The Economic Impact of Covid 19

coronavirus

#186

Considering the money blown by this government every day of the week on spurious activities, it is indeed an embarrassment that an institution that benefits quality of life for many resorts to the begging bowl to raise half a million a month.

No doubt some will believe it should shut down, but when we look at quality of life and economics in the round this is the sort of thing that we should have a problem with IMO.


#187

The elephants should pay their own way! Turn them into taxis or give rides to tourists for money. Surely the monkeys could get a job in the civil service?!


#188

Don’t you mean in the Dáil!

oh wait, the chimpanzees are already there


#189

Joint provisional liquidators have been appointed by the High Court to four Irish operating companies that are part of the UK fashion group Arcadia.

There are 487 people employed in 14 stores in Ireland by the companies that include Topshop/Topman Ireland.

The firms also operate concession stands in a number of different premises.

It is hoped the Irish operations can be sold as part of an overall sale of the Arcadia Group, the court heard.

The intention is that the Irish stores are to continue trading through Christmas under the provisional liquidators, in an effort to maximise the value of the stock.


#190

Closing down sales in H&M and Zara on Henry Street, Dublin. Apparently other retailers on the same street will also be shutting down in the new year.

Looks like the recession will kick in for real after Christamas.


#191

It could be argued that this is just an acceleration of a trend that had started long before Covid - a trend to online retail.
Retail sales in Ireland are up 9% on the year to October. Clearly, people are still spending.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rsi/retailsalesindexoctober2020/


#192

ESRI: Economy set for ‘remarkable’ upturn but unemployment still at 10% at end of 2021 (irishexaminer.com)

After an extraordinary year, the economy is heading for a huge recovery helped by the unleashing of billions in household savings but even a strong rebound will still mean 240,000 are left unemployed and it will take a number of years for the jobless rate to return to its pre-Covid-19 pandemic level.

These are among the key forecasts from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) as it tracks the likely path leading to the start of a strong recovery in 2021.

This year, the think tank’s final major quarterly report of 2020 sets out the uneven victims of the crisis as well as the starring role played by the multinationals where exports of pharma and medical device products and computer services helped to support other parts of an economy pummelled by some of the toughest domestic lockdowns in Europe.

In GDP terms, the economy will grow by a “remarkable” rate of almost 5% this year, said senior research officer Conor O’Toole, after goods exports boomed. That’s in sharp contrast to the domestic-facing economy facing the unprecedented shocks of the lockdowns and the surge in pandemic-driven unemployment.

Maybe more people will realise that these GDP figures bear little resemblance to the economy they inhabit.

I’m sure the Debt/GDP brigade will not waste a good opportunity here to justify more spending.


#193

Multi nationals booming but ‘domestic facing’ economy in the gutter.

Sounds a bit third world to me.


#194

Yeah smells a bit ‘Hunger Games’


#195

… theme-park Éire.


#196

How Ireland Became 2020’s Fastest Growing Economy


#197

Im surprised by the lack of focus in that video on the silliness of suggesting that GDP per capita is any way reflective of reality in this country. Its clearly a skewed, pointless metric in a society where large numbers cant afford even the most basic accommodation.

As an aside, I walked through Dublin city centre this evening. Its like a ghost town in economic terms with plenty of very dubious characters out and about. Groups of kids and homeless people literally the only people to be seen anywhere.

Given Dr Henrys latest suggestion is that we are a year away from a return to normality…and given that they said it was to be for a week or two last March, where is this thing headed?


#198

To quote another contributor here.

"You are exactly where they want you to be right now. "

Are you comfortable?


#199

Tax take down by half a billion euro in January

THE amount of Vat collected on pre-Christmas trading was well down on the previous year despite indications of strong retail sales.

The latest Exchequer figures show that severe public health restrictions in place since Christmas mean the State’s public finances are off to a rocky start.

Public Expenditure and Reform Minister Michael McGrath said the numbers are in line with what was anticipated in Budget 2021 – which had assumed no vaccines this year and allowed for spending to remain elevated.

“These developments vindicate our Budget strategy of making over €5.4bn available in funding for a Contingency Reserve and Recovery Fund, which we are deploying to support incomes and fund essential health and education expenditure while preparing the economy for recovery later this year,” he said.

The latest numbers show tax revenues in January were down 9pc compared to the same month last year, including big falls in Vat and excise duty, while social welfare spending was 42pc higher.

January is an important month for Vat collection which is usually boosted by pre-Christmas trading, however, Vat receipts last month were down €340m from last year.

That reflects the hit to trading from the successive lockdowns in November and late December, and suggests CSO retail sales data that showed a rise in December spending has not translated into the tax take.

The Exchequer figures record a total €520m drop in cash terms of tax collected versus the same month last year.

Despite heavy job losses as the latest Level 5 lockdown kicked in, income tax receipts have held up, and even rose €85m from the January 2020 tally.

However, spending by the Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection was up €800m year-on-year as pandemic wage supports were drawn down.

Link


#200

Covid set to shave as much as £60bn from corporate pension costs

Companies’ liabilities to fall as pandemic hits life expectancy

The cost to companies of “final salary” style pension schemes could fall by as much as £60bn because of the impact of Covid-19, according to new analysis. Modelling, which quantifies the financial impact of the pandemic on company retirement schemes for the first time, suggests that pension liabilities for individual companies could fall by tens, or even hundreds of millions of pounds, as life expectancy estimates are revised down, shrinking funding holes. In the UK, about 5,300 businesses fund defined-benefit pension plans, which promise to pay secure pensions for life to about 11m members and surviving spouses. In recent years, improvements in life expectancy have added to the costs of meeting these pension pledges, which can run decades into the future.

link


#201

I knew that it was only a matter of time before a pension fund would come out with analysis like this.


#202

Follow the money as always.


#203

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00193-8/fulltext

Correspondence/letter in the Lancet:

Calling for benefit–risk evaluations of COVID-19 control measures

Delayed diagnosis and treatment are expected to increase the numbers of deaths up to year 5 after diagnosis by 7·9–9·6% for breast cancer, 15·3–16·6% for colorectal cancer, 4·8–5·3% for lung cancer, and 5·8–6·0% for oesophageal cancer.

In a meta-analysis of the prevalence of stress, anxiety, depression among the general population during the COVID-19 pandemic, the prevalence of depression in the months of the pandemic up to May, 2020, was 33·7% (95% CI 27·5–40·6). Between April 22 and May 11, 2020, 795 (78·9%) of 1008 people aged 18–35 years in the USA reported symptoms of depression.


#204

Onward into the breach…


#205

All going to plan so. Excellent.