The Final Countdown - Speculation on Irish bailout EU/IMF


#422 … nt=Twitter


The questions that are worrying us are to a large extent irrelevant.

Portugal will shortly find itself in our position. That much is sure.

The key though is Spain. The bond markets may or may not force it to seek a bail out.
Rationally speaking it should not need one. The markets have been anything but rational.
If Spain goes the pressure transfers to Germany and to the electorate that decided to use us as a penal battalion in its fight with the markets.
Then and only then will Europe get the quantative easing that is the only sensible way out of these difficulties.

If Spain does not go under then the only possible consequence of Germany’s current stance is a two tier euro.

No one proposing the currently fashionable default/burning option knows what consequences it would have for us.
It is better therefore to cooperate, argue our case but do nothing to annoy the powers that be and hope that Spain ushers in Gotterdamerung.

Our futures depend on a number.


In a couple of months we’ll wonder how we ever got so worked up about the terms of this deal.

As I said to Ajai in the Merrion on Friday night there’s nothing to worry about. Spain will save us.



The IMF coming here will end very badly, have a look at this 2 minute cartoon, the similarity to Ireland is quite scary. Were Berts, Brian and Conor our economic hitmen? I hope they enjoy the layer of privilege they think they secured for themselves.


The IMF playbook hasn’t really changed … The path is in general the same…

Will we be ticking the box in 9 months time in relation to FG… A change in leadership but heh still stuck with the debt obligations… Promises promises promises, where have I heard that before…

Time will tell…Let’s be Positive for now…


And as expected, the sell off in our forests, planes, gas pipelines, and other stuff we thought were ours is imminent, not for jobs of course, to pay off a tiny portion of our debt, which no one can figure out who is the man we owe it to, hoping in any case he’d forget about it, whoever he is. Well he hasn’t fprgotten: … 1-Jan2012/
Since FG promised this wouldn’t happen, that means this is the part where we rise up and kick them out, right?


h/t (in turn h/t’ing NWL)

#vinb makes ecb rep masuch look like a guilty schoolboy @18mins+


Golden opportunity for the next person to say “before I ask my question could you answer Vinnies question first?”

If any press pass folk reading this, organise the next time…


yeah flashmob the wonkers!


Yes szekely looks like the schoolboy who should have been accused also by the headmaster but is sniggering while his mate takes the hit.


Michael Noonan wants to ‘engage seriously’ with Troika on bailout exit strategy


So he’s only been messin up til now.


Turnin’ up locked for the craic apparently.


Any thoughts on whether leaving the bailout programme, and not opting for a 2nd one, is a good thing or not?

I believe Ierland is pre funded for nearly all of 2014 needs at this stage.

If we do leave the bailout, we should be able to get semi ok rates but the market is very volatile


The govt will probably line up a fresh bailout-in-principle billed as a “precautionary credit line” in advance of the next SPIG meltdown.



I have said this a few times - I predict:

  • A victorious “exit” complete with government photocalls and lots of smug handshakes
  • A giveaway budget
  • Bond yields go batshit when someone realises the deficit we’re running
  • Bailout 2


That looks like four corners successfully turned there mantissa.



The second bailout will happen when the banks need recapitalizing and the bond markets turn again.

Whether Ireland likes it or not, our bond prices are relative to PIIGS, just because the global economy is going through a quiet spell it doesn’t mean that it’s all over. In fact we could just be in the eye of the storm.

$shit is bound to kick off again by the end of the year, this to be mostly driven by the US & UK banks who take huge short positions on Europe. They will be paying themselves a hefty Christmas bonus for fecking up everyones economy.