THE ECONOMY

Is it smoke and mirrors ? Or is it really a tiger?

From:
rte.ie/news/thisweek/

There is no economy.

That’s been known for years - if the figures are to be believed, we are a nation of software developers. Companies do the coding elsewhere but route the distribution (or something related to the software) thru’ Ireland for the tax breaks.

How exactly do you reconcile statements like that, with your apparent belief that there won’t be big price drops?

infoworld.com/article/07/02/ … tax_1.html

SanDisk Ireland has reported revenue of nearly $1 billion through its Dublin operation. What’s more remarkable is that it has a grand total of 4 people in its workforce here :open_mouth:

Ah goddamnit!

i) I never said there wouldn’t be big price drops, clearly there have been on some properties in some areas. What I said was I don’t believe we’re going to see the bottom fall out of the FTB market significantly. Therefore at €317,500 and under I don’t think there will be an across the board drop of much significance, again some areas, some properties, one beds in Darndale and the like will be hit hard.

ii) As phoenix pointed out, we have quite a significant public sector, which doesn’t really add much value to the economy but will help to stabilise and has in the past, helped to stabilise things generally. Thus providing a base for that latent FTB demand.

I also think in Dublin and the surrounding area, builders will work to effectively strangle supply to keep prices up.

Now thats efficiency!

Lets say we head hunt those four and become billionaires ourselves!

:laughing:

Another report warning of the risks associated with falling competitiveness, over reliance on construction and migratory outflows.

freshplaza.com/2007/0228/ec_ie_reversalrisk.htm

But wait…

What the hell are we worrying about? :unamused:

I think you overestimate the ability and inclination of builders to act in a cartelistic manner in the Dublin area. Theres so many developers looking out for themselves and capable of breaking any overt or covert cartel. Most are highly leveraged and will want to get as much for the units in the pipeline as soon as possible in case prices keep falling.

To paraphrase Billy Joel…

“You may be right, I might be crazy or it might just be a lunatic, you’re looking for!!!” :smiley:

Yep. All fair in War and Selling.

There is of course an economy … why else would there be so many people employed.

As for

the answer is quite simple … he’s right (how else does Microsoft Ireland make more profit than Microsoft Germany?) and the reason is 12.5% corporation tax and a little book keeping trick called Transfer Pricing.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transfer_pricing

Anyone who’s worked in a management role for a multinational in Ireland will be familiar with the procedure.

Blue Horseshoe

That is one astonishing statistic. I wonder how many boyos in white vans it would take to generate that kind of revenue?

Prevent revolution. :wink:

I think everyone is familar with transfer pricing at this stage. Yes there is employment in the country but a lot is in likes of retail, construction and overstaffed public sector. If employment in construction halves in a short period the knock on effects in other sectors would see unemployment rocket. And if the multinationals start leaving in greater numbers I don’t think we can create significant alternative employment in the short run.

Retail / Services - 70%

Construction - 12%

Public Sector - 8%

Manufacturing - 4-6%

Unemployed = The rest…

Just to recap like… :wink:

I often pass through Kilkenny on my journeys.On the Kilkenny ring road there is a retail park with seven units.
One unit is toy shop,one unit is unocupied,the rest are as follows,
Woodies,
Hickeys home focus,
DiD Electrical,
Land of leather,
Carpetright.
So it might be interesting to know exactly how much of the 70% retail is connected to construction.

Its also worth remembering that a lot of Irish manufacturing is for the construction industry,blocks,windows,doors,kitchens are nearly all made in Ireland and come under the heading manufacturing and not construction.

That’s the great intangible how dependent the economy is on house building, mortgage ‘equity’ release etc. I think we are about to find out. :frowning: