The Final Countdown - Speculation on Irish bailout EU/IMF


#425

The IMF coming here will end very badly, have a look at this 2 minute cartoon, the similarity to Ireland is quite scary. Were Berts, Brian and Conor our economic hitmen? I hope they enjoy the layer of privilege they think they secured for themselves.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7Fzm1hEiDQ


#426

The IMF playbook hasn’t really changed … The path is in general the same…

Will we be ticking the box in 9 months time in relation to FG… A change in leadership but heh still stuck with the debt obligations… Promises promises promises, where have I heard that before…

Time will tell…Let’s be Positive for now…


#427

And as expected, the sell off in our forests, planes, gas pipelines, and other stuff we thought were ours is imminent, not for jobs of course, to pay off a tiny portion of our debt, which no one can figure out who is the man we owe it to, hoping in any case he’d forget about it, whoever he is. Well he hasn’t fprgotten:
thejournal.ie/government-urg … 1-Jan2012/
Since FG promised this wouldn’t happen, that means this is the part where we rise up and kick them out, right?


#428

h/t economy.ie (in turn h/t’ing NWL)

#vinb makes ecb rep masuch look like a guilty schoolboy @18mins+

rte.ie/news/av/2012/0119/media-3172722.html#


#429

Goddamnit!
Golden opportunity for the next person to say “before I ask my question could you answer Vinnies question first?”

If any press pass folk reading this, organise the next time…


#430

yeah flashmob the wonkers!


#431

Yes szekely looks like the schoolboy who should have been accused also by the headmaster but is sniggering while his mate takes the hit.


#432

Michael Noonan wants to ‘engage seriously’ with Troika on bailout exit strategy

rte.ie/news/2013/0709/461349-imf-eurozone/


#433

So he’s only been messin up til now.


#434

Turnin’ up locked for the craic apparently.


#435

Any thoughts on whether leaving the bailout programme, and not opting for a 2nd one, is a good thing or not?

I believe Ierland is pre funded for nearly all of 2014 needs at this stage.

If we do leave the bailout, we should be able to get semi ok rates but the market is very volatile


#436

The govt will probably line up a fresh bailout-in-principle billed as a “precautionary credit line” in advance of the next SPIG meltdown.


#437

europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-13-703_en.htm


#438

I have said this a few times - I predict:

  • A victorious “exit” complete with government photocalls and lots of smug handshakes
  • A giveaway budget
  • Bond yields go batshit when someone realises the deficit we’re running
  • Bailout 2

#439

That looks like four corners successfully turned there mantissa.


#440

+1

The second bailout will happen when the banks need recapitalizing and the bond markets turn again.

Whether Ireland likes it or not, our bond prices are relative to PIIGS, just because the global economy is going through a quiet spell it doesn’t mean that it’s all over. In fact we could just be in the eye of the storm.

$shit is bound to kick off again by the end of the year, this to be mostly driven by the US & UK banks who take huge short positions on Europe. They will be paying themselves a hefty Christmas bonus for fecking up everyones economy.


#441

What **other **challenges were there?


#442

independent.ie/business/iris … 32087.html

Splurge in spending and debt levels raises new questions on bailout exit


#443

Strange one from the Indo, usually trying to push positivity to infer house prices will rise

Obviously couldn’t resist a kick at a non-FF government

Edited to add: They’ll have a field day if (when IMO) we need Bailout II. FG/Labour blew it etc conveniently forgetting who lead us into Bailout I


#444

well with all the money printing chasing yield they might not need a bailout straight away.

The interest payments would be the easisest to cut, chances of that happening zero

NWL had an article on this a while back

namawinelake.wordpress.com/2013/ … t-on-debt/

apart from the promissory note debacle buying short term relief for long term disater the interest bill is still huge

IT take on it
irishtimes.com/business/sect … -1.1468277
The bill in 2012 was 6.5 billion in a year when the state borrowed 18.5bn. So the state has to borrow $ to pay the interest, good stuff, paying interest on interest! in these sorts of situations u probaly better engaging in some sort of default and freezing interest payments until economy improves

NTMA

irishexaminer.com/business/n … 37331.html

interest rates of 3.84% at present , ireland fully funded for 12 months. the last time i heard that was a few months before ireland signed up to teh troika