I don’t see it is a credible figure. I bloody hope it isn’t!
The figure for the guarantee eventually expanded to 650 bn euro, I believe. This was a guarantee of what was owed by the Irish banks to all sources. So I’d say that’s an upper ceiling. I don’t believe all of this is external, however, I think we should take our lead from sovereign bonds - an 80/20 split foreign/domestic, so the figure could be a large as 520 bn euro. And on to that, you add national debt (100 bn), NAMA bonds, 40 bn, promissory notes (30 bn)… so it is a number so large that if you started to spin it, it would suck all known creation into itself.