The Economic Impact of Covid 19

Two options for many at the minute.

A)Remain asset-less and mobile and run the risk of savings being eroded by inflation.
B) Put the savings into assets and run the risk of asset-value crash or/and extended debt servitude

The road to Serfdom ….


Have been tracking Residential Mortgages, and it’s downward trend for some time.

Since summer 2021 there is less than €70bn in outstanding residential mortgages out there in Ireland.
Really the Irish mortgage market has contracted back to mid 2004 levels (before the insane ramp up into 2008), which is a fairly sustainable level.

In contrast Deposits from households are €136bn. So there is almost 2 euros in bank deposits for every 1 euro in outstanding mortgage debt at this stage.

Deposits from households rocketed in 2020 and 2021. Thanks to Government largesse for specific areas

The CBI says:
Deposits from households continued to reach new
heights, and exceeded €136 billion at end-October 2021.
Over the month of October, household deposits recorded
a net flow of over €1.2 billion (Chart 3). In annual terms,
net household deposits increased by just below
€13 billion, or 10.6 per cent.

The taxpayer taken for a ride yet again. But sure isn’t it great for the auld GDP wha?

The PAC will also hear the State spent €635m on the administrative costs alone of paying out Covid financial supports last year.
It will today be told that the PUP, the Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme and the temporary wage subsidy scheme payments cost the State €9bn last year.

The Department of Social Protection paid out nearly €30bn in total on scheme payments.

This was an increase of 48pc compared with 2019.

This is Grafton St on the run up to Christmas.

Many businesses are trying to survive till the New Year before they fold.

There is an enormous amount of debt building up.

What is the government’s exit plan?

More evidence of individuals deleveraging while the state rolls out the pork barrel

CREDIT unions have begun to recover from a collapse in lending that hit them at the start of the pandemic, but are still struggling to get members to borrow.

The Central Bank said the sector is continuing to battle with weak demand for loans, with too much money being deposited with them in savings.

Excess savings in credit unions have to be put into mainstream banks, with negative interest rates being applied to these funds.

If credit unions had more demand for loans they could earn a return from loaning out the excess funds instead of putting it into banks.

Covid-19’s onset left credit unions facing pressure to “remain open” due to a collapse in lending.

Applications for loans fell by up to 80pc as the coronavirus pandemic made people reluctant to borrow.

Overall lending at the State’s 214 trading credit unions fell last year as a result of the pandemic.

But up to September this year it has recovered by €160m to stand at €5.25bn, the Central Bank said in its ‘2021 Financial Conditions of Credit Unions’ report.

The lenders have also managed to slow down the pace of growth of deposits.

Most credit unions now have caps on savings levels.

Of note, Ireland is experiencing a demographic catastrophe

Government tax receipts surged to a record €68.4 billion last year as consumer spending and employment rebounded from the pandemic at a sharper-than-expected rate.

Year-end exchequer returns, published by the Department of Finance, show tax receipts rose by almost 20 per cent or €11 billion last year despite the negative impact of restrictions to curb the coronavirus at the start of the year.

The latest numbers pointed to an exchequer deficit of €7.4 billion for 2021, an improvement of nearly €5 billion on 2020.

€9bn more collected than in 2019 before the lockdowns :dipso: The boom just gets boomier

I’m struggling to understand how this is possible.

Is it all based on taxing pharma?

Maybe online purchases have compensated for the loss in standard retail?

On this basis there’s no real incentive for those who call the shots to ever exit the pandemic….new normal here to stay?

Must be an inflationary impact as well, pay rises, price rises yielding higher VAT, bumper profits at Big Pharma and Big Tech

Certainly won’t resonate with Paddy and Mary generally

UBI will not pose any problems so. Can’t fully understand these figures either.

Don’t forget PUP effect. Heard anecdotes of students (with no pubs to spend it in) buying own cars and Seomras off of it. Increased State revenues off the back of increased State borrowings is nothing to be bragging about - and (as other pinsters have pointed out) it’s revenue from inflating underlying prices, and all denominated in an inflating currency that is slowly losing its value and purchasing power. Not good.

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So, unless your pension is in property, you’re stuffed!

Exchequer deficit of €7½ billion recorded in 2021: Corporation tax receipts at similar levels to VAT, €13½ billion in Covid related expenditure to support recovery

I noticed Comical Austin on the RTE the other day

Speaking of which…
My pension is DC. Does anyone have the full article or know what’s happening? What may happen to my pension this year – and should I be worried? – The Irish Times

PM’d you

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Also TJ? Ta

Ireland’s economy will boom for the next three years as we emerge from the pandemic, the Central Bank has predicted.

Consumer spending will play a big part in strong growth, which is expected to average 6.5pc a year until 2024.

This spending will oil the wheels of domestic firms which, combined with exports, will add an estimated 167,000 jobs over the next three years.

The Central Bank’s first quarterly economic bulletin of 2022 offers a rosy picture, and means the budget is forecast to go into surplus in 2023, two years earlier than had been predicted.

There is good news for workers, as wage rises are set to outpace price increases over the next three years.

However, higher electricity and home heating bills are here to stay, with energy prices unlikely to fall back from their current levels – although they will stop spiking next year, the Central Bank predicts.

“It certainly is a very positive outlook,” said Mark Cassidy, the Central Bank’s director of economics and statistics.

The Best Is Yet To Come! :icon_wink: :dipso::muscle:

Do they adjust for inflation in their calculations?

Adjust for it? Their rosy forecast figures are depending on it! :wink: