The Economic Impact of Covid 19


#125

#126

As noted here over the past few months (and following on from many other discussiins on this site over the years) Dublin is a city that has gone all in on the underpinning tenets of globalism.

By this I mean erode the area between the canals as a viable inter-generational living space (think the liberties as perhaps the last example) and rebrand it as a disney land for booze hounds, foreign tech workers and international students.

The new normal is highly unlikely to be compatible with this model.


#127

Again, the very Irish propensity for going all in and placing all the eggs in one basket could be about to bite its proponents in the backside.

Deacdes of minimal support for indigenous business in favour of worshipping at the multi national and tourist altar could potentially result in a similar outcome to property post 2008.

Theres not really any reason for an Indian techie to pay Dublin rents if he can do his job from Delhi, or better Goa. Theres certainly no reason for English boozers to spend weekends in Dublin in socially distanced, 9 euro chicken wing pubs. Likewise Irish American or French or Italian tourists looking for Irish music/culture etc. Ditto the international student who can attend lectures online.

And there would endeth the barista, bar staff, restaurant staff that serve them. Not to mention the over priced rents these service industry employees pay, often in city centre locations.

I think we’re edging closer to the beginnig of such a downward spiral


#128

I note the term ‘edgy’ a few times above - is the city Centre getting rough?


#129

I think a lot of the ‘edginess’ would have previously got lost in the crowd.

The number of rough sleepers, junkies and general heads wont have increased necessarily but their percentage of the population in and around the city centre will have now that theres a lot less people around. Its pretty noticeable, especially after dark.


#130

Is this Dublin, OH or Dublin, CA you’re writing about? Because Dublin, Co. Dublin is almost as unpleasantly packed as it was pre-lockdown and the traffic is definitely getting back to its usual horrendous state in the morning, though I’ll admit that the rush hour is still a bit shorter.


#131

Outside of dublin, it seems busier than before.


#132

Granted everyrhing is subjective and every individual has their own manner of interpreting reality, but I dont think its possible to argue wirh any degree of credibility that current economic avtivity or footfall in Dublin city centre is comparable to pre-pandemic levels …both in subjective observational terms or in statistical terms.

For example, the following IT article again published today, states as follows -

The same article also states that the hospitality sector has contracted by roughly 30 percent.

So, if youre a techie who maybe doesnt live in Dublin, can work remotely for the most part and who possibly travels into Dublin city centre irregularly during office hours, perhaps things remain rosy enough.

However thats clearly not the case across the board and a significant cohort, perhaps even the majority, are experiencing a very different reality.


#133

So was this expected?

Canary time?


#134

Yea.


#135

Is there a requirement for the likes of Google to register a specific number of employees in Ireland in order for them to avail of the Irish Corporation Tax rate? An Irish employee in this instance being one that has an Irish PPS no., Irish bank account and pays Irish income tax etc?

Or can they just have a nominal number registered and located in Dublin with the rest in Goa or The Algarve (for example) and still avail?


#136

Sure wasn’t it one or more of the IFSC operations that had 4 or less people in a registered office running the whole paper shebang of billins n’ billins n’billins, there are surely one or more topics from wayback here and elsewhere on the matter.


#137

No set number required, just ‘substance’ taken to mean offices, employees, board meeting here, all contracts signed here, policy decisions taken here, company seal, combined registers here, etc. Had an audit a couple of years ago with client having 3 employees and turnover of approx $50M - didn’t cause Revenue to comment.


#138

I have no idea what the annual rent was on the building but its fair to say it would a very non material amount to Google given their annual revenues. So this is not a financial decision.
So what is behind the decision - 1) they are negative on Dublin or 2) they are negative on office space generally or 3) a combination of both.

For the funders of this development the key issue is “what this purely speculative development?” or were google signed up for the lease prior to construction commencing.
If it’s the former and this was speculative development of an office building of that size in central Dublin funded by Irish banks there will be serious Zoom calls happening about right now in the credit departments of BOI and AIB.


Google Brothers - Google pulls out of talks to lease 2,000 office spaces in Dublin
#139

Click Google Brothers here for dedicated thread to continue discussion


#140

Would these hotels have generally remained profitable between now and March anyway?

Must be cold in Bundoran in Winter…


#141

They probably would have mad enough cash in the summer to keep the lights on with minimal staff over the winter period. I’d expect to see a lot of these, but only the first few will hit the media I would think.


#142

Uber, But for Evicting People…


#143

Government meeting the main banks today, looking for another blanket payment holiday, how long can that be sustained? If the banks do agree I’m sure they will have their pound of flesh some other way.


#144