The David McWilliams thread


#1961

Thanks for posting those Metalmike.
Just ran those figures through excel. What I did was totted up the annual rises into cumulative rises. Now if we take Morgan Kelly’s figure of 70% for gains lost during a bust, pick the starting date of the bubble and you can have the “ending price” at the end of the bust and thus what year you would be reverting to.

Summary is as follows:
1992 to 1995 - 1999
1996 to 1997 - 2000
1998 - 2001
1999 - 2002
2000 to 2002 - 2003
2003 - 2004
2004 to 2005 - 2005
Obviously you get nonsensical results if you start assuming the bubble started in the mid-noughties.
The gist is that even if you assumed that the bubble actually started after 1991, we would go back to 1999 prices at the earliest and not before.

Summary:
imgur.com/Wu2Ch4b


#1962


#1963

Of course there was a bubble in 1999. But let’s remember the standard of living and tech based productivity increases since 1999 that have impacted all our lives, as well as the ‘pint of milk’ inflation measures (what was petrol a litre in 1999?).

So if Irish property reverted back to a 1999 level with sub 10% unemployment we’d have a reasonably stable and healthy position. But property is not at 1999 levels. It’s almost at 2005 levels in some segments in Dublin. Prof Honohan’s (and others in Kildare st) job is supposed to be financial stability, so let’s hope the measures introduced and exhaustion of the relatively limited cash piles is taking hold now and brings this country back down to ground level, albeit kicking and screaming.


#1964

Here is where that clip came from.


#1965

If the pin was there we’d have to read out loud our own posts if we couldn’t afford more attractive actors, imagine that! :smiley: You could put a cardboard cutout of you avatar over you face if you felt a bit camera shy but be careful not to eat your face if you find yourself a bit peckish during the proceedings. :sick:

… but seriously have you ever had at chat with someone who lip reads your words as you speak them (like they’re doing the rosary under their breath). Some people do this unbeknown to their good self. If you notice it as you are speaking it can be somewhat disconcerting.

Last point, that was a speech (as boy racer has already posted again) he probably has it mapped into brain at this point. You do that when you rehearse your side in a debate. Once you learn something you tend never to forget it like a poem. If you have that kind of retention. Some people do. It helps if you are in the communication business I guess.


#1966

Loved the clip played on the RTE news last night where one TD asked him ‘were you wrong about anything’ and McW answered ‘not during that period’.


#1967

Very much reminded me of this …


#1968

I thought the news clip cut off in the middle of that sentence? I didn’t take that to be his response but it does make sense alright.


#1969

[Deleted – the mods “toned down” my post so I have removed it in full. It wasn’t amusing any more. And apparently you cannot say “hand job” on the Internet]


#1970

Are Austin Hughes or Dan McLaughlin being asked to appear before this inquiry? if not , why not? They were the mouthpieces and probaly the most vocal cheerleaders for the bubble.


#1971

davidmcwilliams.ie/2015/03/0 … omy-burned


#1972

Indeed much was written here too amid the blaze.


#1973

revenue.ie/en/personal/circu … kages.html
:unamused:
this is already the case (The employer writes it off like any expense and no PAYE is due…)


#1974

independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-mcwilliams/young-paying-too-high-a-price-over-the-failure-to-act-on-interest-rates-31125895.html

In this column there isn’t a single mention of the lack of repossessions in this country. This is a major factor in the high rate of interest being chared on SVRs. Why does DMcW ignore the elephant in the room? Is he a VI? … Surely not. Say it aint’ so, David.


#1975

Can’t believe he omitted it - really undermines his article


#1976

Should be ban on VI’s contributing to the media …being presented as an “expert” when really selling some rubbish


#1977

I would be far more interested to see David McWilliams interrogating the civil and public servants, bankers and politicians (including opposition FG and Labour politicians who called for FF to stoke the bubble further when FF were pulling back) who had responsibility for the jobs they were paid to do, rather than politicians interrogating McWilliams about his actions as a commentator.


#1978

Maybe it was always intended as a follow-up :wink:

davidmcwilliams.ie/2015/04/1 … -266232449


#1979

Best of luck convincing the ECB of this one, David!


#1980

WTF??

All of a sudden McFloppy has a problem with

independent.ie/opinion/colum … 80736.html
:unamused:
the ginger bollox makes a living out of it