The Economic Impact of Covid 19


#1

#2

#3

Very sad and the first of many more. However, as it was before and as it will be this time the enormity of this will be borne and felt by small business. The 1 to 50 person company or enterprise that will cease. There will be no individual headlines or articles regarding each one of those and the impact and fallout of the losses there will go far beyond the economy.

It really is so depressing.


#4

Exactly. Dozens of years of labour. Obliterated by Amazon, FANGS and big company corporate welfare.


#5

How are people thinking about the prospect of a bail-in?

I have seven figures on deposit in my company account which I had earmarked for a mix of expansion and retirement. I did get in a bit of a panic when this all kicked off and did some preliminary research about moving it, but maybe I got a bit caught up in the whole “we’re in this together and everything’s going to be ok” spiel and put it from my mind. Now I’m thinking I’m going to be put in the firing line long before the tech multinationals, Brazilian rickshaw drivers and public sector retirees with 20+ years of life left get burnt.

We’re not quite on the path to oblivion yet imo, but it’s only a matter of a few weeks before it becomes inevitable, and I’m not sure that the people in charge appreciate this. I’d even go far as saying they have a tenuous grasp on reality…

My first thoughts were to split it up into 100Ks and spread it out across different countries and banks in Europe, including Switzerland and possibly some Canadian bank too, but there’s always the possibility that some EU wide coordination of individual haircuts will happen. I don’t think the UK is a runner because the potential f/X loss with Sterling is too high. So any ideas? Singapore? Hong Kong? Australia? Belize?


#6

If youre asking about a ‘wealth tax’ then my tuppence would be in the ‘yes’ hat.


#7

I could see it being far worse than a tax ie a Cyprus type scenario.


#8

#9

Same boat only at least moved it around banks here, so < 100K in each. Wealth tax inevitable imo.


#10

More than an economic impact for many.


#11

Have you tried opening foreign bank accounts? In my experience it’s nigh on impossible. I tried when Rabo shut up shop here. Tried the Netherlands, New Zealand, and others. Nobody was interested unless you had a social security number from the country involved. It makes a mockery of the EU as a single market for services. Some countries have been rolling back their financial services for foreign citizens since the GFC. The Swiss Post Office stopped taking deposits (a sibling had an account there), and afaik you can’t buy German bundts anymore. I presume there are still avenues for the very rich, but I don’t think a seven figure sum qualifies as that.

By my reckoning you’re left with the Irish banks, Ulster Bank, and N26. Plus a few other avenues like Prize Bonds and – if you fancy risk investments including FX risk – UK Investment Trusts. The latter got slaughtered early on in the Covid crisis, as did the currency, so I took the opportunity to top up and it’s worked out ok so far. But with most of my assets still on deposit in Irish banks I’m screwed if there’s a bail-in. Unbelievable that we are at this juncture for the second time in ten years. It’s hard to remember back to when people thought there was nothing safer than money in the bank.


#12

Most older people remember older relatives having zero trust in the banks and keeping all their cash in the house somewhere.

Not trusting banks is nothing new.


#13

So what do you do?


#14

“under the mattress”


#15

A couple of years ago, an old farmer’s house caught fire and was servery damaged, he had much of his savings in cash and lost the lot in the fire.


#16

#17

Lots of talk about pubs, this will hit youth unemployment hard but also the supply chains into them - breweries are largely indigenous but if even more pub drinking is replaced by home drinking then bottled beer, wine etc will have more imports in the mix.


#18

What are the odds Trump out of the blue signs some sort of an executive order to mandate ‘repatriation’ of pharmaceutical and medical device manufacturing - now that will bite hard and deep for a long time.


#19

#20

That’s a shame.
Hopefully won’t be reopened as a starbucks.