The day the Tiger died

Between yesterday and today, with the headlines and the general downbeat outlook, coupled with the psychology of a sub 6,000 ISEQ, makes me think that today is the day that we will look back on and think “That’s when she blew”.

For many of us in here, the “Tiger” died around 2001, and since then it’s been a building frenzy fueled by cheap credit. However, for your average man on the street, I think the last few days have been tumultuous, and I think it’s finally stuck in the public mind that the “good old days” are finally over.

Comments?

ISEQ below 6000 is just splitting hairs at this stage - either way the stock market down ~40% in less than a year, with most of the bad news yet to come.

I have to admit they managed to drag this out a good bit longer than i expected, the writing was on the wall by this time last year - it’s amazing we were still in 9-10K ISEQ range for so long after. We managed to get another 60 billion into the fire in that time too - how long will that add to the recovery process?

The only bets now are the timings on all the obvious events - major irish bank failure or buyout, government exceeding the 3% deficit limit, first tax rises or serious cutbacks, when unemployment will hit 8%, 10% etc.

The tiger (if it ever existed, geckko would say it did not) died when the dot-com boom crashed, it’s been on life support since (but looking pretty good for it).

In fairness it’s not just paddyland

In answer to all the free market unfettered unregulated capitalists who would have us closer to Boston than Berlin…

Berlin is looking a bit more stable now

9despite all those dodgly landesbanks.

Hold onto your nutsack. It’s going to get bumpy !

Dec 1st 2005 when the ecg started to increase interest rates.

but dead in 2001

Germany is still reeling with all the fallout from the USA subprime. The KO blow will be landed when the Celtic Tiger and British Securitised Mortgages go belly up :cry:

So what you’re all sayin’ is that now is a good time to buy?

…& you now have 61,800 listings on Daft to chose from!

I can say today is a new low for me anyway… working in and enjoying Ireland, good job, want to settle here permanently, have good deposit but it’s mostly in Sterling! 1.28 to the pound wipes out any potential stamp duty savings from the last budget.

My elderly parents have their entire life savings sitting in a bank and really need the money to live on. I mean, Jesus, there isn’t any chance an Irish bank could go under is there? Can’t believe I’m even thinking this. What a carry on.

You should be thinking about this in the current environment. I personally have spread my money around several banks and will accept a slightly lower interest rate for now. Remember the deposit protection scheme will cover you for barely 20k.

Do we know which banks and building societies are most at risk? The all seems to be playing their caards close to their chests… Unusual high deposit rates tend to be the give away though

Is Northern Rock now the safest bet for cash as it’s now been nationalised?

guardian.co.uk/money/2008/fe … ings.banks

ucd.ie/economics/staff/mkell … lvency.pdf

I really cant encourage you enough to spread the money around
Have ye all read Morgan Kellys report? Have ye all gone through the statistics on borrowing and lending and the empties…
On the 10 year interest only “investor” loans that bought the empties?
The people owe money
Builders owe money
Developers owe money

It all adds up there is only one possible outcome…

Bank run thread here:

thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?t=3797

For me, the day the Celtic Tiger began was when Ireland first appeared at Italia '90. The day it ended was Sunday 5th August 2007 on the last day of the Galway races.

discussion on the topic from a year ago
forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ … opic=18087

I think the housing bubble finally started it’s super slow motion bursting in mid 2006.

That was the end of the Celtic tiger. It’s been surviving on life support since then - but it’s clinically dead.

The housing bubble economy is still squarely in denial territory as far as I’m concerned.

“There are no empties. Everything will be grand. Temporary reduction in supply will force prices to start rising again. Value in the market. Cheaper to buy than to rent”

Pure bullshit, all of it.

The day the Tiger died? The day we were doomed to squander the boom and destroy ourselves economically and socially and psychologically for a generation? Friday, 6th June, 1997.

The day it was born. The fundamentals or business model are all wrong. :frowning:

I would have to agree.