest of the country, you can buy property quite cheaply (in comparison to Dublin) just about everywhere else on this island still. If you cant beat them, join them.


#2091

Because there are no jobs there. Don’t worry, if the vi’s could game the country towns again they would.


#2092

There was a fella on the radio this morning (c.10:30 on Radio One) who spent the first half of the interview suggesting that ECB interest rates were now too low for Ireland because growth was so strong and then used the last part to say that tax cuts were essential because unemployment was so high.

And Maccer got away with it - again!


#2093

Just listening to that podcast now. We, as humans, are either “giddy” or “depressed”

Giddy = consumer spending.
Depressed = savings.

Could catch on.


#2094

That gave me a chuckle.

Inflation at zero
Investment still well below normal
Unemployment at 8%
Monetary policy in near neighbours still incredibly lax

What to do? Raise interest rates!


#2095

davidmcwilliams.ie/2015/12/2 … e-pharaohs

“The heavily indebted nature of the global economy as the world heads into another cycle where interest rates may be raised across the board (because typically the developed world follows the Fed”

Across the board meaning ECB…Yes I know German 5 year debt / Bund not suggesting rate raises at moment (Edit: next 12 months) …but any thoughts on ECB raises? …as per the link is this the “elephant” in the Irish room…are we in some what false environment? how big an impact would higher rates have on house prices, business lending and therefore employment?


#2096

Zero chance of an ecb rate rise in 2016 unless something monumentally miraculous happens.


#2097

Yes given 2016 is upon us I think thats more than safe to say …I’ll have to edit my original post accordingly …as currently I see no indication of rises over the next 12months…of course I’m open to different views on that.


#2098

The ECB rate is at a local maximum until end 2017.


#2099

WTFFF?

bbc.com/news/business-29823798


#2100

“In the next few months, the courts will decide how many of Ireland’s small businesses will be handed over to these funds. This transfer of assets is taking place right under our nose. It is a disaster for the country, for the society and for the capital base of the economy, and yet it is legal.”

davidmcwilliams.ie/2016/03/1 … nslaved-us