The Economic Impact of Covid 19


#43

I’m a bit confused about an aspect of this, if anyone was willing to instruct me…

How is there loads of food going rotten because restaurants are closed; surely we are eating the same amount as before? Its just moved from food service to retail?

Even allowing for a lower calorific intake, variations in diet and production/delivery snafus, surely there cant be that much excess food?

Am I missing something obvious here?


#44

Most hotels cook far more food than they ever sell, just look at all the brown bins around the back. The lockdown is exposing this waste for all to see. The costs are simply passed to the customers.


#45

Afaik, market forces should dictate the price, so if there is over supply the price should drop.

That was 1 of the problems with the soviet system and their centrally planned economy. They couldn’t discover the correct price of anything.


#46

Market forces do set the demand from the food producers, the catering trade has set the requirements and the producers have obliged.
The issue is that caterers are expected to have the full menu available at all times, if the customer orders Dover sole ten minutes before closing time the restaurant needs to have one available for him. So they always prepare more than what is needed.
It’s not like they expect 100 customers and they cook a variety of meals sufficient for 100 and if you’re at the back of the queue, you get what’s left.
At the end of each sitting, there is a huge amount of unsold food that is simply thrown away, some places let the staff graze it first.

With the lockdown, that overproduction cannot be absorbed by households as people in general will never cook for six when they’re a family of four.


#47

Have you not heard of the Covid Stone? Or the Covid Stone and a Half around some-parts.


#48

IMC Tallaght wont reopen…interesting that they say other locations not impacted


#49

House of Ireland gone


#50

There is a world of pain to come…it’s only starting…


#51

Retailer Cath Kidston is to shut its 60 UK stores with the loss of more than 900 jobs after a deal was agreed to save its online business but not its shop network. … It confirmed that only 32 of its 940 staff would see their jobs secured as part of the deal.Apr 21, 2020

When the PUP and TWSS in ireland and the Furlough payments stop in Britain .it will as you say bring a world of pain.
The putting back of phase 4 till August (a decision I feel was justified on medical grounds ) will only hasten the demise of more businesses


#52

Reminds me of 2008 when we had a post on the pin announcing business closures. Awful sad for those loosing their jobs, no doubt many more business will fold before we get a vaccine.


#53

We may well see another one of those threads
Plenty of job losses so far
Businesses like the Queens in Dalkey and the Donaghmede Inn are premises I never thought would close


#54

Interesting piece in the IT. Footfall down 90% in Dublin city centre.

Few things to note. This isnt changing any time soon. There will be no switch back to ‘normality’. The city centre will remain a dead zone for many years ie retail is dead. Even a vaccine is not going to reverse the move to working from home.

Interesting also to note business owners lamenting the absence of Government employees ie our version of capitalism is wholly dependant on the State and much of the prosperity of our entrepreneurial class is wholly dependant on salary levels in the public service (Tech sector also).

Working from home is now locked in for many State and Tech employees who, as per above, constitute the vast majority of cash flow for private sector businesses.

Forget the 80s, Dublin city centre will soon resemble the 50s. There will be nothing there in commercial terms meaning there will be little reason to live there ie rents and property between the canals will be decimated…again as per the much of the 20th century (this is why so much social housing was built there to begin with).

It may ultimately reinvent itself in the image of the Georgian era ie as a playground of a quasi aristocratic class who will have benefited from the societal upheaval…but that will take time and the transition will be painful.

The winner here is commuterville and maybe beyond. Broadband and transport accesibility will be key. Will be interesting to observe as retailers/restarateurs etc wake up to all this and see where they identify as alternatives. Remember most of those Tech and State employees will retain employment. They will just be based in locations other than Dublin city centre. As ever those who adapt will prosper. Theres going to be a lot of opportunity for those who get ahead the curve.

On the other hand, those, like the lady in the article above who is calling for Government employees to be sent back to work in town, are finished.


#55

Maybe, I think we over did the lockdown and we should have concentrated our efforts on care homes, by this time next year I expect Dublin to be back to normal, if the second wave of the virus doesn’t arrive, normal will happen sooner


#56

Yes, but the new normal will not be the same as the old normal. Fewer commuters for starters as more people and companies wise up to the fact that productivity can be maintained without enforcing the “office presenteeism” culture.


#57

Productivity hasn’t take much of a hit because a huge cohort of staff were already unproductive - browsing the internet, attending useless meetings or doing tasks that add no value to the business.


#58

The only way this is realistic is if working from home does not continue. The absence of a need to commute into the city centre will result in decimation for the city centre, as per the IT article above.

As ive suggested I think there are opportunities for those who can adapt. Many of those civil servants and tech employees who currently fuel retail and service spending will be buying their sandwiches or coffee in their home commuter towns instead. I think we could see a migration of retail to such locations. And if that happens then the retail and service staff will follow ie why live in Dublin city centre if you work in Carlow or Portlaoise? Plus rents and general cost of living is cheaper anyway.

Even if a vaccine becomes available working from home is unlikely to end post-pandemic. I think its here to stay and i think its going to change the economy to include the service economy that feeds of the basic PS and Tech sectors.


#59

You’re forgetting the one to 17 tourists that visit Dublin, they will be back as soon as it is somewhat possible.

Also, I don’t see that work from home trend continuing to the extend some people think. I see a maximum of 20-30% there.
Not as many people as one might think like working from home for more than a day or 2 per week, max.


#60

Count me as one of them!

Much as I disliked getting on a packed bus into and out of Dublin city centre ten times a week - working from home has been a pain for all kinds of reasons. Longer hours is just one - there seems to be an attitude that since we’ve been spared the commute time that it should be dedicated to the working day instead. The lack of separation between work and home is a major one for me while the social aspect and banter with colleagues is far more important than I would have realized. Those impromptu, unplanned pints after work are sorely missed too!


#62

I think it depends on where you’re commuting from. If youre coming from a Dublin suburb into town it probably wasnt an issue to begin with. But if youre up at 6am each morning and arriving home at 8pm or later its quite likely that youd have a different view.

Onbiously if, as someone else has suggested above, the move to WFH is not as substantial as many are suggesting then my predictions will not be correct. However, if employers see an opportunity to cut back on city centre office rents while maintaining productivity i dont see why they wouldnt push for it.

For what its worth I think its here to stay and as per the IT article, the impact of same on Dublin city centre will be profound.


#63

Personally, I have managed to hit the (for me) perfect balance. I only live about 10 minutes drive from my main place of work and I am currently WFH for 3 full days and two half days, some tasks require a physical presence on site. At home I have a study with two desks, one exclusively set up for work and the other for pleasure, so it is easy to separate the two. Plus FTTH so no internet issues and a quiet house.

Long may the current working conditions continue.

Previous job was in Dublin with a 2.5 hour each way commute by train, absolute nightmare, so I have every sympathy for anyone that has to endure that and I’m sure that they would much prefer WFH over the long commute and all its expense in time and money, not to exclude stress.