While the country is going down the sh*ter Dick Roche uses standard FF diversionary tactics and has a pop at the Irish Times for their board’s financial mismanagement of their company:
I hear you but on the other side of that depends on peoples bullshit tolerance levels. This is rapid collapse and FFs priority is to somehow save face. If they do the deal, a loan, a bailout, whatever they want to call it, they know the changes that follow will wipe them out at the polls. But if they save some face now they’ll always have the deluded. So strategy wise, it is now time to consider revving up the rotors for a FF airlift to exile where a later comeback can be planned. It’s retreat time.
The IMF don’t care whose legs are under the table as long as there’s someone there. The EU want stability, “either we all hanger together or we hang separately”.
Just thinking about the implication of taking 80bln off the EU/IMF at 5% in return for gradually weaning the banks off the 150bln area ECB funding at 1%.
Equates to about another 2%+ of GDP each year in extra interest charges alone. This is not an insignificant addition to the structural deficit every year.
Who pays for this?
The taxpayer? Through even more austerity. Unlikely, surely this one is already tapped out to the max
The Banks? Through higher mortgage costs etc. Quite possible
Looks like the days of funding the bank losses at negligible cost are over
Or to put it another way…
The banks have had infinite ability to fund their mortgage book at 1% and charge 3.5-4.5% on a mortgage. And still after loan losses they still lose money
Now those loans are being replaced by 5% funding. The breakeven mortgage rate after losses needs to be 10%
Obviously someone is going to have to fund this ‘hole’. Guess it will be the taxpayer!
@McQueen, how many years do you think it’ll take Ireland to clear the bulk of this death?
Brian Lucey’s very much against this and sees it for what it is - debt on top of debt. It’s not even like those debt consolidation adverts you see is it? It’s more just “here, have this amount if you want”.
"…a landing in Ireland can be attempted only if Ireland requests help. For the present our envoy must ascertain whether De Valera desires support…" Adolf Hitler, 1940.
Well, the countries (Sov+Banks) “blended” borrowing rate will have risen dramatically. 80bln moving from 1% (a level close to the growth rate in our economy) to 5% (a level well above the growth rate in our economy)… means that we sink further into debt every year, as the debt is growing faster then our ability to pay it off. Naturally something has to give as we cant just keep growing debts and putting pressure on the economy through austerity in the hope of paying it off.
This is just another example of Europe…“kicking the can down the road”. The end game will be the same… except we will have a sicker economy and a greater debt load by that time.
So we have moved from “We don’t need emergency funds, so everything’s grand” to “We have emergency funds, but we haven’t used them yet, so everything’s grand”.
Let us be clear, Fianna Fail have invited the IMF here.
Since they can not admit it themselves it is up to us to tell them the truth. Therefore we are negotiating with the IMF. That is all that is important. The idea they are fighting for “our” interests is a moot point. If they had they would never had to invite the IMF here nor would they be fighting tooth and nail to protect “Corporation Tax”
Ironically, “Let’s be clear” is a favorite phrase used by Lenihan.
I would also like to point out one of our regular users here contacted me mid September of 2010 and indicate they had two separate and clear sources form inside our government that indicated that a larger contingent of IMF would be here in November and that 4 representativeness had already been stationed here.
Let us be clear, this is not something that happened over night. For the record like.
The established that Fianna Fail have invited the IMF here begs the question which they do not move to is should Fianna Fail be negotiating on our behalf the answer is NO.