The Economic Impact of Covid 19

PM’d you

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Also TJ? Ta

Ireland’s economy will boom for the next three years as we emerge from the pandemic, the Central Bank has predicted.

Consumer spending will play a big part in strong growth, which is expected to average 6.5pc a year until 2024.

This spending will oil the wheels of domestic firms which, combined with exports, will add an estimated 167,000 jobs over the next three years.

The Central Bank’s first quarterly economic bulletin of 2022 offers a rosy picture, and means the budget is forecast to go into surplus in 2023, two years earlier than had been predicted.

There is good news for workers, as wage rises are set to outpace price increases over the next three years.

However, higher electricity and home heating bills are here to stay, with energy prices unlikely to fall back from their current levels – although they will stop spiking next year, the Central Bank predicts.

“It certainly is a very positive outlook,” said Mark Cassidy, the Central Bank’s director of economics and statistics.

The Best Is Yet To Come! :icon_wink: :dipso::muscle:

Do they adjust for inflation in their calculations?

Adjust for it? Their rosy forecast figures are depending on it! :wink:

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No doubt in Ireland the various scams would in the billions.

Always assuming there are border forces searching for it

Border guards have caught several people ‘carrying large amounts of money’ believed to be from the bounce back loan programme which was then seized under the Proceeds of Crime Act, the Home Office said.

Other cases of abuse include a pub landlord who pocketed £29,000 in fake ‘consultancy fees’, a soft drinks company owner who inflated his turnover by 100 times to get the maximum loan, and a restaurant boss who was given a loan despite having been evicted from his premises for failing to pay rent.

Some of the swindlers have shared photos of themselves posing with luxury cars, while others used the taxpayer money for poker games, home improvements and luxury watches.

As much as £17billion out of the £47billion officials paid out in bounce back loans will never be paid back, according to recent estimates, and of that about £4.9billion is thought to have been lost to fraud.

Overall, ‘fraud and error’ across all the government’s Covid programmes, including the furlough scheme, is expected to have cost the taxpayer £15.7billion. However, a fraud expert warned the figure is ‘just the tip of the iceberg’ as more cases emerge.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/fp/fp-ic19blm/impactofcovid-19onbusinessandthelabourmarketq22022/

Key Findings

  • Almost 70% of persons had the same primary employment in Q2 2022 as they had in Q1 2020 if they had never been in receipt of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) or the Wage Subsidy Scheme (WSS). This compares with just over 60% for those who received WSS and just under 40% for those on PUP.
  • More than 80% of recipients of a Government pandemic income support scheme were still in PAYE employment in Q2 2022.
  • Of those who were in payroll employment in Q1 2020, and in receipt of PUP at any time, 4.6% were on the Live Register and not receiving pay from an employer in Q2 2022.
  • In the business economy, four in ten (39.2%) enterprises that availed of a Government pandemic income support scheme had more payroll employees in Q2 2022 than pre-COVID levels in Q1 2020.
  • A quarter (26.9%) of enterprises that did not avail of a Government pandemic income support scheme had more payroll employment in Q2 2022.
  • Of the enterprises that had all staff in receipt of a PUP during the first lockdown, 39.9% had more payroll employees while 21.9% had similar levels of staff in Q2 2022 compared with pre-COVID levels.
  • More than one in five (22.2%) enterprises in Accommodation & Food that availed of a Government pandemic income support scheme had no paid employees in Q2 2022.

I had a look at that one I placed in bold. Table 1.2 shows 80.5% still in employment. Of the rest, 4.6% are now on the Live Register, with 14.9% classed as Other.

Other persons %: The proportion of persons who didn’t fall into any of the above categories. These person’s may have left the labour force or are working in self-employment. These include but are not limited to emigrants, retirees, persons who moved to education/home duties/unpaid maternity leave and deceased persons

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