The Economic Impact of Covid 19


#64

But is this an encroachment of capital into people’s very homes and private lives in a similar manner to Airbnb? Has anyone who’s working at home had a friend or family member ask them in a phone call “are you at home right now” to pop in for some reason, and hesitated in answering yes because they were “at the office”? Are companies more likely to be eyeing up the opportunity to increase their bottom line through rent saved or deciding on the appropriate compensation for the use of their staff’s property? I know the tech companies have started a few different tokenistic payments and benefits.


#65

I would be more concerned about the possibility that some companies could see the savings you’re making in not commuting as a bargaining chip in the next wage negotiation.


#66

I work for an american IT company and my boss did a survey recently asking how many of us wished to continue working from home once this is over. She said this was being reviewed companywide at the moment.
She did also say careful what you wish for, if we can all work from home then it could be construed as a green light to hire other english speakers in cheaper locations in the future by HQ. Its a valid point.


#67

I am in a similar role, but fortunately part of the job requires a physical presence on site at least twice a week, also local knowledge is required, so that risk of jobs being “offshored” is not as high for many employees.
In most cases, jobs that require zero physical presence have already been offshored.


#68

Irelands Z score has been negative for 8 of the last 9 weeks, at this rate funeral undertakers will become a seasonal business, maybe we can keep the fruitpickers for the winter?


#69

Can work approx 4 days from home. Know that I will not want to do more than 2 in the long term.


#70

I am now in no doubt that we will experience a structural change to the working week. I have had many conversations with decision makers in IT companies, law firms, insurance companies, banks. There is no appetite to go back to the way things were. What is interesting is that there is an age divide - those under 30 would like to get back to the office. Those older have no interest. When asked officially what they would like to do many are saying “3/4 days in the office”. Privately, they believe 1 day or 2 maximum in the office is all that is required. People are used to the extra money in their pocket that they are saving from working from home. Childcare is an issue when there is school going children but if the schools can manage to remain open the trade off is okay.
This is going to be massive for Cities and the cafes / sandwich shops / bars and restaurants that depend on the City workers.
Local shops and cafes are booming since they re-opened.
The impact of this will be massive for the commercial property market and the residential market.


#71

But if we have been taught one lesson comprehensively in the last 10 years, it is that the Commercial and Residential property Market will come first, and to hell with the fallout.

Expecting ‘this time it is different’ is to ignore the overwhelming empirical evidence we have lived through over the last quarter century.

Who owns Dublin or any other city centre. Is there any evidence that they lose out over the long run. WFH and the tech agenda will have it’s wings clipped where necessary. It’s fascinating to watch it unfold.:popcorn:


#72

Just seen in another thread that Google are extending their WFH well into next year, if businesses decide not to continue renting at top prices and vacate, what are the landlords going to do to stop them leaving?


#73

Article here.

Google employees to work from home until summer 2021.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/27/google-employees-work-from-home-order-extended-to-summer-2021---report.html 6

Pandemic payment locked in in Ireland until April 2021 ie State employees wont be back in office until next April at earliest.

I know we’ve heard the phrase employed incorrectly by many over the years, especially when applied to property, but its quite likely that this is in fact ‘a new paradigm’ in terms of work practices…for those who can work online.


#74

Google could hand back the keys on their Dublin premises and the outstanding rent due under the lease would be a rounding figure in their quarterly accounts. The same with Amazon, MS and many others.

Most will negotiate, hand back some space, sub-let. It happens all the time.


#75

They bought the buildings near the bottom. They own many of the ones they occupy on Barrow street. However, Google and any of the tech firms could operate from any other country or location in the morning.


#76

On the under 30s: it must be pretty horrifying for many of them living in house shares-unless they can work together in the common areas they are likely to be in their bedrooms for 15+ hours a day. What if someone wants to watch TV or use a blender? There are also security issues-could people from rival tech companies both work from the same apartment, or a civil servant and private sector employee?
Looking back on my own houseshares, I can think of multiple instances where there would have been conflicts of interest.


#77

I have a few staff that fit that profile. Security issues aside, quite a few aren’t in a happy state. Whilst sick leave hasn’t increased (yet), you can see that many of them are close to burn out - and not because of work load as such.
I am close to forcing some of them to take leave, now that you can at least do some travelling (in Ireland I hasten to add).
Being stuck in your bedroom for days, minus all they social interaction (office, gym, pub, etc.) does not bode well.


#78

https://www.ft.com/content/f7be28a0-ba3c-49d2-ab0c-09c932f32901


#79

As a general reminder to all - please if you post paywalled links included a warning or a quick summary, if there are no alternative sources or use an alternative source.


#80

I think this is the same article
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/swedish-companies-reap-benefits-country-000000203.html

It was supposed to be a terrible start to the summer. As a debate rages in Sweden over whether its lighter-touch approach to managing coronavirus has been the correct course, most European analysts were braced for dreadful quarterly earnings from the Scandinavian country during the height of the pandemic.
But every day for the past two weeks, Swedish company after Swedish company has beaten expectations.
From telecoms equipment maker Ericsson to consumer appliances manufacturer Electrolux via lender Handelsbanken and lockmaker Assa Abloy, Swedish companies have delivered profits well above what the market was expecting, even if in some cases that merely meant a less precipitous decline than analysts had feared.
“I have never seen such a high proportion of companies coming in with better profits than expected. It’s almost every company,” said Esbjorn Lundevall, chief equity strategist at lender SEB.


#81

However Sweden was the country with the 5th highest death rate per million population


#82

But older demographics.

89% of deaths above 70 years old.

Top heavy population pyramid and disease overwhelmingly hits the oldest

They know this which is why Anders Tegnell says they made their mistake was how they handled the care homes, their mistake was not avoiding a lockdown.

I am with the Lord Sumption of the UK who said the lockdown should be voluntary.

You lockdown if you want to.


#83

Now 6th and Swedens data would be far more reliable than say India, Brazil, China, Russia, Iran…

Tegnell always said judge him after a year, I think the ranking will in the absence of a vaccine in the next 6 months, continue to drop even in among european peers. We’re 11th, France is 9th.

The fact that 8 EU countries are in the top 12 globally is revealing?